Unknown

Dataset Information

0

The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest.


ABSTRACT: American Southwest (ASW) megadroughts represent decadal-scale periods of dry conditions, the near-term risks of which arise from natural low-frequency hydroclimate variability and anthropogenic forcing. A large single-climate-model ensemble indicates anthropogenic forcing increases near-term ASW megadrought risk by a factor of 100, however, accurate risk assessment remains a challenge. At the global-scale we find that anthropogenic forcing may alter the variability driving megadroughts over 55% of land-areas, undermining accurate assessments of their risk. For the remaining areas, current ensembles are too small to characterize megadroughts' driving variability. For example, constraining uncertainty in near-term ASW megadrought risk to 5 percentage points with high confidence requires 287 simulations. Such ensemble sizes are beyond current computational and storage resources and these limitations suggest that constraining errors in near-term megadrought risk projections with high confidence-even in places where underlying variability is stationary-is not currently possible.

SUBMITTER: Coats S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7323784 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

altmetric image

Publications

The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest.

Coats Sloan S   Mankin Justin S JS  

Geophysical research letters 20160903 Iss 17


American Southwest (ASW) megadroughts represent decadal-scale periods of dry conditions, the near-term risks of which arise from natural low-frequency hydroclimate variability and anthropogenic forcing. A large single-climate-model ensemble indicates anthropogenic forcing increases near-term ASW megadrought risk by a factor of 100, however, accurate risk assessment remains a challenge. At the global-scale we find that anthropogenic forcing may alter the variability driving megadroughts over 55%  ...[more]

Similar Datasets

| S-EPMC5052010 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC6202712 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC4644081 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC5643054 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC9389175 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC6681765 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC9101326 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC5468141 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC4556639 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC2993351 | biostudies-other