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A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology.

ABSTRACT: The statistical correlation between meteorological parameters and the spread of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) was investigated in five provinces of Italy selected according to the number of infected individuals and the different trends of infection in the early stages of the epidemic: Bergamo and Brescia showed some of the highest trends of infections while nearby Cremona and Mantova, showed lower trends. Pesaro-Urbino province was included for further investigation as it was comparably affected by the epidemic despite being the area far from the Po valley. Moving means of the variables were considered to take into account the variability of incubation periods and uncertainties in the epidemiological data. The same analyzes were performed normalizing the number of new daily cases based on the number of checks performed. For each province, the moving mean of adjusted and unadjusted new daily cases were independently plotted versus each meteorological parameter, and linear regressions were determined in the period from 29th of February 2020 to 29th of March 2020. Strong positive correlations were observed between new cases and temperatures within three provinces representing 86.5% of the contagions. Strong negative correlations were observed between the moving means of new cases and relative humidity values for four provinces and more than 90% of the contagions.

SUBMITTER: Passerini G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7312788 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology.

Passerini Giorgio G Mancinelli Enrico E Morichetti Mauro M Virgili Simone S Rizza Umberto U

International journal of environmental research and public health 20200605 11

The statistical correlation between meteorological parameters and the spread of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) was investigated in five provinces of Italy selected according to the number of infected individuals and the different trends of infection in the early stages of the epidemic: Bergamo and Brescia showed some of the highest trends of infections while nearby Cremona and Mantova, showed lower trends. Pesaro-Urbino province was included for further investigation as it was comparably af ...[more]

PMID: 32517160

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Project description:BackgroundThe spread of SARS-CoV-2, originating in Wuhan, China, was classified as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. The governments of affected countries have implemented various measures to limit the spread of the virus. The starting point of this paper is the different government approaches, in terms of promulgating new legislative regulations to limit the virus diffusion and to contain negative effects on the populations.ObjectiveThis paper aims to study how the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is linked to government policies and to analyze how different policies have produced different results on public health.MethodsConsidering the official data provided by 4 countries (Italy, Germany, Sweden, and Brazil) and from the measures implemented by each government, we built an agent-based model to study the effects that these measures will have over time on different variables such as the total number of COVID-19 cases, intensive care unit (ICU) bed occupancy rates, and recovery and case-fatality rates. The model we implemented provides the possibility of modifying some starting variables, and it was thus possible to study the effects that some policies (eg, keeping the national borders closed or increasing the ICU beds) would have had on the spread of the infection.ResultsThe 4 considered countries have adopted different containment measures for COVID-19, and the forecasts provided by the model for the considered variables have given different results. Italy and Germany seem to be able to limit the spread of the infection and any eventual second wave, while Sweden and Brazil do not seem to have the situation under control. This situation is also reflected in the forecasts of pressure on the National Health Services, which see Sweden and Brazil with a high occupancy rate of ICU beds in the coming months, with a consequent high number of deaths.ConclusionsIn line with what we expected, the obtained results showed that the countries that have taken restrictive measures in terms of limiting the population mobility have managed more successfully than others to contain the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, the model demonstrated that herd immunity cannot be reached even in countries that have relied on a strategy without strict containment measures.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough an increasing body of data reports the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in air, this does not correlate to the presence of infectious viruses, thus not evaluating the risk for airborne COVID-19. Hence there is a marked knowledge gap that requires urgent attention. Therefore, in this systematic review, viability/stability of airborne SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV viruses is discussed.MethodsA systematic literature review was performed on PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of Science and Scopus to assess the stability and viability of SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 on air samples.Results and discussionThe initial search identified 27 articles. Following screening of titles and abstracts and removing duplicates, 11 articles were considered relevant. Temperatures ranging from 20 °C to 25 °C and relative humidity ranging from 40% to 50% were reported to have a protective effect on viral viability for airborne SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. As no data is yet available on the conditions influencing viability for airborne SARS-CoV-2, and given the genetic similarity to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, one could extrapolate that the same conditions would apply. Nonetheless, the effect of these conditions seems to be residual considering the increasing number of cases in the south of USA, Brazil and India, where high temperatures and humidities have been observed.ConclusionHigher temperatures and high relative humidity can have a modest effect on SARS-CoV-2 viability in the environment, as reported in previous studies to this date. However, these studies are experimental, and do not support the fact that the virus has efficiently spread in the tropical regions of the globe, with other transmission routes such as the contact and droplet ones probably being responsible for the majority of cases reported in these regions, along with other factors such as human mobility patterns and contact rates. Further studies are needed to investigate the extent of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 as this would have important implications for public health and infection-control policies.

