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Atrial fibrillation epidemiology, disparity and healthcare contacts: a population-wide study of 5.6 million individuals.

ABSTRACT: Background: We aimed to evaluate atrial fibrillation occurrence, reasons for healthcare visits, mortality, causes of death and examined patterns by relative deprivation in the UK. Methods: To study the atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence, mortality and case-fatality, we implemented a prospective cohort study with the linked electronic health records of 5.6 million population in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 1998 to 2016. A matched case-control study was used to investigate causes of hospitalisation and death comparing individuals with and without incident AF. Results: During a median follow-up of 10.3 years, 199,433(3.6%) patients developed incident AF. Increased risk of hospitalisation for heart failure, cardiovascular conditions and infection was present among patients who later developed AF. Following an AF diagnosis, patients were frequently admitted to the hospital for heart failure, lower respiratory tract infection, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and ischemic heart disease. One in 5 AF patients died during the first year after diagnosis, and the mortality increased to 42.7% at the fifth year. The excess deaths in AF cases compared to controls may result from cardiovascular diseases, infection and metabolic disorders. Individuals from areas with higher deprivation in socioeconomic and living status had both higher AF incidence and fatality. Interpretation: We observed an elevated risk of hospitalisation for cardiovascular or respiratory diseases among incident AF patients, and the considerable disparity in AF burden by socioeconomic deprivation informs priorities for prevention and provision of patient care. Funding: The study was supported by the GlaxoSmithKline, University College London Hospital and National Institute for Health Research. The funders did not have any role in study design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation, and writing of the report.

SUBMITTER: Chung SC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8351189 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of stroke and heart failure. Electronic health record (EHR)-based AF risk prediction may facilitate efficient deployment of interventions to diagnose or prevent AF altogether.MethodsWe externally validated an electronic health record AF (EHR-AF) score in IBM Explorys Life Sciences, a multi-institutional dataset containing statistically deidentified EHR data for over 21 million individuals (Explorys Dataset). We included individuals with complete AF risk data, ≥2 office visits within 2 years, and no prevalent AF. We compared EHR-AF to existing scores including CHARGE-AF (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology Atrial Fibrillation), C2HEST (coronary artery disease or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, elderly, systolic heart failure, thyroid disease), and CHA2DS2-VASc. We assessed association between AF risk scores and 5-year incident AF, stroke, and heart failure using Cox proportional hazards modeling, 5-year AF discrimination using C indices, and calibration of predicted AF risk to observed AF incidence.ResultsOf 21 825 853 individuals in the Explorys Dataset, 4 508 180 comprised the analysis (age 62.5, 56.3% female). AF risk scores were strongly associated with 5-year incident AF (hazard ratio per SD increase 1.85 using CHA2DS2-VASc to 2.88 using EHR-AF), stroke (1.61 using C2HEST to 1.92 using CHARGE-AF), and heart failure (1.91 using CHA2DS2-VASc to 2.58 using EHR-AF). EHR-AF (C index, 0.808 [95% CI, 0.807-0.809]) demonstrated favorable AF discrimination compared to CHARGE-AF (0.806 [95% CI, 0.805-0.807]), C2HEST (0.683 [95% CI, 0.682-0.684]), and CHA2DS2-VASc (0.720 [95% CI, 0.719-0.722]). Of the scores, EHR-AF demonstrated the best calibration to incident AF (calibration slope, 1.002 [95% CI, 0.997-1.007]). In subgroup analyses, AF discrimination using EHR-AF was lower in individuals with stroke (C index, 0.696 [95% CI, 0.692-0.700]) and heart failure (0.621 [95% CI, 0.617-0.625]).ConclusionsEHR-AF demonstrates predictive accuracy for incident AF using readily ascertained EHR data. AF risk is associated with incident stroke and heart failure. Use of such risk scores may facilitate decision support and population health management efforts focused on minimizing AF-related morbidity.

Project description:BackgroundPopulation-based studies of atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence are needed to inform health-service planning, but evidence is conflicting. We assessed trends of AF incidence in a large general population cohort from England.MethodsWe used linked primary and secondary electronic health records of 3.4 million individuals. Eligible patients aged 16 years and older contributed data between Jan 2 1998 and Dec 31 2017. For patients with incident AF, we extracted baseline characteristics, comorbidities, socioeconomic status and geographic region. We calculated standardised rates by applying direct age and sex standardisation to the 2013 European Standard Population. We applied year-specific, age-specific and sex-specific incidence to UK census mid-year population estimates for yearly total incident AF.FindingsComparing 2017 to 1998 standardised AF incidence increased by 30% (322 vs. 247 per 100 000 person-years; adjusted incidence ratio [IRR] 1·30, 95% CI 1·27-1·33). Absolute number of incident AF increased by 72% (202 333 vs. 117 880), due to an increasing number of older persons. Comorbidity burden at diagnosis of AF increased (3·74 [SD 2·29] vs 2·58 [1·83]; adjusted difference 1·26, 95% CI 1·14-1·39). The age of AF diagnosis declined in the most deprived individuals compared to the most affluent (adjusted difference 0·74 years, 0·62-0·88). Across the study period, age-standardised incidence was higher in men than women (IRR 1·49; 95% CI 1·46-1·52), and men were younger at diagnosis (adjusted difference 5·53 years; 95% CI 5·36 to 5·69). Socioeconomically deprived individuals had more comorbidities and a higher incidence of AF than the most affluent individuals (IRR 1·20; 95% CI 1·15-1·24).InterpretationIn England AF incidence has increased, and the socioeconomic gradient in age at diagnosis and comorbidity burden widened. This changing burden requires policy-based interventions to achieve health equity.FundingBritish Heart Foundation and National Institute for Health Research.

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Atrial fibrillation epidemiology, disparity and healthcare contacts: a population-wide study of 5.6 million individuals.

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