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Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in anti-programmed death-1 and anti-programmed death ligand 1 trials of advanced melanoma.

ABSTRACT: Background:We assessed the surrogacy of objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR) and progression-free survival (PFS) for overall survival (OS) in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma through a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Methods:PubMed and EMBASE were searched for phase II/III RCTs till June 2019 investigating anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents. Treatment effect (hazard ratio or odds ratio) on potential surrogates (ORR/DCR/PFS) and OS were collected. At trial level, we assessed the correlation between treatment effect on potential surrogates and OS, weighted by sample size, fixed and random effect models, and calculated the surrogate threshold effect (STE). Sensitivity analyses and leave-one-out cross-validation approach were performed to evaluate the robustness of our findings. Results:We included 8 RCTs (4110 patients; 11 comparisons). We did not identify strong correlations between ORR [coefficient of determination (R 2): 0.09-0.25], DCR (0.41-0.57) and OS. However, we noted a strong correlation between PFS and OS, with R 2 of 0.82 in sample size, 0.75 in fixed effect and 0.72 in random effect model weighting, the robustness of which was further verified by leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Sensitivity analyses with restriction to trials with less than 50% crossover, phase III trials, large trials and first-line trials strengthened the correlation (0.78-0.94). The STE for PFS was 0.78. Conclusions:PFS may be the appropriate surrogate for OS in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma. A future anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trial would need less than 0.78 for PFS of the upper limit of confidence interval to predict an OS benefit.

SUBMITTER: Nie RC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7301660 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in anti-programmed death-1 and anti-programmed death ligand 1 trials of advanced melanoma.

Nie Run-Cong RC Yuan Shu-Qiang SQ Wang Yun Y Zou Xue-Bin XB Chen Shi S Li Shu-Man SM Duan Jin-Ling JL Zhou Jie J Chen Guo-Ming GM Luo Tian-Qi TQ Zhou Zhi-Wei ZW Li Yuan-Fang YF

Therapeutic advances in medical oncology 20200617

<h4>Background</h4>We assessed the surrogacy of objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR) and progression-free survival (PFS) for overall survival (OS) in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma through a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs).<h4>Methods</h4>PubMed and EMBASE were searched for phase II/III RCTs till June 2019 investigating anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents. Treatment effect (hazard ratio or odds ratio) on potential surrogates (ORR/DCR/PFS) and OS were c ...[more]

PMID: 32595775

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Project description:BackgroundRecent phase 3 trials have shown an overall survival benefit in metastatic melanoma. We aimed to assess whether progression-free survival (PFS) could be regarded as a reliable surrogate for overall survival through a meta-analysis of randomised trials.MethodsWe systematically reviewed randomised trials comparing treatment regimens in metastatic melanoma that included dacarbazine as the control arm, and which reported both PFS and overall survival with a standard hazard ratio (HR). We correlated HRs for overall survival and PFS, weighted by sample size or by precision of the HR estimate, assuming fixed and random effects. We did sensitivity analyses according to presence of crossover, trial size, and dacarbazine dose.FindingsAfter screening 1649 reports and meeting abstracts published before Sept 8, 2013, we identified 12 eligible randomised trials that enrolled 4416 patients with metastatic melanoma. Irrespective of weighting strategy, we noted a strong correlation between the treatment effects for PFS and overall survival, which seemed independent of treatment type. Pearson correlation coefficients were 0·71 (95% CI 0·29-0·90) with a random-effects assumption, 0·85 (0·59-0·95) with a fixed-effects assumption, and 0·89 (0·68-0·97) with sample-size weighting. For nine trials without crossover, the correlation coefficient was 0·96 (0·81-0·99), which decreased to 0·93 (0·74-0·98) when two additional trials with less than 50% crossover were included. Inclusion of mature follow-up data after at least 50% crossover (in vemurafenib and dabrafenib phase 3 trials) weakened the PFS to overall survival correlation (0·55, 0·03-0·84). Inclusion of trials with no or little crossover with the random-effects assumption yielded a conservative statement of the PFS to overall survival correlation of 0·85 (0·51-0·96).InterpretationPFS can be regarded as a robust surrogate for overall survival in dacarbazine-controlled randomised trials of metastatic melanoma; we postulate that this association will hold as treatment standards evolve and are adopted as the control arm in future trials.FundingNone.

