COVID-19 UK Lockdown Forecasts and R ₀.

ABSTRACT: Introduction: The first reported UK case of COVID-19 occurred on 30 January 2020. A lockdown from 24 March was partially relaxed on 10 May. One model to forecast disease spread depends on clinical parameters and transmission rates. Output includes the basic reproduction number R ₀ and the log growth rate r in the exponential phase. Methods: Office for National Statistics data on deaths in England and Wales is used to estimate r. A likelihood for the transmission parameters is defined from a gaussian density for r using the mean and standard error of the estimate. Parameter samples from the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm lead to an estimate and credible interval for R ₀ and forecasts for cases and deaths.

SUBMITTER: Dropkin G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7274132 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature