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Containment of future waves of COVID-19: simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation.

ABSTRACT: We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infections sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Depending on the mitigation policies in place, a daily capacity between 0.7 to 3.6 tests per thousand was required to contain the disease. However, if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of infections kept growing exponentially, irrespective of any testing capacity. Under these conditions, the population's geographical distribution and travel behaviour could inform sampling policies to aid a successful containment.

SUBMITTER: Fiore VG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7302294 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Containment of future waves of COVID-19: simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation.

Fiore Vincenzo G VG DeFelice Nicholas N Glicksberg Benjamin S BS Perl Ofer O Shuster Anastasia A Kulkarni Kaustubh K O'Brien Madeline M Pisauro M Andrea MA Chung Dongil D Gu Xiaosi X

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20200607

We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infections sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Depending on the mitigation policies in place, a daily capacity between 0.7 to 3.6 tests per thousand was required to contain the disease. However, if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of infections kept growing exponentially, ir ...[more]

PMID: 32577688

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Containment of COVID-19: Simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation.

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