International Trends in the Incidence of Cancer Among Adolescents and Young Adults.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Although adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancers represent a unique spectrum of malignancies, epidemiological studies of cancer incidence often group AYAs together with younger or older populations, obscuring patterns specific to this population.Methods
We examined AYA cancer incidence trends in 41 countries over a 15-year period using the CI5plus database. Truncated age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and the annual percentage change was assessed, with statistical significance corresponding to a 95% confidence interval that does not include zero.Results
From 1998 to 2012, the 41 included countries contributed a total of 1 846 588 cancer cases and 3.1 billion person-years among AYAs. Although statistically significant increases in the overall cancer burden were observed in 23 countries, the magnitude varied considerably, with the greatest increase in incidence observed in South Korea (annual percentage change2002-2012 = 8.5%, 95% confidence interval = 7.6% to 9.4%) due to thyroid cancer. Notable trends included sharp increases in the incidence of obesity-related malignancies among AYAs; indeed, statistically significant increases were observed among AYAs for 10 of 11 and 9 of 11 obesity-related cancer sites in the US and UK, respectively, with at least five obesity-related cancers statistically significantly increasing in Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Netherlands. Other striking trends were noted for thyroid and testicular cancer, with statistically significantly increasing rates observed in 33 and 22 countries, respectively, whereas statistically significant declines in incidence were observed for smoking-related cancers, cervical cancer, and Kaposi sarcoma in many countries.Conclusions
Our results highlight the future health-care needs related to treatment as well as the urgency for public health initiatives that can mitigate the increasing burden of cancer in AYAs.
SUBMITTER: Gupta S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7669231 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ImportancePrevious studies have demonstrated that adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with cancer are a distinct cancer population; however, research on long-term epidemiological trends and characteristics of cancers in AYAs is lacking.ObjectiveTo characterize the epidemiology of cancer in AYAs aged 15 to 39 years with respect to (1) patient demographic characteristics, (2) frequencies of cancer types, and (3) cancer incidence trends over time.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective, serial cross-sectional, population-based study used registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from January 1, 1973, to December 31, 2015 (SEER 9 and SEER 18). The study population was from geographically distinct US regions, chosen to represent the racial and ethnic heterogeneity of the country. Initial analyses were performed from January 1 to August 31, 2019.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence rates and descriptive epidemiological statistics for patients aged 15 to 39 years with invasive cancer.ResultsA total of 497 452 AYAs diagnosed from 1973 to 2015 were included in this study, with 293 848 (59.1%) female and 397 295 (79.9%) White participants. As AYAs aged, an increase in the relative incidence of carcinomas and decrease in the relative incidence of leukemias, lymphomas, germ cell and trophoblastic neoplasms, and neoplasms of the central nervous system occurred. Among the female AYAs, 72 564 (24.7%) were diagnosed with breast carcinoma; 48 865 (16.6%), thyroid carcinoma; and 33 828 (11.5%), cervix and uterus carcinoma. Among the male AYAs, 37 597 (18.5%) were diagnosed with testicular cancer; 20 850 (10.2%), melanoma; and 19 532 (9.6%), non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The rate of cancer in AYAs increased by 29.6% from 1973 to 2015, with a mean annual percentage change (APC) per 100 000 persons of 0.537 (95% CI, 0.426-0.648; P < .001). Kidney carcinoma increased at the greatest rate for both male (APC, 3.572; 95% CI, 3.049-4.097; P < .001) and female (APC, 3.632; 95% CI, 3.105-4.162; P < .001) AYAs.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional, US population-based study, cancer in AYAs was shown to have a unique epidemiological pattern and is a growing health concern, with many cancer subtypes having increased in incidence from 1973 to 2015. Continued research on AYA cancers is important to understanding and addressing the distinct health concerns of this population.
