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The timeline and risk factors of clinical progression of COVID-19 in Shenzhen, China.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out globally. Early prediction of the clinical progression was essential but still unclear. We aimed to evaluate the timeline of COVID-19 development and analyze risk factors of disease progression. METHODS:In this retrospective study, we included 333 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection hospitalized in the Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen from 10 January to 10 February 2020. Epidemiological feature, clinical records, laboratory and radiology manifestations were collected and analyzed. 323 patients with mild-moderate symptoms on admission were observed to determine whether they exacerbated to severe-critically ill conditions (progressive group) or not (stable group). We used logistic regression to identify the risk factors associated with clinical progression. RESULTS:Of all the 333 patients, 70 (21.0%) patients progressed into severe-critically ill conditions during hospitalization and assigned to the progressive group, 253 (76.0%) patients belonged to the stable group, another 10 patients were severe before admission. we found that the clinical features of aged over 40 (3.80 [1.72, 8.52]), males (2.21 [1.20, 4.07]), with comorbidities (1.78 [1.13, 2.81]) certain exposure history (0.38 [0.20, 0.71]), abnormal radiology manifestations (3.56 [1.13, 11.40]), low level of T lymphocytes (0.99 [0.997, 0.999]), high level of NLR (0.99 [0.97, 1.01]), IL-6 (1.05 [1.03, 1.07]) and CRP (1.67 [1.12, 2.47]) were the risk factors of disease progression by logistic regression. CONCLUSIONS:The potential risk factors of males, older age, with comorbidities, low T lymphocyte level and high level of NLR, CRP, IL-6 can help to predict clinical progression of COVID-19 at an early stage.

SUBMITTER: Wang F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7332535 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The timeline and risk factors of clinical progression of COVID-19 in Shenzhen, China.

Wang Fang F Qu Mengyuan M Zhou Xuan X Zhao Kai K Lai Changxiang C Tang Qiyuan Q Xian Wenjie W Chen Ruikun R Li Xuan X Li Zhiyu Z He Qing Q Liu Lei L

Journal of translational medicine 20200703 1

<h4>Background</h4>The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out globally. Early prediction of the clinical progression was essential but still unclear. We aimed to evaluate the timeline of COVID-19 development and analyze risk factors of disease progression.<h4>Methods</h4>In this retrospective study, we included 333 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection hospitalized in the Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen from 10 January to 10 February 2020. Epidemiological feature ...[more]

PMID: 32620125

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Project description:Background: The risk factors for adverse events of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) have not been well described. We aimed to explore the predictive value of clinical, laboratory and CT imaging characteristics on admission for short-term outcomes of COVID-19 patients. Methods: This multicenter, retrospective, observation study enrolled 703 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to 16 tertiary hospitals from 8 provinces in China between January 10, 2020 and March 13, 2020. Demographic, clinical, laboratory data, CT imaging findings on admission and clinical outcomes were collected and compared. The primary endpoint was in-hospital death, the secondary endpoints were composite clinical adverse outcomes including in-hospital death, admission to intensive care unit (ICU) and requiring invasive mechanical ventilation support (IMV). Multivariable Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank test were used to explore risk factors related to in-hospital death and in-hospital adverse outcomes. Results: Of 703 patients, 55 (8%) developed adverse outcomes (including 33 deceased), 648 (92%) discharged without any adverse outcome. Multivariable regression analysis showed risk factors associated with in-hospital death included ? 2 comorbidities (hazard ratio [HR], 6.734; 95% CI; 3.239-14.003, p < 0.001), leukocytosis (HR, 9.639; 95% CI, 4.572-20.321, p < 0.001), lymphopenia (HR, 4.579; 95% CI, 1.334-15.715, p = 0.016) and CT severity score > 14 (HR, 2.915; 95% CI, 1.376-6.177, p = 0.005) on admission, while older age (HR, 2.231; 95% CI, 1.124-4.427, p = 0.022), ? 2 comorbidities (HR, 4.778; 95% CI; 2.451-9.315, p < 0.001), leukocytosis (HR, 6.349; 95% CI; 3.330-12.108, p < 0.001), lymphopenia (HR, 3.014; 95% CI; 1.356-6.697, p = 0.007) and CT severity score > 14 (HR, 1.946; 95% CI; 1.095-3.459, p = 0.023) were associated with increased odds of composite adverse outcomes. Conclusion: The risk factors of older age, multiple comorbidities, leukocytosis, lymphopenia and higher CT severity score could help clinicians identify patients with potential adverse events.

Project description:BackgroundA worldwide outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), since 2019, has brought a disaster to people all over the world. Many researchers carried out clinical epidemiological studies on patients with COVID-19 previously, but risk factors for patients with different levels of severity are still unclear.Methods562 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from 12 hospitals in China were included in this retrospective study. Related clinical information, therapies, and imaging data were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between patients with severe and non-severe status. We explored the risk factors associated with different severity of COVID-19 patients by logistic regression methods.ResultsBased on the guideline we cited, 509 patients were classified as non-severe and 53 were severe. The age range of whom was 5-87 years, with a median age of 47 (IQR 35.0-57.0). And the elderly patients (older than 60 years old) in non-severe group were more likely to suffer from fever and asthma, accompanied by higher level of D-dimer, red blood cell distribution width and low-density lipoprotein. Furthermore, we found that the liver and kidney function of male patients was worse than that of female patients in both severe and non-severe groups with different age levels, while the severe females had faster ESR and lower inflammatory markers. Of major laboratory markers in non-severe cases, baseline albumin and the lymphocyte percentage were higher, while the white blood cell and the neutrophil count were lower. In addition, severe patients were more likely to be accompanied by an increase in cystatin C, mean hemoglobin level and a decrease in oxygen saturation. Besides that, advanced age and indicators such as count of white blood cell, glucose were proved to be the most common risk factors preventing COVID-19 patients from aggravating.ConclusionThe potential risk factors found in our study have shown great significance to prevent COVID-19 patients from aggravating and turning to critical cases during treatment. Meanwhile, focusing on gender and age factors in groups with different severity of COVID-19, and paying more attention to specific clinical symptoms and characteristics, could improve efficacy of personalized intervention to treat COVID-19 effectively.

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The timeline and risk factors of clinical progression of COVID-19 in Shenzhen, China.

Publications

The timeline and risk factors of clinical progression of COVID-19 in Shenzhen, China.

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