Project description:PurposeNivolumab and relatlimab activity in advanced melanoma with prior progression on anti-programmed death-1/programmed death ligand 1 (PD-(L)1)-containing regimens is under investigation. RELATIVITY-047 demonstrated significantly improved progression-free survival (PFS) for nivolumab and relatlimab over nivolumab in previously untreated advanced melanoma.MethodsThe phase I/IIa, open-label RELATIVITY-020 trial part D assessed efficacy and safety of nivolumab and relatlimab in advanced melanoma with progression during, or within 3 months of, 1 (D1) or ≥ 1 (D2) anti-PD-(L)1-containing regimens. Safety was a primary end point. Objective response rate (coprimary end point) and PFS by blinded independent central review (BICR) were assessed.ResultsFive hundred eighteen patients (D1 = 354; D2 = 164) received nivolumab and relatlimab. Among evaluable patients, the objective response rate by BICR was 12.0% (95% CI, 8.8 to 15.8) in D1 (n = 351) and 9.2% (95% CI, 5.2 to 14.7) in D2 (n = 163). Responses appeared to be enriched among patients with tumors expressing programmed death ligand 1 or lymphocyte activation gene 3; however, responses were observed regardless of programmed death ligand 1 and lymphocyte activation gene 3 expression (1%). The median duration of response was not reached (95% CI, 12.9 to not reached) in D1 and 12.8 months (95% CI, 6.9 to 12.9) in D2. The median PFS by BICR was 2.1 months (95% CI, 1.9 to 3.5) in D1 and 3.2 months (95% CI, 1.9 to 3.6) in D2; the 6-month PFS rate was 29.1% (95% CI, 24.2 to 34.1) and 27.7% (95% CI, 20.5 to 35.4), respectively. The grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse event incidence was 15.0% in D1 and 12.8% in D2. One case of grade 3 myocarditis and no treatment-related deaths occurred across part D.ConclusionNivolumab and relatlimab had a manageable safety profile and demonstrated durable clinical activity in a proportion of patients with heavily pretreated advanced melanoma with prior progression on anti-PD-(L)1-containing regimens.[Media: see text].

Project description:BackgroundOverall survival (OS) is the gold standard for the demonstration of a clinical benefit in cancer trials. Replacement of OS by a surrogate endpoint allows to reduce trial duration. To date, few surrogate endpoints have been validated in digestive oncology. The aim of this study was to draw up an ordered list of potential surrogate endpoints for OS in digestive cancer trials, by way of a survey among clinicians and methodologists. Secondary objective was to obtain their opinion on surrogacy and quality of life (QoL).MethodsIn 2007 and 2008, self administered sequential questionnaires were sent to a panel of French clinicians and methodologists involved in the conduct of cancer clinical trials. In the first questionnaire, panellists were asked to choose the most important characteristics defining a surrogate among six proposals, to give advantages and drawbacks of the surrogates, and to answer questions about their validation and use. Then they had to suggest potential surrogate endpoints for OS in each of the following tumour sites: oesophagus, stomach, liver, pancreas, biliary tract, lymphoma, colon, rectum, and anus. They finally gave their opinion on QoL as surrogate endpoint. In the second questionnaire, they had to classify the previously proposed candidate surrogates from the most (position #1) to the least relevant in their opinion.Frequency at which the endpoints were chosen as first, second or third most relevant surrogates was calculated and served as final ranking.ResultsResponse rate was 30% (24/80) in the first round and 20% (16/80) in the second one. Participants highlighted key points concerning surrogacy. In particular, they reminded that a surrogate endpoint is expected to predict clinical benefit in a well-defined therapeutic situation. Half of them thought it was not relevant to study QoL as surrogate for OS.DFS, in the neoadjuvant settings or early stages, and PFS, in the non operable or metastatic settings, were ranked first, with a frequency of more than 69% in 20 out of 22 settings. PFS was proposed in association with QoL in metastatic primary liver and stomach cancers (both 81%). This composite endpoint was ranked second in metastatic oesophageal (69%), colorectal (56%) and anal (56%) cancers, whereas QoL alone was also suggested in most metastatic situations.Other endpoints frequently suggested were R0 resection in the neoadjuvant settings (oesophagus (69%), stomach (56%), pancreas (75%) and biliary tract (63%)) and response. An unexpected endpoint was metastatic PFS in non operable oesophageal (31%) and pancreatic (44%) cancers. Quality and results of surgical procedures like sphincter preservation were also cited as eligible surrogate endpoints in rectal (19%) and anal (50% in case of localized disease) cancers. Except for alpha-FP kinetic in hepatocellular carcinoma (13%) and CA19-9 decline (6%) in pancreas, few endpoints based on biological or tumour markers were proposed.ConclusionThe overall results should help prioritise the endpoints to be statistically evaluated as surrogate for OS, so that trialists and clinicians can rely on endpoints that ensure relevant clinical benefit to the patient.

Dataset Information

Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in anti-programmed death-1 and anti-programmed death ligand 1 trials of advanced melanoma.

Publications

Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in anti-programmed death-1 and anti-programmed death ligand 1 trials of advanced melanoma.

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