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Survival model methods for analyses of cancer incidence trends in young adults.

ABSTRACT: Recent studies have reported increases in cancer incidence in adults under 50?years. However, there remains uncertainty about whether these are true increases or a result of incidental findings from increased medical imaging. To evaluate these trends, we propose an alternative method to age-period-cohort analyses based on survival modeling. Simulations show that our method is capable of quantifying cohort effects within various backgrounds including increasing medical imaging. We applied the method to analyze the changes in cancer incidence rates for 44 anatomic sites, stratified by sex, by birth cohort for individuals born from 1945 to 1969 in the US based on incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, and tested the validity of our models using later birth cohorts (1970-1974 and 1975-1979). We found that cancer risks have increased significantly in 15 sites (9 in men and 11 in women) for 25-49?year-olds. These results were consistent with previous findings from age-period-cohort analyses. Furthermore, based on our simulations, these increases were independent of increased medical imaging and support substantial, increased extrinsic risks in the identified cancers. Although our approach has several limitations including the restriction to the younger age range and requirement of complete data for all ages of interest, we demonstrate many advantages of our approach including the ease in implementation and interpretation of cohort effects, robustness to various period backgrounds, and ability to make predictions. Our approach should help epidemiologists evaluate cohort effects using incidence data for cancer or other diseases.

SUBMITTER: Yang W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7288576 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Survival model methods for analyses of cancer incidence trends in young adults.

Yang Wan W Kehm Rebecca D RD Terry Mary Beth MB

Statistics in medicine 20200205 7

Recent studies have reported increases in cancer incidence in adults under 50 years. However, there remains uncertainty about whether these are true increases or a result of incidental findings from increased medical imaging. To evaluate these trends, we propose an alternative method to age-period-cohort analyses based on survival modeling. Simulations show that our method is capable of quantifying cohort effects within various backgrounds including increasing medical imaging. We applied the met ...[more]

PMID: 32022306

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Project description:ImportancePrevious studies have demonstrated that adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with cancer are a distinct cancer population; however, research on long-term epidemiological trends and characteristics of cancers in AYAs is lacking.ObjectiveTo characterize the epidemiology of cancer in AYAs aged 15 to 39 years with respect to (1) patient demographic characteristics, (2) frequencies of cancer types, and (3) cancer incidence trends over time.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective, serial cross-sectional, population-based study used registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from January 1, 1973, to December 31, 2015 (SEER 9 and SEER 18). The study population was from geographically distinct US regions, chosen to represent the racial and ethnic heterogeneity of the country. Initial analyses were performed from January 1 to August 31, 2019.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence rates and descriptive epidemiological statistics for patients aged 15 to 39 years with invasive cancer.ResultsA total of 497 452 AYAs diagnosed from 1973 to 2015 were included in this study, with 293 848 (59.1%) female and 397 295 (79.9%) White participants. As AYAs aged, an increase in the relative incidence of carcinomas and decrease in the relative incidence of leukemias, lymphomas, germ cell and trophoblastic neoplasms, and neoplasms of the central nervous system occurred. Among the female AYAs, 72 564 (24.7%) were diagnosed with breast carcinoma; 48 865 (16.6%), thyroid carcinoma; and 33 828 (11.5%), cervix and uterus carcinoma. Among the male AYAs, 37 597 (18.5%) were diagnosed with testicular cancer; 20 850 (10.2%), melanoma; and 19 532 (9.6%), non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The rate of cancer in AYAs increased by 29.6% from 1973 to 2015, with a mean annual percentage change (APC) per 100 000 persons of 0.537 (95% CI, 0.426-0.648; P < .001). Kidney carcinoma increased at the greatest rate for both male (APC, 3.572; 95% CI, 3.049-4.097; P < .001) and female (APC, 3.632; 95% CI, 3.105-4.162; P < .001) AYAs.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional, US population-based study, cancer in AYAs was shown to have a unique epidemiological pattern and is a growing health concern, with many cancer subtypes having increased in incidence from 1973 to 2015. Continued research on AYA cancers is important to understanding and addressing the distinct health concerns of this population.

