Dataset Information

Short-term effects of meteorological factors, air pollution, and sunspot on childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease in Tianjin, China: a new time series regression, 2014-2018.

ABSTRACT: This study is aimed at defining the relationship between a set of environmental factors and childhood HFMD and then at estimating the related effect. The 16 environmental factors included meteorological, air pollution, and sunspot. A traditional TSR modified by using susceptible-infectious-recovery models and distribution lag nonlinear model was applied to estimate the short-term effects of daily environmental factors on children HFMD occurrence in 2014-2018 with adjustment of potential confounding factors. A total of 70,027 children aged 0-15 years with HFMD were enrolled. No significant effect was observed for daily sunspot numbers and average visibility. We found positive effects of the ambient average temperature, with an approximately m-shaped curve of the overall cumulative relationship, peaking at 25.6 °C with a relative risk (RR) of 1.45 (95% confidence intervals 1.21-1.73). The largest RR value of hot effect was achieved on the current day and then decreased by 2 days (total group, male group, and scatter group) or 1 day (female group and nursery group), and the effect lasted about 6 to 8 days from the lag 4 or lag 6 day. A greater association of temperature with HFMD for the female group and the scattered group was observed. This study suggests that ambient average temperature might be a risk factor for children HFMD in Tianjin. Further studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

SUBMITTER: Ji XY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7311115 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Short-term effects of meteorological factors, air pollution, and sunspot on childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease in Tianjin, China: a new time series regression, 2014-2018.

Ji Xue-Yue XY Huang Li-Yuan LY Song Jia J Fei Chun-Nan CN Liu Jun J Liu He H

Environmental science and pollution research international 20200623 29

This study is aimed at defining the relationship between a set of environmental factors and childhood HFMD and then at estimating the related effect. The 16 environmental factors included meteorological, air pollution, and sunspot. A traditional TSR modified by using susceptible-infectious-recovery models and distribution lag nonlinear model was applied to estimate the short-term effects of daily environmental factors on children HFMD occurrence in 2014-2018 with adjustment of potential confound ...[more]

PMID: 32577970

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Project description:BackgroundHand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is caused by a group of enteroviruses (EVs) and has a high incidence in children; some subtypes had high mortalities in children. The subtypes of HFMD had a different incidence across seasons. Thereby, we suspect that the infection of HFMD is varied by meteorological factors. However, studies examining serotype-specific associations between meteorological factors and HFMD incidence were rare.MethodsWe obtained all HFMD cases that occurred from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2018 in Zhejiang province from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Daily meteorological data for Zhejiang province were provided by the China Methodological Data Sharing Service System and linked to HFMD cases based on residential addresses and dates of onset. The associations between meteorological factors and HFMDs were examined using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) for each serotype.ResultsOverall, the incidences of all HFMD cases were increasing in study years, while the number of severe and fatality cases were decreasing. The dominant serotypes varied by study year. The association between temperature and incidence of both CVA16 and EV71 serotypes showed an inverted U shape. The risk ratio for CVA16 was increasing when temperature is 11-25°C, reaching the maximum RR at 18°C and humidity above 77% can promote the occurrence with CVA16, and temperature between 11 and 32°C with the maximum RR at 21°C and relative humidity above 77% are risk conditions of the occurrence of HFMD associated with EV71. For other enteroviruses causing HFMD, temperature above 11°C and humidity above 76% have a risk effect. CVA16, EV71, and all enteroviruses of HFMD have a maximum effect on lag day 0, and temperature is 35, 34, and 33°C respectively, while the enteroviruses of HFMD other than EV71 and CVA16 has a maximum effect when the temperature is 33°C and the lag time is 7 days.ConclusionThis study shows that meteorological factors have an effect on the occurrence of different HFMD serotypes. Local control strategies for public health should be taken in time to prevent and reduce the risk of HFMD while the weather is getting warmer and wetter.

Dataset Information

Short-term effects of meteorological factors, air pollution, and sunspot on childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease in Tianjin, China: a new time series regression, 2014-2018.

Publications

Short-term effects of meteorological factors, air pollution, and sunspot on childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease in Tianjin, China: a new time series regression, 2014-2018.

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