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Project description:BackgroundIncreasing incidence and lack of survival improvement in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with cancer have led to increased awareness of the cancer burden in this population. The objective of this study was to describe overall and type-specific cancer incidence and mortality trends among AYAs in Western Australia from 1982-2007.MethodsAge-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were calculated for all malignancies combined and for each of the most common diagnostic groups, using five-year age-specific rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to derive annual percentage changes (APC) for incidence and mortality rates.ResultsThe annual incidence rate for all cancers combined increased in males from 1982 until 2000 (APC = 1.5%, 95%CI: 0.9%; 2.1%) and then plateaued, whilst rates for females remained stable across the study period (APC = -0.1%; 95%CI: -0.2%; 0.4%) across the study period. For males, significant incidence rate increases were observed for germ cell tumors, lymphoblastic leukemia and thyroid cancer. In females, the incidence of Hodgkin's lymphoma, colorectal and breast cancers increased. Significant incidence rate reductions were noted for cervical, central nervous system and lung cancers. Mortality rates for all cancers combined decreased from 1982 to 2005 for both males (APC = -2.6%, 95%CI:-3.3%;-2.0%) and females (APC = -4.6%, 95%CI:-5.1%;-4.1%). With the exception of bone sarcoma and lung cancer in females, mortality rates for specific cancer types decreased significantly for both sexes during the study period.ConclusionsIncidence of certain AYA cancers increased, whilst it decreased for others. Mortality rates decreased for most cancers, with the largest improvement observed for breast carcinomas. Further research is needed to identify the reasons for the increasing incidence of certain cancers.
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Project description:BackgroundFor adolescents and young adults (AYAs, aged 15-39 years) with cancer, metastatic disease at diagnosis is the strongest predictor of mortality, but its associations with age and sociodemographic factors are largely unexplored.MethodsUsing Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program data from 2000 to 2016, we collected incident cases of poor-prognosis metastatic cancer (5-year survival < 50%) and compared the proportion, incidence, time trends, and incidence rate ratios for race and ethnicity, sex, and socioeconomic status among AYAs, middle-aged adults (aged 40-64 years) and older adults (aged 65-79 years).ResultsFrom 2000 to 2016, a total of 17 210 incident cases of poor-prognosis metastatic cancer were diagnosed in AYAs, 121 274 in middle-aged adults, and 364 228 in older adults. Compared with older patients, the proportion of AYAs having metastatic disease was equivalent or substantially lower in nearly every site except stomach and breast cancers, which were statistically significantly higher for AYAs compared with middle-aged and older adults (stomach: 57.3% vs 46.4% and 39.5%; breast: 6.6% vs 4.4% and 5.6%, respectively; 2-sided P < .001 for all comparisons). Incidence rates rose significantly faster among AYAs for breast, stomach, and kidney cancers and among AYAs and middle-aged adults for colorectal cancer. Markedly higher incidence rate ratios were noted for AYA racial and ethnic minorities with breast, stomach, and especially kidney cancer, where only non-Hispanic Black AYAs were at considerably higher risk. For most sites, incidence rate ratios were higher among male patients and individuals of low socioeconomic status across age groups.ConclusionsFor most cancers, AYAs are not more likely to present with metastases than middle-aged and older adults. Further investigation is warranted for the disproportionate rise in incidence of metastatic breast, stomach, and kidney cancer among AYAs and their excess burden among AYA racial and ethnic minorities. The rising incidence of colorectal cancer among AYAs and middle-aged adults remains an additional concern.
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Project description:Recent studies have reported increases in cancer incidence in adults under 50?years. However, there remains uncertainty about whether these are true increases or a result of incidental findings from increased medical imaging. To evaluate these trends, we propose an alternative method to age-period-cohort analyses based on survival modeling. Simulations show that our method is capable of quantifying cohort effects within various backgrounds including increasing medical imaging. We applied the method to analyze the changes in cancer incidence rates for 44 anatomic sites, stratified by sex, by birth cohort for individuals born from 1945 to 1969 in the US based on incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, and tested the validity of our models using later birth cohorts (1970-1974 and 1975-1979). We found that cancer risks have increased significantly in 15 sites (9 in men and 11 in women) for 25-49?year-olds. These results were consistent with previous findings from age-period-cohort analyses. Furthermore, based on our simulations, these increases were independent of increased medical imaging and support substantial, increased extrinsic risks in the identified cancers. Although our approach has several limitations including the restriction to the younger age range and requirement of complete data for all ages of interest, we demonstrate many advantages of our approach including the ease in implementation and interpretation of cohort effects, robustness to various period backgrounds, and ability to make predictions. Our approach should help epidemiologists evaluate cohort effects using incidence data for cancer or other diseases.
