Dataset Information

Machine Learning Framework to Identify Individuals at Risk of Rapid Progression of Coronary Atherosclerosis: From the PARADIGM Registry.

ABSTRACT: Background Rapid coronary plaque progression (RPP) is associated with incident cardiovascular events. To date, no method exists for the identification of individuals at risk of RPP at a single point in time. This study integrated coronary computed tomography angiography-determined qualitative and quantitative plaque features within a machine learning (ML) framework to determine its performance for predicting RPP. Methods and Results Qualitative and quantitative coronary computed tomography angiography plaque characterization was performed in 1083 patients who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography from the PARADIGM (Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging) registry. RPP was defined as an annual progression of percentage atheroma volume ?1.0%. We employed the following ML models: model 1, clinical variables; model 2, model 1 plus qualitative plaque features; model 3, model 2 plus quantitative plaque features. ML models were compared with the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, Duke coronary artery disease score, and a logistic regression statistical model. 224 patients (21%) were identified as RPP. Feature selection in ML identifies that quantitative computed tomography variables were higher-ranking features, followed by qualitative computed tomography variables and clinical/laboratory variables. ML model 3 exhibited the highest discriminatory performance to identify individuals who would experience RPP when compared with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, the other ML models, and the statistical model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in ML model 3, 0.83 [95% CI 0.78-0.89], versus atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, 0.60 [0.52-0.67]; Duke coronary artery disease score, 0.74 [0.68-0.79]; ML model 1, 0.62 [0.55-0.69]; ML model 2, 0.73 [0.67-0.80]; all P<0.001; statistical model, 0.81 [0.75-0.87], P=0.128). Conclusions Based on a ML framework, quantitative atherosclerosis characterization has been shown to be the most important feature when compared with clinical, laboratory, and qualitative measures in identifying patients at risk of RPP.

SUBMITTER: Han D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7335586 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Machine Learning Framework to Identify Individuals at Risk of Rapid Progression of Coronary Atherosclerosis: From the PARADIGM Registry.

Han Donghee D Kolli Kranthi K KK Al'Aref Subhi J SJ Baskaran Lohendran L van Rosendael Alexander R AR Gransar Heidi H Andreini Daniele D Budoff Matthew J MJ Cademartiri Filippo F Chinnaiyan Kavitha K Choi Jung Hyun JH Conte Edoardo E Marques Hugo H de Araújo Gonçalves Pedro P Gottlieb Ilan I Hadamitzky Martin M Leipsic Jonathon A JA Maffei Erica E Pontone Gianluca G Raff Gilbert L GL Shin Sangshoon S Kim Yong-Jin YJ Lee Byoung Kwon BK Chun Eun Ju EJ Sung Ji Min JM Lee Sang-Eun SE Virmani Renu R Samady Habib H Stone Peter P Narula Jagat J Berman Daniel S DS Bax Jeroen J JJ Shaw Leslee J LJ Lin Fay Y FY Min James K JK Chang Hyuk-Jae HJ

Journal of the American Heart Association 20200222 5

Background Rapid coronary plaque progression (RPP) is associated with incident cardiovascular events. To date, no method exists for the identification of individuals at risk of RPP at a single point in time. This study integrated coronary computed tomography angiography-determined qualitative and quantitative plaque features within a machine learning (ML) framework to determine its performance for predicting RPP. Methods and Results Qualitative and quantitative coronary computed tomography angio ...[more]

