Dataset Information

Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades.

ABSTRACT: Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982-2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shorter than, the time required for a statistically significant positive global TC intensity trend to appear. Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979-2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir-Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade.

SUBMITTER: Kossin JP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7275711 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades.

Kossin James P JP Knapp Kenneth R KR Olander Timothy L TL Velden Christopher S CS

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20200518 22

Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982-2009. The 28-y homogenized record ...[more]

PMID: 32424081

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Project description:BackgroundRapid growth of the integration of technology and psychotherapeutic interventions has been noted, but no clear quantification of this growth has been done.AimsThis bibliometric analysis seeks to quantify the growth, trends, and applications of technology in psychotherapeutic interventions over the last 40 years.MethodsSearches were conducted in the Web of Science (WOS) database for all existing technology-psychotherapy-related publications from 1981 to October 2020. Search terms were refined using a systematic screening strategy, based upon Cochrane protocol, generating 52 technology terms. Analyses across 40 years and by decade from 1981 to 2020 were conducted.ResultsA total of 13,934 peer-reviewed articles were identified. Yearly publication rate has increased from one in 1981 to 1902 by October 2020. The growth rate of publications across decades consistently tripled in size (762.50% from the 1980s to 1990s, 539.71% from the 1990s to 2000s, and 337.24% from the 2000s to 2010s). The author, country, journal, and institution with the most publications were Andersson, G., USA, Journal of Medical Internet Research, and Karolinska Institute, respectively. The most frequent technology search term across all four decades was "internet*." The trends in percentages of peer-reviewed publications within each decade showed: 1) a declining trend for the term "computer," 2) an upward trend for the combined terms, "internet," "online," and "web," 3) and a steady but smaller proportion of publications for other terms ("cell phone," "phone/telephone," "technology," "video," "virtual reality or VR," "apps," "digital," "machine learning," "electronic," "robo," and "telehealth").DiscussionThe rapid growth and trends identified in technology and psychotherapy publications can inform related policies addressing the role of technology in mental health. Moreover, pattern analyses may provide direction for a standard nomenclature to address terminology usage inconsistencies across the field.

Dataset Information

Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades.

Publications

Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades.

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