Project description:Influenza virus infections are believed to spread mostly by close contact in the community. Social distancing measures are essential components of the public health response to influenza pandemics. The objective of these mitigation measures is to reduce transmission, thereby delaying the epidemic peak, reducing the size of the epidemic peak, and spreading cases over a longer time to relieve pressure on the healthcare system. We conducted systematic reviews of the evidence base for effectiveness of multiple mitigation measures: isolating ill persons, contact tracing, quarantining exposed persons, school closures, workplace measures/closures, and avoiding crowding. Evidence supporting the effectiveness of these measures was obtained largely from observational studies and simulation studies. Voluntary isolation at home might be a more feasible social distancing measure, and pandemic plans should consider how to facilitate this measure. More drastic social distancing measures might be reserved for severe pandemics.
Project description:In times of the coronavirus, complying with public health policies is essential to save lives. Understanding the factors that influence compliance with social distancing measures is therefore an urgent issue. The present research investigated the role of political and social trust for social distancing using a variety of methods. In Study 1 (N = 301), conducted with a sample from the United Kingdom in the midst of the virus outbreak (i.e., the first wave), neither political nor social trust had main associations with self-reported social distancing tendencies. However, both factors interacted such that social trust was associated with lower social distancing tendencies among participants with low levels of political trust. In Study 2, using an experimental longitudinal design and again conducted with a sample collected from the UK (N = 268) during the first wave of the pandemic, social distancing practices increased over time, independent of an experimental manipulation of political trust. Moreover, while the interaction between political and social trust from the first study could not be conceptually replicated, social trust was positively related to social distancing intentions. Moving from the individual to the country level and assessing actual behavior at both the first and second wave of the pandemic, in Study 3 (N = 65 countries), country-level political trust was related to less social distancing during the first wave. Social trust was related to a higher growth rate of infections. Against the background of these inconsistent findings, we discuss the potential positive and unexpected negative effects of social trust for social distancing.
Project description:ObjectivesIn response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, older adults are advised to follow social distancing measures to prevent infection. However, such measures may increase the risk of loneliness. The current study aimed to investigate (a) whether social distancing measures, particularly limiting close social interactions, are associated with loneliness among older adults, and (b) whether the association between social distancing measures and loneliness is moderated by sociodemographic characteristics.MethodData were from the fourth wave (April 29 to May 26, 2020) of the nationally representative Understanding America Study COVID-19 Survey. We used data on adults 50 years or older (N = 3,253). Logistic regression models of loneliness were performed. Five indicators of social distancing measures were considered: (a) avoiding public spaces, gatherings, or crowds; (b) canceling or postponing social activities; (c) social visits; (d) no close contact (within 6 feet) with people living together; and (e) with people not living together.ResultsCancelling or postponing social activities and avoiding close contact with people living together were associated with 33% (odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, confidence interval [CI] = 1.06-1.68, p < .05) and 47% (OR = 1.47, CI = 1.09-1.99, p < .05) greater odds of loneliness, respectively. Furthermore, limiting close contact with coresidents increased the probability of loneliness more for males, non-Hispanic Whites, and those with higher levels of education and income.DiscussionEfforts should be made to help older adults maintain social connectedness with close others by virtual communication methods. Our findings also call special attention to vulnerable groups at elevated risks of loneliness, emphasizing the need for tailored interventions.
Project description:Because rats are commensal organisms that depend on human activities for food, shifts in human behavior will have pronounced effects on local rat populations. In the spring of 2020, social distancing measures were implemented globally to curtail the spread of SARS-CoV-2. This presented a unique opportunity to obtain information regarding the immediate effects of shifts in human behavior on rat populations in a variety of countries. In response to increased sightings of rats in the USA that were reported in American media, we analyzed the changes in the number of public service calls in Tokyo, Japan. We found that the number of calls increased after the implementation of social distancing measures, suggesting that rat sightings had also increased in Tokyo. We then surveyed the changes in the business activities of pest management professionals in the USA, Canada, and Tokyo. We found that the activities were increased in 50 to 60% of the respondents from the USA and Canada. In contrast, 60 to 70% of the respondents from Tokyo answered that their activities were not changed. These results implied that, following the implementation of social distancing measures, rat infestations increased in North America, but not in Tokyo. The survey also suggested that roof rats were considered to be the predominant rodent species in Tokyo. This may account for the limited infestations in Tokyo because roof rats are more sedentary than brown rats. Taken together, our findings suggest that social distancing measures differentially affected rat populations in North America and Tokyo.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10340-021-01405-z.
Project description:Social distancing (SD) measures aimed at curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 remain an important public health intervention. Little is known about the collateral impact of reduced mobility on the risk of other communicable diseases. We used differences in dengue case counts pre- and post implementation of SD measures and exploited heterogeneity in SD treatment effects among different age groups in Singapore to identify the spillover effects of SD measures. SD policy caused an increase of over 37.2% in dengue cases from baseline. Additional measures to preemptively mitigate the risk of other communicable diseases must be considered before the implementation/reimplementation of SARS-CoV-2 SD measures.
