Dataset Information

Estimating US fossil fuel CO₂ emissions from measurements of ¹⁴C in atmospheric CO₂.

ABSTRACT: We report national scale estimates of CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in the United States based directly on atmospheric observations, using a dual-tracer inverse modeling framework and CO₂ and [Formula: see text] measurements obtained primarily from the North American portion of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. The derived US national total for 2010 is 1,653 ± 30 TgC yr^-1 with an uncertainty ([Formula: see text]) that takes into account random errors associated with atmospheric transport, atmospheric measurements, and specified prior CO₂ and ¹⁴C fluxes. The atmosphere-derived estimate is significantly larger ([Formula: see text]) than US national emissions for 2010 from three global inventories widely used for CO₂ accounting, even after adjustments for emissions that might be sensed by the atmospheric network, but which are not included in inventory totals. It is also larger ([Formula: see text]) than a similarly adjusted total from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), but overlaps EPA's reported upper 95% confidence limit. In contrast, the atmosphere-derived estimate is within [Formula: see text] of the adjusted 2010 annual total and nine of 12 adjusted monthly totals aggregated from the latest version of the high-resolution, US-specific "Vulcan" emission data product. Derived emissions appear to be robust to a range of assumed prior emissions and other parameters of the inversion framework. While we cannot rule out a possible bias from assumed prior Net Ecosystem Exchange over North America, we show that this can be overcome with additional [Formula: see text] measurements. These results indicate the strong potential for quantification of US emissions and their multiyear trends from atmospheric observations.

SUBMITTER: Basu S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7306993 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating US fossil fuel CO2 emissions from measurements of 14C in atmospheric CO2.

Basu Sourish S Lehman Scott J SJ Miller John B JB Andrews Arlyn E AE Sweeney Colm C Gurney Kevin R KR Xu Xiaomei X Southon John J Tans Pieter P PP

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20200601 24

We report national scale estimates of CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in the United States based directly on atmospheric observations, using a dual-tracer inverse modeling framework and CO2 and [Formula: see text] measurements obtained primarily from the North American portion of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. The derived US national total for 2010 is 1,653 ± 30 TgC yr-1</su ...[more]

PMID: 32482875

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Project description:BackgroundCities contribute more than 70% of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and are leading the effort to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through sustainable planning and development. However, urban greenhouse gas mitigation often relies on self-reported emissions estimates that may be incomplete and unverifiable via atmospheric monitoring of GHGs. We present the Hestia Scope 1 fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions for the city of Baltimore, Maryland-a gridded annual and hourly emissions data product for 2010 through 2015 (Hestia-Baltimore v1.6). We also compare the Hestia-Baltimore emissions to overlapping Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions in Baltimore's self-reported inventory for 2014.ResultsThe Hestia-Baltimore emissions in 2014 totaled 1487.3 kt C (95% confidence interval of 1158.9-1944.9 kt C), with the largest emissions coming from onroad (34.2% of total city emissions), commercial (19.9%), residential (19.0%), and industrial (11.8%) sectors. Scope 1 electricity production and marine shipping were each generally less than 10% of the city's total emissions. Baltimore's self-reported Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions included onroad, natural gas consumption in buildings, and some electricity generating facilities within city limits. The self-reported Scope 1 FFCO2 total of 1182.6 kt C was similar to the sum of matching emission sectors and fuels in Hestia-Baltimore v1.6. However, 20.5% of Hestia-Baltimore's emissions were in sectors and fuels that were not included in the self-reported inventory. Petroleum use in buildings were omitted and all Scope 1 emissions from industrial point sources, marine shipping, nonroad vehicles, rail, and aircraft were categorically excluded.ConclusionsThe omission of petroleum combustion in buildings and categorical exclusions of several sectors resulted in an underestimate of total Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions in Baltimore's self-reported inventory. Accurate Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions, along with Scope 2 and 3 emissions, are needed to inform effective urban policymaking for system-wide GHG mitigation. We emphasize the need for comprehensive Scope 1 emissions estimates for emissions verification and measuring progress towards Scope 1 GHG mitigation goals using atmospheric monitoring.

Project description:BackgroundSatellite imagery will offer unparalleled global spatial coverage at high-resolution for long term cost-effective monitoring of CO2 concentration plumes generated by emission hotspots. CO2 emissions can then be estimated from the magnitude of these plumes. In this paper, we assimilate pseudo-observations in a global atmospheric inversion system to assess the performance of a constellation of one to four sun-synchronous low-Earth orbit (LEO) imagers to monitor anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The constellation of imagers follows the specifications from the European Spatial Agency (ESA) for the Copernicus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Monitoring (CO2M) concept for a future operational mission dedicated to the monitoring of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This study assesses the uncertainties in the inversion estimates of emissions ("posterior uncertainties").ResultsThe posterior uncertainties of emissions for individual cities and power plants are estimated for the 3 h before satellite overpasses, and extrapolated at annual scale assuming temporal auto-correlations in the uncertainties in the emission products that are used as a prior knowledge on the emissions by the Bayesian framework of the inversion. The results indicate that (i) the number of satellites has a proportional impact on the number of 3 h time windows for which emissions are constrained to better than 20%, but it has a small impact on the posterior uncertainties in annual emissions; (ii) having one satellite with wide swath would provide full images of the XCO2 plumes, and is more beneficial than having two satellites with half the width of reference swath; and (iii) an increase in the precision of XCO2 retrievals from 0.7 ppm to 0.35 ppm has a marginal impact on the emission monitoring performance.ConclusionsFor all constellation configurations, only the cities and power plants with an annual emission higher than 0.5 MtC per year can have at least one 8:30-11:30 time window during one year when the emissions can be constrained to better than 20%. The potential of satellite imagers to constrain annual emissions not only depend on the design of the imagers, but also strongly depend on the temporal error structure in the prior uncertainties, which is needed to be objectively assessed in the bottom-up emission maps.

Dataset Information

Estimating US fossil fuel CO₂ emissions from measurements of ¹⁴C in atmospheric CO₂.

Publications

Estimating US fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from measurements of <sup>14</sup>C in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>.

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