PMID: 32089046

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Project description:Patient-specific phenotyping of coronary atherosclerosis would facilitate personalized risk assessment and preventive treatment. We explored whether unsupervised cluster analysis can categorize patients with coronary atherosclerosis according to their plaque composition, and determined how these differing plaque composition profiles impact plaque progression. Patients with coronary atherosclerotic plaque (n = 947; median age, 62 years; 59% male) were enrolled from a prospective multi-national registry of consecutive patients who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography (median inter-scan duration, 3.3 years). K-means clustering applied to the percent volume of each plaque component and identified 4 clusters of patients with distinct plaque composition. Cluster 1 (n = 52), which comprised mainly fibro-fatty plaque with a significant necrotic core (median, 55.7% and 16.0% of the total plaque volume, respectively), showed the least total plaque volume (PV) progression (+ 23.3 mm3), with necrotic core and fibro-fatty PV regression (- 5.7 mm3 and - 5.6 mm3, respectively). Cluster 2 (n = 219), which contained largely fibro-fatty (39.2%) and fibrous plaque (46.8%), showed fibro-fatty PV regression (- 2.4 mm3). Cluster 3 (n = 376), which comprised mostly fibrous (62.7%) and calcified plaque (23.6%), showed increasingly prominent calcified PV progression (+ 21.4 mm3). Cluster 4 (n = 300), which comprised mostly calcified plaque (58.7%), demonstrated the greatest total PV increase (+ 50.7mm3), predominantly increasing in calcified PV (+ 35.9 mm3). Multivariable analysis showed higher risk for plaque progression in Clusters 3 and 4, and higher risk for adverse cardiac events in Clusters 2, 3, and 4 compared to that in Cluster 1. Unsupervised clustering algorithms may uniquely characterize patient phenotypes with varied atherosclerotic plaque profiles, yielding distinct patterns of progressive disease and outcome.

Project description:The baseline coronary plaque burden is the most important factor for rapid plaque progression (RPP) in the coronary artery. However, data on the independent predictors of RPP in the absence of a baseline coronary plaque burden are limited. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the predictors for RPP in patients without coronary plaques on baseline coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) images. A total of 402 patients (mean age: 57.6 ± 10.0 years, 49.3% men) without coronary plaques at baseline who underwent serial coronary CCTA were identified from the Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging (PARADIGM) registry and included in this retrospective study. RPP was defined as an annual change of ≥ 1.0%/year in the percentage atheroma volume (PAV). During a median inter-scan period of 3.6 years (interquartile range: 2.7-5.0 years), newly developed coronary plaques and RPP were observed in 35.6% and 4.2% of the patients, respectively. The baseline traditional risk factors, i.e., advanced age (≥ 60 years), male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, obesity, and current smoking status, were not significantly associated with the risk of RPP. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that the serum hemoglobin A1c level (per 1% increase) measured at follow-up CCTA was independently associated with the annual change in the PAV (β: 0.098, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.048-0.149; P < 0.001). The multiple logistic regression models showed that the serum hemoglobin A1c level had an independent and positive association with the risk of RPP. The optimal predictive cut-off value of the hemoglobin A1c level for RPP was 7.05% (sensitivity: 80.0%, specificity: 86.7%; area under curve: 0.816 [95% CI: 0.574-0.999]; P = 0.017). In this retrospective case-control study, the glycemic control status was strongly associated with the risk of RPP in patients without a baseline coronary plaque burden. This suggests that regular monitoring of the glycemic control status might be helpful for preventing the rapid progression of coronary atherosclerosis irrespective of the baseline risk factors. Further randomized investigations are necessary to confirm the results of our study. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411.

Project description:ObjectivesPrediabetes is a major epidemic and is associated with adverse cardio-cerebrovascular outcomes. Early identification of patients who will develop rapid progression of atherosclerosis could be beneficial for improved risk stratification. In this paper, we investigate important factors impacting the prediction, using several machine learning methods, of rapid progression of carotid intima-media thickness in impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) participants.MethodsIn the Actos Now for Prevention of Diabetes (ACT NOW) study, 382 participants with IGT underwent carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) ultrasound evaluation at baseline and at 15-18 months, and were divided into rapid progressors (RP, n = 39, 58 ± 17.5 μM change) and non-rapid progressors (NRP, n = 343, 5.8 ± 20 μM change, p < 0.001 versus RP). To deal with complex multi-modal data consisting of demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables, we propose a general data-driven framework to investigate the ACT NOW dataset. In particular, we first employed a Fisher Score-based feature selection method to identify the most effective variables and then proposed a probabilistic Bayes-based learning method for the prediction. Comparison of the methods and factors was conducted using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses and Brier score.ResultsThe experimental results show that the proposed learning methods performed well in identifying or predicting RP. Among the methods, the performance of Naïve Bayes was the best (AUC 0.797, Brier score 0.085) compared to multilayer perceptron (0.729, 0.086) and random forest (0.642, 0.10). The results also show that feature selection has a significant positive impact on the data prediction performance.ConclusionsBy dealing with multi-modal data, the proposed learning methods show effectiveness in predicting prediabetics at risk for rapid atherosclerosis progression. The proposed framework demonstrated utility in outcome prediction in a typical multidimensional clinical dataset with a relatively small number of subjects, extending the potential utility of machine learning approaches beyond extremely large-scale datasets.