Project description:Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. To estimate the impact of the timing and intensity of such measures, we built a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates age-stratified risks and contact patterns and projects numbers of hospitalizations, patients in intensive care units, ventilator needs, and deaths within US cities. Focusing on the Austin metropolitan area of Texas, we found that immediate and extensive social distancing measures were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases did not exceed local hospital capacity by early May 2020. School closures alone hardly changed the epidemic curve. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks and cause a bed shortage in intensive care units. This analysis informed the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by Austin on March 24, 2020.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Social distancing is one of the community mitigation measures that may be recommended during influenza pandemics. Social distancing can reduce virus transmission by increasing physical distance or reducing frequency of congregation in socially dense community settings, such as schools or workplaces. We conducted a systematic review to assess the evidence that social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces reduces or slows influenza transmission. METHODS:Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, CINAHL, NIOSHTIC-2, and EconLit to identify studies published in English from January 1, 2000, through May 3, 2017. Data extraction was done by two reviewers independently. A narrative synthesis was performed. RESULTS:Fifteen studies, representing 12 modeling and three epidemiological, met the eligibility criteria. The epidemiological studies showed that social distancing was associated with a reduction in influenza-like illness and seroconversion to 2009 influenza A (H1N1). However, the overall risk of bias in the epidemiological studies was serious. The modeling studies estimated that workplace social distancing measures alone produced a median reduction of 23% in the cumulative influenza attack rate in the general population. It also delayed and reduced the peak influenza attack rate. The reduction in the cumulative attack rate was more pronounced when workplace social distancing was combined with other nonpharmaceutical or pharmaceutical interventions. However, the effectiveness was estimated to decline with higher basic reproduction number values, delayed triggering of workplace social distancing, or lower compliance. CONCLUSIONS:Modeling studies support social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces, but there is a paucity of well-designed epidemiological studies. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER:PROSPERO registration # CRD42017065310.
Project description:A study involving over 2000 online participants (US residents) tested a general framework regarding compliance with a directive in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study featured not only a self-report measure of social distancing but also virtual behavior measures-simulations that presented participants with graphical depictions mirroring multiple real-world scenarios and asked them to position themselves in relation to others in the scene. The conceptual framework highlights three essential components of a directive: (1) the source, some entity is advocating for a behavioral change; (2) the surrounding context, the directive is in response to some challenge; and (3) the target, the persons to whom the directive is addressed. Belief systems relevant to each of these three components are predicted, and were found, to relate to compliance with the social distancing directive. The implications of the findings for public service campaigns encouraging people to engage in social distancing are discussed.
Project description:Given maximal social distancing duration and intensity, how can one minimize the epidemic final size, or equivalently the total number of individuals infected during the outbreak? A complete answer to this question is provided and demonstrated here for the SIR epidemic model. In this simplified setting, the optimal solution consists in enforcing the highest confinement level during the longest allowed period, beginning at a time instant that is the unique solution to certain 1D optimization problem. Based on this result, we present numerical essays showing the best possible performance for a large set of basic reproduction numbers and lockdown durations and intensities.
Project description:IntroductionTo mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming the healthcare system, social-distancing policies such as school closure, stay-at-home orders, and indoor dining closure have been utilized worldwide. These policies function by reducing the rate of close contact within populations and result in decreased human mobility. Adherence to social distancing can substantially reduce disease spread. Thus, quantifying human mobility and social-distancing compliance, especially at high temporal resolution, can provide great insight into the impact of social distancing policies.MethodsWe used the movement of individuals around New York City (NYC), measured via traffic levels, as a proxy for human mobility and the impact of social-distancing policies (i.e., work from home policies, school closure, indoor dining closure etc.). By data mining Google traffic in real-time, and applying image processing, we derived high resolution time series of traffic in NYC. We used time series decomposition and generalized additive models to quantify changes in rush hour/non-rush hour, and weekday/weekend traffic, pre-pandemic and following the roll-out of multiple social distancing interventions.ResultsMobility decreased sharply on March 14, 2020 following declaration of the pandemic. However, levels began rebounding by approximately April 13, almost 2 months before stay-at-home orders were lifted, indicating premature increase in mobility, which we term social-distancing fatigue. We also observed large impacts on diurnal traffic congestion, such that the pre-pandemic bi-modal weekday congestion representing morning and evening rush hour was dramatically altered. By September, traffic congestion rebounded to approximately 75% of pre-pandemic levels.ConclusionUsing crowd-sourced traffic congestion data, we described changes in mobility in Manhattan, NYC, during the COVID-19 pandemic. These data can be used to inform human mobility changes during the current pandemic, in planning for responses to future pandemics, and in understanding the potential impact of large-scale traffic interventions such as congestion pricing policies.