Project description:BackgroundColorectal cancer incidence in the UK and other high-income countries has been increasing rapidly among young adults. This is the first analysis of colorectal cancer incidence trends by sub-site and socioeconomic deprivation in young adults in a European country.MethodsWe examined age-specific national trends in colorectal cancer incidence among all adults (20-99 years) diagnosed during 1971-2014, using Joinpoint regression to analyse data from the population-based cancer registry for England. We fitted a generalised linear model to the incidence rates, with a maximum of two knots. We present the annual percentage change in incidence rates in up to three successive calendar periods, by sex, age, deprivation and anatomical sub-site.ResultsAnnual incidence rates among the youngest adults (20-39 years) fell slightly between 1971 and the early 1990s, but increased rapidly from then onwards. Incidence Rates (IR) among adults 20-29 years rose from 0.8 per 100,000 in 1993 to 2.8 per 100,000 in 2014, an average annual increase of 8%. An annual increase of 8.1% was observed for adults aged 30-39 years during 2005-2014. Among the two youngest age groups (20-39 years), the average annual increase for the right colon was 5.2% between 1991 and 2010, rising to 19.4% per year between 2010 (IR = 1.2) and 2014 (IR = 2.5). The large increase in incidence rates for cancers of the right colon since 2010 were more marked among the most affluent young adults. Smaller but substantial increases were observed for cancers of the left colon and rectum. Incidence rates in those aged 50 years and older remained stable or decreased over the same periods.ConclusionsDespite the overall stabilising trend of colorectal cancer incidence in England, incidence rates have increased rapidly among young adults (aged 20-39 years). Changes in the prevalence of obesity and other risk factors may have affected the young population but more research is needed on the cause of the observed birth cohort effect. Extension of mass screening may not be justifiable due to the low number of newly diagnosed cases but clinicians should be alert to this trend.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough landmark studies in the 1990s demonstrated that adolescents and young adults (AYAs, ages 15-39 years) with cancer had lower survival improvement compared to other ages, therapeutic advances warrant reappraisal of those observations. We utilized more recent data to study site-specific AYA survival trends and disparities and gain a more contemporary understanding of this problem.MethodsUsing California Cancer Registry data from 1988 to 2014, we calculated 1) 5-year overall survival improvement for AYAs compared to other age groups; 2) hazard ratios (HRs) of death for AYAs comparing 2001-2014 with 1988-2000 stratified by site, stage, sex, age group, race and ethnicity, and socioeconomic status (SES); and 3) site-specific adjusted HRs (aHRs) for AYA risk groups and interaction analyses by time period.ResultsFor all cancers combined, AYAs demonstrated survival improvement that exceeded all other age groups, largely due to reduced mortality in human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-related cancers. The strongest predictor of death was cancer stage (aHR = 6.32 for distant vs localized, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.20 to 6.45). The aHR of death was statistically significantly higher for blacks (1.46, 95% CI = 1.42 to 1.50), Asian and Pacific Islanders (1.12, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.15), and Latino whites (1.06, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.08) compared to non-Latino whites, and was statistically significantly higher for low SES compared to high (1.31, 95% CI = 1.29 to 1.34). Survival disparities by stage, race and ethnicity, and SES worsened over time.ConclusionsFor AYAs in aggregate, the historical cancer survival improvement gap has been closed. However, the growing survival disparities in AYA subsets reported here, including advanced stage disease, racial and ethnic minorities, and low SES, highlight new priorities in need of increased attention, including inequities in cancer care and delivery within this vulnerable population.

Project description:BackgroundFor adolescents and young adults (AYAs, aged 15-39 years) with cancer, metastatic disease at diagnosis is the strongest predictor of mortality, but its associations with age and sociodemographic factors are largely unexplored.MethodsUsing Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program data from 2000 to 2016, we collected incident cases of poor-prognosis metastatic cancer (5-year survival < 50%) and compared the proportion, incidence, time trends, and incidence rate ratios for race and ethnicity, sex, and socioeconomic status among AYAs, middle-aged adults (aged 40-64 years) and older adults (aged 65-79 years).ResultsFrom 2000 to 2016, a total of 17 210 incident cases of poor-prognosis metastatic cancer were diagnosed in AYAs, 121 274 in middle-aged adults, and 364 228 in older adults. Compared with older patients, the proportion of AYAs having metastatic disease was equivalent or substantially lower in nearly every site except stomach and breast cancers, which were statistically significantly higher for AYAs compared with middle-aged and older adults (stomach: 57.3% vs 46.4% and 39.5%; breast: 6.6% vs 4.4% and 5.6%, respectively; 2-sided P < .001 for all comparisons). Incidence rates rose significantly faster among AYAs for breast, stomach, and kidney cancers and among AYAs and middle-aged adults for colorectal cancer. Markedly higher incidence rate ratios were noted for AYA racial and ethnic minorities with breast, stomach, and especially kidney cancer, where only non-Hispanic Black AYAs were at considerably higher risk. For most sites, incidence rate ratios were higher among male patients and individuals of low socioeconomic status across age groups.ConclusionsFor most cancers, AYAs are not more likely to present with metastases than middle-aged and older adults. Further investigation is warranted for the disproportionate rise in incidence of metastatic breast, stomach, and kidney cancer among AYAs and their excess burden among AYA racial and ethnic minorities. The rising incidence of colorectal cancer among AYAs and middle-aged adults remains an additional concern.

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Survival model methods for analyses of cancer incidence trends in young adults.

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Survival model methods for analyses of cancer incidence trends in young adults.

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