Project description:AimsTo define endotypes of carotid subclinical atherosclerosis.Methods and resultsWe integrated demographic, clinical, and molecular data (n = 124) with ultrasonographic carotid measurements from study participants in the IMPROVE cohort (n = 3340). We applied a neural network algorithm and hierarchical clustering to identify carotid atherosclerosis endotypes. A measure of carotid subclinical atherosclerosis, the c-IMTmean-max, was used to extract atherosclerosis-related features and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to reveal endotypes. The association of endotypes with carotid ultrasonographic measurements at baseline, after 30 months, and with the 3-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk was estimated by linear (β, SE) and Cox [hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI)] regression models. Crude estimates were adjusted by common cardiovascular risk factors, and baseline ultrasonographic measures. Improvement in ASCVD risk prediction was evaluated by C-statistic and by net reclassification improvement with reference to SCORE2, c-IMTmean-max, and presence of carotid plaques. An ensemble stacking model was used to predict endotypes in an independent validation cohort, the PIVUS (n = 1061). We identified four endotypes able to differentiate carotid atherosclerosis risk profiles from mild (endotype 1) to severe (endotype 4). SHAP identified endotype-shared variables (age, biological sex, and systolic blood pressure) and endotype-specific biomarkers. In the IMPROVE, as compared to endotype 1, endotype 4 associated with the thickest c-IMT at baseline (β, SE) 0.36 (0.014), the highest number of plaques 1.65 (0.075), the fastest c-IMT progression 0.06 (0.013), and the highest ASCVD risk (HR, 95% CI) (1.95, 1.18-3.23). Baseline and progression measures of carotid subclinical atherosclerosis and ASCVD risk were associated with the predicted endotypes in the PIVUS. Endotypes consistently improved measures of ASCVD risk discrimination and reclassification in both study populations.ConclusionsWe report four replicable subclinical carotid atherosclerosis-endotypes associated with progression of atherosclerosis and ASCVD risk in two independent populations. Our approach based on endotypes can be applied for precision medicine in ASCVD prevention.

Project description:BackgroundAn increasing number of authors employing intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) and virtual histology (VH-IVUS) have investigated the effect of statin use on plaque volume (PV) and plaque composition. However, inconsistent results have been reported. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine the appropriate regimen of statins to effectively stabilize vulnerable coronary plaques.MethodsOnline electronic databases were carefully searched for all relevant studies. We compared mean values of PV and plaque composition between baseline and follow-up in patients receiving statin therapy. We pooled treatment effects and calculated mean differences (MD) with the 95% confidence interval (CI) using a random-effects model. By stratified analyses, we explored the influence of clinical presentation, dose and duration of statin treatment, and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels on the effects of statins.ResultsSeventeen studies involving 2,171 patients were analyzed. Statin therapy significantly decreased PV (-5.3 mm(3); 95% CI: -3.3 mm(3) to -7.2 mm(3) P < 0.001), without heterogeneity. When considering the dose and duration of statins used, only subgroups employing a high dose and long duration demonstrated a significant reduction in PV (p < 0.001). A significant decrease in PV was noted if achieved LDL-C levels were <100 mg/dL (p < 0.001). Statin treatment could induce a twofold decrease in PV in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) compared with that observed in patients with stable angina pectoris (SAP). A regressive trend was seen for necrotic core volume (MD: -2.1 mm(3); 95% CI: -4.7 mm(3) to 0.5 mm(3), P = 0.11). However, statin use did not induce a significant change for fibrotic, fibro-fatty, or dense calcium compositions.ConclusionsOur meta-analysis demonstrated that statin therapy (especially that involving a high dose and long duration and achieving <100 mg/dL LDL-C levels) can significantly decrease PV in patients with SAP or ACS. These data suggested that statins can be used to reduce the atheroma burden for secondary prevention by appropriately selecting the statin regimen. No significant change in plaque composition was seen after statin therapy.

Dataset Information

Machine Learning Framework to Identify Individuals at Risk of Rapid Progression of Coronary Atherosclerosis: From the PARADIGM Registry.

Publications

Machine Learning Framework to Identify Individuals at Risk of Rapid Progression of Coronary Atherosclerosis: From the PARADIGM Registry.

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