Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: A major step towards achieving the goals of the Paris agreement would be a measurable change in the evolution of global warming in response to mitigation of anthropogenic emissions. The inertia and internal variability of the climate system, however, will delay the emergence of a discernible response even to strong, sustained mitigation. Here, we investigate when we could expect a significant change in the evolution of global mean surface temperature after strong mitigation of individual climate forcers. Anthropogenic CO2 has the highest potential for a rapidly measurable influence, combined with long term benefits, but the required mitigation is very strong. Black Carbon (BC) mitigation could be rapidly discernible, but has a low net gain in the longer term. Methane mitigation combines rapid effects on surface temperature with long term effects. For other gases or aerosols, even fully removing anthropogenic emissions is unlikely to have a discernible impact before mid-century.
Project description:The rate of global surface warming is crucial for tracking progress towards global climate targets, but is strongly influenced by interannual-to-decadal variability, which precludes rapid detection of the temperature response to emission mitigation. Here we use a physics based Green's function approach to filter out modulations to global mean surface temperature from sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns, and show that it results in an earlier emergence of a response to strong emissions mitigation. For observed temperatures, we find a filtered 2011-2020 surface warming rate of 0.24 °C per decade, consistent with long-term trends. Unfiltered observations show 0.35 °C per decade, partly due to the El Nino of 2015-2016. Pattern filtered warming rates can become a strong tool for the climate community to inform policy makers and stakeholder communities about the ongoing and expected climate responses to emission reductions, provided an effort is made to improve and validate standardized Green's functions.
Project description:Mercury (Hg) is emitted to air by natural and anthropogenic sources, transports and deposits globally, and bioaccumulates to toxic levels in food webs. It is addressed under the global 2017 Minamata Convention, for which periodic effectiveness evaluation is required. Previous analyses have estimated the impact of different regulatory strategies for future mercury deposition. However, analyses using atmospheric models traditionally hold legacy emissions (recycling of previously deposited Hg) constant, and do not account for their possible future growth. Here, using an integrated modeling approach, we investigate how delays in implementing emissions reductions and the associated growing legacy reservoir affect deposition fluxes to ecosystems in different global regions. Assuming nearly constant yearly emissions relative to 2010, each 5-year delay in peak emissions defers by additional extra ca. 4 years the return to year 2010 global deposition. On a global average, each 5-year delay leads to a 14% decrease in policy impacts on local-scale Hg deposition. We also investigate the response of fish contamination in remote lakes to delayed action. We quantify the consequences of delay for limiting the Hg burden of future generations and show that traditional analyses of policy impacts provide best-case estimates.
Project description:Cement plays a dual role in the global carbon cycle like a sponge: its massive production contributes significantly to present-day global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, yet its hydrated products gradually reabsorb substantial amounts of atmospheric CO2 (carbonation) in the future. The role of this sponge effect along the cement cycle (including production, use, and demolition) in carbon emissions mitigation, however, remains hitherto unexplored. Here, we quantify the effects of demand- and supply-side mitigation measures considering this material-energy-emissions-uptake nexus, finding that climate goals would be imperiled if the growth of cement stocks continues. Future reabsorption of CO2 will be significant (~30% of cumulative CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2100), but climate goal compliant net CO2 emissions reduction along the global cement cycle will require both radical technology advancements (e.g., carbon capture and storage) and widespread deployment of material efficiency measures, which go beyond those envisaged in current technology roadmaps.
Project description:Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are a crucial component of biosphere-atmosphere interactions. In northern latitudes, climate change is amplified by feedback processes in which BVOCs have a recognized, yet poorly quantified role, mainly due to a lack of measurements and concomitant modeling gaps. Hence, current Earth system models mostly rely on temperature responses measured on vegetation from lower latitudes, rendering their predictions highly uncertain. Here, we show how tundra isoprene emissions respond vigorously to temperature increases, compared to model results. Our unique dataset of direct eddy covariance ecosystem-level isoprene measurements in two contrasting ecosystems exhibited Q10 (the factor by which the emission rate increases with a 10 °C rise in temperature) temperature coefficients of up to 20.8, that is, 3.5 times the Q10 of 5.9 derived from the equivalent model calculations. Crude estimates using the observed temperature responses indicate that tundra vegetation could enhance their isoprene emissions by up to 41% (87%)-that is, 46% (55%) more than estimated by models-with a 2 °C (4 °C) warming. Our results demonstrate that tundra vegetation possesses the potential to substantially boost its isoprene emissions in response to future rising temperatures, at rates that exceed the current Earth system model predictions.
