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New-onset atrial fibrillation: incidence, characteristics, and related events following a national COVID-19 lockdown of 5.6 million people.

ABSTRACT: AIM:To determine the incidence, patient characteristics, and related events associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during a national COVID-19 lockdown. METHODS AND RESULTS:Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients, aged 18-90 years, receiving a new-onset AF diagnosis during the first 3 months of 2019 and 2020. The main comparison was between patients diagnosed during lockdown (12 March 12-1 April 2020) and patients diagnosed in the corresponding period 1 year previously. We found a lower incidence of new-onset AF during the 3 weeks of lockdown compared with the corresponding weeks in 2019 [incidence rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the 3 weeks: 0.66 (0.56-0.78), 0.53 (0.45-0.64), and 0.41 (0.34-0.50)]. There was a 47% drop in total numbers (562 vs. 1053). Patients diagnosed during lockdown were younger and with a lower CHA2DS2-VASc score, while history of cancer, heart failure, and vascular disease were more prevalent. During lockdown, 30 (5.3%) patients with new-onset AF suffered an ischaemic stroke and 15 (2.7%) died, compared with 45 (4.3%) and 14 (1.3%) patients during the corresponding 2019 period, respectively. The adjusted odds ratio of a related event (ischaemic stroke or all-cause death) during lock-down compared with the corresponding weeks was 1.41 (95% CI 0.93-2.12). CONCLUSIONS:Following a national lockdown in Denmark, a 47% drop in registered new-onset AF cases was observed. In the event of prolonged or subsequent lockdowns, the risk of undiagnosed AF patients developing complications could potentially translate into poorer outcomes in patients with AF during the COVID-19 pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Holt A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7337750 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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New-onset atrial fibrillation: incidence, characteristics, and related events following a national COVID-19 lockdown of 5.6 million people.

Holt Anders A Gislason Gunnar H GH Schou Morten M Zareini Bochra B Biering-Sørensen Tor T Phelps Matthew M Kragholm Kristian K Andersson Charlotte C Fosbøl Emil L EL Hansen Morten Lock ML Gerds Thomas A TA Køber Lars L Torp-Pedersen Christian C Lamberts Morten M

European heart journal 20200601 32

<h4>Aim</h4>To determine the incidence, patient characteristics, and related events associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during a national COVID-19 lockdown.<h4>Methods and results</h4>Using nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients, aged 18-90 years, receiving a new-onset AF diagnosis during the first 3 months of 2019 and 2020. The main comparison was between patients diagnosed during lockdown (12 March 12-1 April 2020) and patients diagnosed in the corresponding peri ...[more]

PMID: 32578859

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Project description:ImportanceData on the burden of new-onset atrial fibrillation after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) and surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) is limited mostly to small series or post hoc analyses of clinical trials.ObjectivesTo evaluate the incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation and assess the incidence of in-hospital mortality associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation after TAVI and AVR.Design, setting, and participantsIn this population-based observational study using the National Inpatient Sample and a validation cohort from the New York state inpatient database, the National Inpatient Sample was queried from January 1, 2012, to September 30, 2015, and the New York state inpatient database was queried from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2014. Hospitalizations of adults undergoing TAVI or isolated AVR were examined. The incidence of in-hospital mortality across groups with new-onset atrial fibrillation was assessed in the National Inpatient Sample cohort using multivariable logistic regression modeling. Statistical analysis was conducted from August 20, 2018, to March 19, 2019.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was the occurrence of new-onset atrial fibrillation, which was identified by excluding hospitalizations in which atrial fibrillation was present on admission. The secondary outcome was in-hospital mortality in TAVI and AVR hospitalizations with and without new-onset atrial fibrillation.ResultsA total of 48 715 TAVI hospitalizations (47.4% women and 52.6% men; mean [SD] age, 81.3 [8.1] years; 82.3% white) and 122 765 AVR hospitalizations (39.0% women and 61.0% men; mean [SD] age, 67.8 [12.0] years; 78.0% white) were identified. New-onset atrial fibrillation occurred in 50.4% of TAVI hospitalizations and 50.1% of AVR hospitalizations. In the multivariable-adjusted model, TAVI and AVR hospitalizations with new-onset atrial fibrillation had higher odds of in-hospital mortality compared with hospitalizations without new-onset atrial fibrillation (TAVI: odds ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.21-2.04; and AVR: odds ratio, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.08-1.70). The results were then confirmed with the New York state inpatient database, which contains a present on arrival indicator. The incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation was 14.1% (244 of 1736 hospitalizations) after TAVI and 30.6% (1573 of 5141 hospitalizations) after AVR in the New York state inpatient database.Conclusions and relevanceIn this large nationwide study, a substantial burden of new-onset atrial fibrillation was observed after TAVI and AVR. The incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation was higher after AVR than after TAVI in a patient-level state inpatient database.

