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Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal.

ABSTRACT: We provide reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from burning fuel fossil and cement production in Portugal based on an ARFIMA model approach and using annual data from 1950 to 2017. Our reference projections suggest a pattern of decarbonization that will cause the reduction of 3.3 Mt until 2030 and 5.1 Mt between 2030 and 2050. This scenario allows us to assess effort required by the new IPCC goals to ensure carbon neutrality by 2050. For this objective to be achieved it is necessary for emissions to be reduced by 39.9 Mt by 2050. Our results suggest that of these, only 8.4 Mt will result from the inertia of the national emissions system. The remaining reduction on emissions of 31.5 Mt of CO2 will require additional policy efforts. Accordingly, our results suggest that about 65.5% of the reductions necessary to achieve IPCC goals require deliberate policy efforts. Finally, the presence in the data of long memory with mean reversion suggests that policies must be persistent to ensure that these reductions in emissions are also permanent.

SUBMITTER: Belbute JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7295499 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Reference forecasts for CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal.

Belbute José M JM Pereira Alfredo M AM

Energy policy 20200615

We provide reference forecasts for CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from burning fuel fossil and cement production in Portugal based on an ARFIMA model approach and using annual data from 1950 to 2017. Our reference projections suggest a pattern of decarbonization that will cause the reduction of 3.3 Mt until 2030 and 5.1 Mt between 2030 and 2050. This scenario allows us to assess effort required by the new IPCC goals to ensure carbon neutrality by 2050. For this objective to be achieved it is necessary ...[more]

PMID: 32565609

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Project description:BackgroundCities contribute more than 70% of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and are leading the effort to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through sustainable planning and development. However, urban greenhouse gas mitigation often relies on self-reported emissions estimates that may be incomplete and unverifiable via atmospheric monitoring of GHGs. We present the Hestia Scope 1 fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions for the city of Baltimore, Maryland-a gridded annual and hourly emissions data product for 2010 through 2015 (Hestia-Baltimore v1.6). We also compare the Hestia-Baltimore emissions to overlapping Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions in Baltimore's self-reported inventory for 2014.ResultsThe Hestia-Baltimore emissions in 2014 totaled 1487.3 kt C (95% confidence interval of 1158.9-1944.9 kt C), with the largest emissions coming from onroad (34.2% of total city emissions), commercial (19.9%), residential (19.0%), and industrial (11.8%) sectors. Scope 1 electricity production and marine shipping were each generally less than 10% of the city's total emissions. Baltimore's self-reported Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions included onroad, natural gas consumption in buildings, and some electricity generating facilities within city limits. The self-reported Scope 1 FFCO2 total of 1182.6 kt C was similar to the sum of matching emission sectors and fuels in Hestia-Baltimore v1.6. However, 20.5% of Hestia-Baltimore's emissions were in sectors and fuels that were not included in the self-reported inventory. Petroleum use in buildings were omitted and all Scope 1 emissions from industrial point sources, marine shipping, nonroad vehicles, rail, and aircraft were categorically excluded.ConclusionsThe omission of petroleum combustion in buildings and categorical exclusions of several sectors resulted in an underestimate of total Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions in Baltimore's self-reported inventory. Accurate Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions, along with Scope 2 and 3 emissions, are needed to inform effective urban policymaking for system-wide GHG mitigation. We emphasize the need for comprehensive Scope 1 emissions estimates for emissions verification and measuring progress towards Scope 1 GHG mitigation goals using atmospheric monitoring.

Dataset Information

Reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal.

Publications

Reference forecasts for CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in Portugal.

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