Project description:This study aims to explore the state-wise assessment of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic spread in Malaysia with focus on influence of meteorological parameters and air quality. In this study, state-wise COVID-19 data, meteorological parameters and air quality index (AQI) were collected from March 13 to April 30, 2020, which encompass three movement control order (MCO) periods in the country. Overall, total infected cases were observed to be higher in MCO phase 1 and 2 and significantly reduced in MCO phase 3. Due to the variation in the spatial interval of population density and individual immunity, the relationship of these parameters to pandemic spread could not be achieved. The study infers that temperature (T) between 23 and 25 °C and relative humidity (RH) (70-80%) triggered the pandemic spread by increase in the infected cases in northern and central Peninsular Malaysia. Selangor, WP Kuala Lumpur and WP Putrajaya show significantly high infected cases and a definite trend was not observed with respect to a particular meteorological factor. It is identified that high precipitation (PPT), RH and good air quality have reduced the spread in East Malaysia. A negative correlation of T and AQI and positive correlation of RH with total infected cases were found during MCO phase 3. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that T, RH, PPT, dew point (DP) and AQI are the main controlling factors for the spread across the country apart from social distancing. Vulnerability zones were identified based on the spatial analysis of T, RH, PPT and AQI with reference to total infected cases. Based on time series analysis, it was determined that higher RH and T in Peninsular Malaysia and high amount of PPT, RH and good air quality in East Malaysia have controlled the spreading during MCO phase 3. The predominance of D614 mutant was observed prior to March and decreases at the end of March, coinciding with the fluctuation of meteorological factors and air quality. The outcome of this study gives a general awareness to the public on COVID-19 and the influence of meteorological factors. It will also help the policymakers to enhance the management plans against the pandemic spreading apart from social distancing in the next wave of COVID-19.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-021-01719-z.

Project description:BACKGROUND:During the current worldwide pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) was first diagnosed in Iceland at the end of February. However, data are limited on how SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, enters and spreads in a population. METHODS:We targeted testing to persons living in Iceland who were at high risk for infection (mainly those who were symptomatic, had recently traveled to high-risk countries, or had contact with infected persons). We also carried out population screening using two strategies: issuing an open invitation to 10,797 persons and sending random invitations to 2283 persons. We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 from 643 samples. RESULTS:As of April 4, a total of 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection with SARS-CoV-2. Of those tested in the general population, 87 (0.8%) in the open-invitation screening and 13 (0.6%) in the random-population screening tested positive for the virus. In total, 6% of the population was screened. Most persons in the targeted-testing group who received positive tests early in the study had recently traveled internationally, in contrast to those who tested positive later in the study. Children under 10 years of age were less likely to receive a positive result than were persons 10 years of age or older, with percentages of 6.7% and 13.7%, respectively, for targeted testing; in the population screening, no child under 10 years of age had a positive result, as compared with 0.8% of those 10 years of age or older. Fewer females than males received positive results both in targeted testing (11.0% vs. 16.7%) and in population screening (0.6% vs. 0.9%). The haplotypes of the sequenced SARS-CoV-2 viruses were diverse and changed over time. The percentage of infected participants that was determined through population screening remained stable for the 20-day duration of screening. CONCLUSIONS:In a population-based study in Iceland, children under 10 years of age and females had a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection than adolescents or adults and males. The proportion of infected persons identified through population screening did not change substantially during the screening period, which was consistent with a beneficial effect of containment efforts. (Funded by deCODE Genetics-Amgen.).

Project description:IntroductionVenezuela and Colombia both adopted measures of containment early in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Venezuela's ongoing humanitarian crisis has decimated its health care system, and forced millions of Venezuelans to flee through its porous border with Colombia. The extensive shared border, and illegal cross-border transit through improvised trails between the two countries are major challenges for public health authorities. We report the first SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Venezuela, and present a snapshot of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemiologic landscape in the Colombian-Venezuelan border region.MethodsWe sequenced and assembled viral genomes from total RNA extracted from nasopharyngeal (NP) clinical specimens using a custom reference-based analysis pipeline. Three assemblies obtained were subjected to typing using the Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak LINeages 'Pangolin' tool. A total of 376 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes from South America were obtained from the GISAID database to perform comparative genomic analyses. Additionally, the Wuhan-1 strain was used as reference.ResultsWe found that two of the SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Venezuela belonged to the B1 lineage, and the third to the B.1.13 lineage. We observed a point mutation in the Spike protein gene (D614G substitution), previously reported to be associated with increased infectivity, in all three Venezuelan genomes. Additionally, three mutations (R203K/G204R substitution) were present in the nucleocapsid (N) gene of one Venezuelan genome.ConclusionsGenomic sequencing demonstrates similarity between SARS-CoV-2 lineages from Venezuela and viruses collected from patients in bordering areas in Colombia and from Brazil, consistent with cross-border transit despite administrative measures including lockdowns. The presence of mutations associated with increased infectivity in the 3 Venezuelan genomes we report and Colombian SARS-CoV-2 genomes from neighboring borders areas may pose additional challenges for control of SARS-CoV-2 spread in the complex epidemiological landscape in Latin American countries. Public health authorities should carefully follow the progress of the pandemic and its impact on displaced populations within the region.

Dataset Information

A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology.

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A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology.

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