Project description:BackgroundPopulation-based studies of atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence are needed to inform health-service planning, but evidence is conflicting. We assessed trends of AF incidence in a large general population cohort from England.MethodsWe used linked primary and secondary electronic health records of 3.4 million individuals. Eligible patients aged 16 years and older contributed data between Jan 2 1998 and Dec 31 2017. For patients with incident AF, we extracted baseline characteristics, comorbidities, socioeconomic status and geographic region. We calculated standardised rates by applying direct age and sex standardisation to the 2013 European Standard Population. We applied year-specific, age-specific and sex-specific incidence to UK census mid-year population estimates for yearly total incident AF.FindingsComparing 2017 to 1998 standardised AF incidence increased by 30% (322 vs. 247 per 100 000 person-years; adjusted incidence ratio [IRR] 1·30, 95% CI 1·27-1·33). Absolute number of incident AF increased by 72% (202 333 vs. 117 880), due to an increasing number of older persons. Comorbidity burden at diagnosis of AF increased (3·74 [SD 2·29] vs 2·58 [1·83]; adjusted difference 1·26, 95% CI 1·14-1·39). The age of AF diagnosis declined in the most deprived individuals compared to the most affluent (adjusted difference 0·74 years, 0·62-0·88). Across the study period, age-standardised incidence was higher in men than women (IRR 1·49; 95% CI 1·46-1·52), and men were younger at diagnosis (adjusted difference 5·53 years; 95% CI 5·36 to 5·69). Socioeconomically deprived individuals had more comorbidities and a higher incidence of AF than the most affluent individuals (IRR 1·20; 95% CI 1·15-1·24).InterpretationIn England AF incidence has increased, and the socioeconomic gradient in age at diagnosis and comorbidity burden widened. This changing burden requires policy-based interventions to achieve health equity.FundingBritish Heart Foundation and National Institute for Health Research.

Project description:CONTEXT:Although the heritability of atrial fibrillation (AF) is established, the contribution of familial AF to predicting new-onset AF remains unknown. OBJECTIVE:To determine whether familial occurrence of AF is associated with new-onset AF beyond established risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:The Framingham Heart Study, a prospective community-based cohort study started in 1948. Original and Offspring Cohort participants were aged at least 30 years, were free of AF at the baseline examination, and had at least 1 parent or sibling enrolled in the study. The 4421 participants in this analysis (mean age, 54 [SD, 13] years; 54% women) were followed up through December 31, 2007. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Incremental predictive value of incorporating different features of familial AF (any familial AF, premature familial AF [onset ?65 years old], number of affected relatives, and youngest age of onset in a relative) into a risk model for new-onset AF. RESULTS:Across 11,971 examinations during the period 1968-2007, 440 participants developed AF. Familial AF occurred among 1185 participants (26.8%) and premature familial AF occurred among 351 participants (7.9%). Atrial fibrillation occurred more frequently among participants with familial AF than without familial AF (unadjusted absolute event rates of 5.8% and 3.1%, respectively). The association was not attenuated by adjustment for AF risk factors (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.74) or reported AF-related genetic variants. Among the different features of familial AF examined, premature familial AF was associated with improved discrimination beyond traditional risk factors to the greatest extent (traditional risk factors, C statistic, 0.842 [95% CI, 0.826-0.858]; premature familial AF, C statistic, 0.846 [95% CI, 0.831-0.862]; P = .004). Modest changes in integrated discrimination improvement were observed with premature familial AF (2.1%). Net reclassification improvement (assessed using 8-year risk thresholds of <5%, 5%-10%, and >10%) did not change significantly with premature familial AF (index statistic, 0.011; 95% CI, -0.021 to 0.042; P = .51), although categoryless net reclassification was improved (index statistic, 0.127; 95% CI, 0.064-0.189; P = .009). CONCLUSIONS:In this cohort, familial AF was associated with an increased risk of AF that was not attenuated by adjustment for AF risk factors including genetic variants. Assessment of premature familial AF was associated with a very slight increase in predictive accuracy compared with traditional risk factors.

Dataset Information

New-onset atrial fibrillation: incidence, characteristics, and related events following a national COVID-19 lockdown of 5.6 million people.

Publications

New-onset atrial fibrillation: incidence, characteristics, and related events following a national COVID-19 lockdown of 5.6 million people.

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