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Accommodating individual travel history, global mobility, and unsampled diversity in phylogeography: a SARS-CoV-2 case study.

ABSTRACT: Spatiotemporal bias in genome sequence sampling can severely confound phylogeographic inference based on discrete trait ancestral reconstruction. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the availability of staggering numbers of genomes on a global scale, evolutionary reconstructions of SARS-CoV-2 are hindered by the slow accumulation of sequence divergence over its relatively short transmission history. When confronted with these issues, incorporating additional contextual data may critically inform phylodynamic reconstructions. Here, we present a new approach to integrate individual travel history data in Bayesian phylogeographic inference and apply it to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2, while also including global air transportation data. We demonstrate that including travel history data for each SARS-CoV-2 genome yields more realistic reconstructions of virus spread, particularly when travelers from undersampled locations are included to mitigate sampling bias. We further explore the impact of sampling bias by incorporating unsampled sequences from undersampled locations in the analyses. Our reconstructions reinforce specific transmission hypotheses suggested by the inclusion of travel history data, but also suggest alternative routes of virus migration that are plausible within the epidemiological context but are not apparent with current sampling efforts. Although further research is needed to fully examine the performance of our new data integration approaches and to further improve them, they represent multiple new avenues for directly addressing the colossal issue of sample bias in phylogeographic inference.

SUBMITTER: Lemey P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7315996 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The large-bodied, terrestrial primates in the tribe Papionini are among the most intensely studied animals in the world, yet for some members of this tribe we know comparatively little about their evolutionary history and phylogeography. Geladas (Theropithecus gelada Rüppell, 1835), endemic primates of the Ethiopian highlands, are largely unstudied both in genetic diversity and intrageneric phylogeny. Currently, a northern and central subspecies and one isolated southern population are recognized, of which the central is classified as Least Concern, the northern as Vulnerable, and the southern is not yet assessed. The distribution and taxonomy of the subspecies remain poorly defined. Here, we estimate the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity and phylogenetic relationships among gelada mtDNA lineages based on samples across the entire species range. We analysed 1.7 kb-long sequences of the mtDNA genome, spanning the cytochrome b gene and the hypervariable region I of the D-loop, derived from 162 faecal samples. We detected five major haplogroups or clades (south, central-1, central-2, north-1, north-2) which diverged between 0.67 and 0.43 million years ago, thus suggesting a rapid radiation, resulting in largely unresolved intrageneric phylogenetic relationships. Both, the northern and central demes contain two similarly valid haplogroups, each with little or no geographic segregation among respective haplogroups. Effective population sizes of the northern and central demes decreased during and after the last glacial maximum but remained stable for the southern deme, although on a very low level. The distribution of haplogroups within the geographic ranges of the putative gelada subspecies indicates that mtDNA sequence information does not allow reliable taxonomic inferences and thus is not sufficient for solving the taxonomic rank of the three demic populations, with the possible exception of the southern population. Nevertheless, due to the genetic differences all three populations deserve conservation efforts, in particular the smallest southern population.

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Accommodating individual travel history, global mobility, and unsampled diversity in phylogeography: a SARS-CoV-2 case study.

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