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Project description:BackgroundLack of cancer incidence information for adolescents and young adults led us to describe incidence trends within the young population of 15 to 49 year-olds in urban Shanghai between 1973 and 2005.MethodsDuring 1973 to 2005, data on 43,009 (45.8%) male and 50,828 (54.2%) female cancer cases aged 15-49 years from the Shanghai Cancer Registry were analyzed. Five-year age-specific rates, world age-standardized rates, percent change (PC), and annual percent change (APC) were calculated using annual data on population size and its estimated age structure.ResultsDuring the 33-year study period, overall cancer incidence of adolescents and young adults among males marginally decreased by 0.5% per year (P<0.05). However, overall cancer incidence for females slightly increased by 0.8% per year (P<0.05). The leading cancer for males in rank were liver, stomach, lung, colorectal, and nasopharyngeal cancers and for females were breast, stomach, colorectal, thyroid, and ovarian cancers. Among specific sites, incidence rates significantly decreased for cancers of the esophagus, stomach, and liver in both sexes. In contrast, incidence rates significantly increased for kidney cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and brain and nervous system tumors in both sexes and increased for breast and ovarian cancers among females.ConclusionsOverall cancer incidence rates of adolescents and young adults decreased in males whereas they increased in females. Our findings suggest the importance of further epidemiology and etiologic studies to further elucidate factors contributing to the cancer incidence trends of adolescents and young adults in China.
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Project description:BackgroundEstimating the future incidence of cancer is important to establish sufficient service provision, however, work in this area is limited for cancer in children, adolescents, and young adults (aged 0-24).MethodsAge-period-cohort models were applied to cancer incidence rates for the period 1971-2013 in England. This allowed us to extrapolate past trends to 2030. We used the appropriate cancer classification developed for cancers in children and young adults, which are analysed as two separate groups to capture inherent differences.ResultsThe data set consisted of 119 485 records (55% among 15+ years group). Overall, cancer rates have increased over time and are expected to continue to rise into the future. Of particular interest is the increase in rates of germ cell tumours (in males) and carcinomas (in females) in young adults, since their rates are projected to further increase over time.ConclusionsThe estimated future incidence rates provide a baseline for different cancer subtypes, which will allow policymakers to develop a contingency plan to deal with future demands.
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Project description:In most high-resource countries with organized screening programs, the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer is decreasing. Recent statistics have also revealed a reduction in invasive cervical cancer incidence as a result of national vaccination programs. Paradoxically, cervical cancer incidence has increased in Japan, particularly amongst women of reproductive age. This study aimed to examine the trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality for young and middle adult women in Japan, by analyzing trends in 10-year interval age-groups. Cervical cancer incidence for young and middle adult women (ages 20-59 years) was obtained from high-quality population-based cancer registries in three prefectures from 1985 to 2015. National cancer mortality data were obtained from published vital statistics from 1985 to 2019. Trends in crude and age-standardized rates (ASR) were analyzed using Joinpoint regression. The cervical cancer incidence trend in 20-59-year-old women combined significantly increased over the observation period. Both crude and ASR increased from 1985 to 2015 with an annual percent change (APC) of +1.6% (95% confidence interval, 1.1, 2.1) and +1.7% (1.2, 2.3), respectively. Similar increases were seen in ages 20-29, 30-39, and 40-49 years with higher APCs especially in 20s and 30s. Both crude and ASR mortality significantly increased after the early 1990s in ages 20-59 years combined. Based on the recognition that current cervical cancer control strategies in Japan have not been effective in reducing the cervical cancer burden in young and middle adults, promotion of screening and vaccination should be urgently strengthened.
