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Optimizing classical risk scores to predict complications in head and neck surgery: a new approach.


ABSTRACT: PURPOSE:To validate tools to identify patients at risk for perioperative complications to implement prehabilitation programmes in head and neck surgery (H&N). METHODS:Retrospective cohort including 128 patients submitted to H&N, with postoperative Intermediate Care Unit admittance. The accuracy of the risk calculators ASA, P-POSSUM, ACS-NSQIP and ARISCAT to predict postoperative complications and mortality was assessed. A multivariable analysis was subsequently performed to create a new risk prediction model for serious postoperative complications in our institution. RESULTS:Our 30-day morbidity and mortality were 45.3% and 0.8%, respectively. The ACS-NSQIP failed to predict complications and had an acceptable discrimination ability for predicting death. The discrimination ability of ARISCAT for predicting respiratory complications was acceptable. ASA and P-POSSUM were poor predictors for mortality and morbidity. Our new prediction model included ACS-NSQIP and ARISCAT (area under the curve 0.750, 95% confidence intervals: 0.63-0.87). CONCLUSION:Despite the insufficient value of these risk calculators when analysed individually, we designed a risk tool combining them which better predicts the risk of serious complications.

SUBMITTER: Sousa Menezes A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7302498 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimizing classical risk scores to predict complications in head and neck surgery: a new approach.

Sousa Menezes Ana A   Fernandes Antero A   Rocha Rodrigues Jéssica J   Salomé Carla C   Machado Firmino F   Antunes Luís L   Castro Silva Joaquim J   Monteiro Eurico E   Lara Santos Lúcio L  

European archives of oto-rhino-laryngology : official journal of the European Federation of Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Societies (EUFOS) : affiliated with the German Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology - Head and Neck Surgery 20200618 1


<h4>Purpose</h4>To validate tools to identify patients at risk for perioperative complications to implement prehabilitation programmes in head and neck surgery (H&N).<h4>Methods</h4>Retrospective cohort including 128 patients submitted to H&N, with postoperative Intermediate Care Unit admittance. The accuracy of the risk calculators ASA, P-POSSUM, ACS-NSQIP and ARISCAT to predict postoperative complications and mortality was assessed. A multivariable analysis was subsequently performed to create  ...[more]

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