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Project description:BackgroundColorectal cancer incidence in the UK and other high-income countries has been increasing rapidly among young adults. This is the first analysis of colorectal cancer incidence trends by sub-site and socioeconomic deprivation in young adults in a European country.MethodsWe examined age-specific national trends in colorectal cancer incidence among all adults (20-99 years) diagnosed during 1971-2014, using Joinpoint regression to analyse data from the population-based cancer registry for England. We fitted a generalised linear model to the incidence rates, with a maximum of two knots. We present the annual percentage change in incidence rates in up to three successive calendar periods, by sex, age, deprivation and anatomical sub-site.ResultsAnnual incidence rates among the youngest adults (20-39 years) fell slightly between 1971 and the early 1990s, but increased rapidly from then onwards. Incidence Rates (IR) among adults 20-29 years rose from 0.8 per 100,000 in 1993 to 2.8 per 100,000 in 2014, an average annual increase of 8%. An annual increase of 8.1% was observed for adults aged 30-39 years during 2005-2014. Among the two youngest age groups (20-39 years), the average annual increase for the right colon was 5.2% between 1991 and 2010, rising to 19.4% per year between 2010 (IR = 1.2) and 2014 (IR = 2.5). The large increase in incidence rates for cancers of the right colon since 2010 were more marked among the most affluent young adults. Smaller but substantial increases were observed for cancers of the left colon and rectum. Incidence rates in those aged 50 years and older remained stable or decreased over the same periods.ConclusionsDespite the overall stabilising trend of colorectal cancer incidence in England, incidence rates have increased rapidly among young adults (aged 20-39 years). Changes in the prevalence of obesity and other risk factors may have affected the young population but more research is needed on the cause of the observed birth cohort effect. Extension of mass screening may not be justifiable due to the low number of newly diagnosed cases but clinicians should be alert to this trend.
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Project description:PurposeThis study investigated the incidence and relative survival rates (RSRs) for cancers among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) aged 15-39 years between 1993 and 2016 in Korea.Materials and methodsData from the Korea Central Cancer Registry were used to calculate percent distributions, age-specific incidence rates, age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per million, annual percent changes (APCs), average APCs, and RSRs for cancers diagnosed in AYAs.ResultsASR of all cancers among AYAs was 654.5 per million. The largest diagnosed group of cancers was carcinomas (almost 80%). Crude incidence increased with age, from 170.4 per million for those aged 15-19 years to 1,639.8 per million for those aged 35-39 years. ASR increased from 414.8 per million to 820.4 per million, with an APC of 9.0%. The incidence of thyroid carcinoma showed the most rapid increment (APC, 14.0%), followed by non-Hodgkin lymphoma (APC, 13.4%). The 5-year RSR among AYAs significantly improved from 62.1% to 90.8%. Survival improvement in AYAs was higher than that in children but lower than that in older adults (APC, 2.1% vs. 1.9% vs. 3.1%). The most marked survival improvement was found for leukemia and lymphoma. Astrocytoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, and carcinoma of the trachea, bronchus, and lung had a 5-year RSR of < 50%.ConclusionThere was an improvement in cancer survivals in AYAs, comparable to that achieved in children. However, survivals in several cancer types do not appear to be improving. Further research focusing on the epidemiology and therapeutic strategies for cancers in AYAs is needed.
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Project description:Lung cancer is the commonly diagnosed cancer and one of the most important avoidable causes of death around the world. We conducted the study to investigate the pattern of lung cancer incidence worldwide. Joinpoint analysis was used to extend international lung cancer incidence rates by the latest data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents over the 35-year period 1973-2007 from 24 populations from Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) of lung cancer were from 33.3 to 66.8 per 100,000 among males and 10.5 to 37.4 per 100,000 among females in most of Americas, Europe, and Oceania populations during the period 2003-2007. In Asia, ASRs in China (Hong Kong) were the highest, up to 53.3 per 100,000 in males and 21.9 per 100,000 in females during the period 2003-2007. The international trends between 1973 and 2007 showed that ASRs of lung cancer among males were declining in 13 of 18 selected Americas, Oceania, and Europe populations, with AAPC from -0.7% to -2.9%, whereas the rates among females in 18 selected populations were increasing, with AAPC from 1.3% to 5.0%. The increasing and decreasing trends of ASRs of lung cancer in Asia have a geographic variation but no gender differences. Although the decreasing trends in ASRs of lung cancer for males were observed, the ASRs were higher than females. The declining trends in males were mainly attributed to tobacco control, whereas the increasing trends in females should be given more concern and need to be further studied in etiology factors.
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