Project description:National committed greenhouse gas emission reduction actions are the center of the Paris Agreement, and are known as 'Intended Nationally Determined Contributions' (INDC) that aim to slow down global warming. The climate response to INDC emission reduction is a focus in climate change science. In this study, data from 32 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in Central Asia (CA) under the INDC scenario above the present-day level. The results show that the magnitude of warming in CA is remarkably higher than the global mean. Almost all the regions in CA will experience more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme high-temperature events. In comparison with the INDC scenario, the reduced warming of the 2.0 °C/1.5 °C target scenarios will help avoid approximately 44-61%/65-80% of the increase in extreme temperature events in terms of the intensity, frequency, and duration in CA. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the benefits of limiting global warming to the 2.0 °C/1.5 °C targets, which is paramount for mitigation and adaptation planning.
Project description:Biogenic isoprene emissions play a very important role in atmospheric chemistry. These emissions are strongly dependent on various environmental conditions, such as temperature, solar radiation, plant water stress, ambient ozone and CO2 concentrations, and soil moisture. Current biogenic emission models (i.e., Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN) can simulate emission responses to some of the major driving variables, such as short-term variations in temperature and solar radiation, but the other factors are either missing or poorly represented. In this paper, we propose a new modeling approach that considers the physiological effects of drought stress on plant photosynthesis and isoprene emissions for use in the MEGAN3 biogenic emission model. We test the MEGAN3 approach by integrating the algorithm into the existing MEGAN2.1 biogenic emission model framework embedded into the global Community Land Model of the Community Earth System Model (CLM4.5/CESM1.2). Single-point simulations are compared against available field measurements at the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) field site. The modeling results show that the MEGAN3 approach of using of a photosynthesis parameter (Vcmax) and soil wetness factor (βt) to determine the drought activity factor leads to better simulated isoprene emissions in non-drought and drought periods. The global simulation with the MEGAN3 approach predicts a 17% reduction in global annual isoprene emissions, in comparison to the value predicted using the default CLM4.5/MEGAN2.1 without any drought effect. This reduction leads to changes in surface ozone and oxidants in the areas where the reduction of isoprene emissions is observed. Based on the results presented in this study, we conclude that it is important to simulate the drought-induced response of biogenic isoprene emission accurately in the coupled Earth System model.
Project description:This data article provides a high-resolution raw data on Nitrous Oxide (N2O) emission and its mitigation potential from global maize and wheat fields. The analytical results, discussion and conclusion thereof is presented in the related manuscript "Model Comparison and Quantification of Nitrous Oxide Emission and Mitigation Potential from Maize and Wheat Fields at a Global Scale" [1]. This raw dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.0833° × 0.0833°, and comprises pixel level baseline emissions estimated using four empirical N2O emission models (CCAFS-MOT, IPCC Tier-I, IPCC Tier-II and Tropical-N2O) and the model results were validated using experimental data extracted from the literature. Spatially explicit soil, climate and crop management data were obtained from various sources detailed in "Experimental Design, Materials and Methods" section below. N2O mitigation potential were then quantified under four scenarios of excess nitrogen reduction (i.e. 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% reduction of excess nitrogen). We believe that the dataset is a valuable source of information to assess N2O emissions and mitigation measures from maize and wheat fields and to make informed decision. Countries can use this dataset to determine emissions reduction targets in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from agricultural sector.
Project description:Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of approximately 1.4 degrees C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming.
Project description:Three novel donor-acceptor molecules comprising the underexplored pyridazine (Pydz) acceptor moiety have been synthesized and their structural, electrochemical and photophysical properties thoroughly characterized. Combining Pydz with two phenoxazine donor units linked via a phenyl bridge in a meta configuration (dPXZMePydz) leads to high reverse intersystem crossing rate k RISC = 3.9 · 106 s-1 and fast thermally activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) with <500 ns delayed emission lifetime. Efficient triplet harvesting via the TADF mechanism is demonstrated in OLEDs using dPXZMePydz as the emitter but does not occur for compounds bearing weaker donor units.
Project description:Vegetated land surfaces play an important role in determining the fate of carbon in the global carbon cycle. However, our understanding of the terrestrial biosphere on a global scale is subject to considerable uncertainty, especially concerning the impacts of climatic variables on the carbon cycle. Soil is a source and also a sink of CO2 exchange and helps in carbon sequestration. Agricultural management practices influence soil water dynamics, as well as carbon cycling by changing soil CO2 emission and uptake rates. The rate of soil CO2 emission varies for different crops and different organic amendments. The major goal of this study was to assess the impacts of the type and rate of organic amendment on soil CO2 emission in a collard greens crop grown in the southeast Texas environment. Thirty-six plots were developed to grow collard greens on Prairie View A&M University's Research Farm. Three types of organic amendments (Chicken manure, Dairy manure, and Milorganite), at four levels of application (0, 168, 336, and 672 kg N/ha) were used and replicated three times. Each organic amendment type was applied to nine randomly selected plots. Three random plots were used as a control in each row. We measured daily soil CO2 emission for the first two weeks and every other day in a week during the experiment. We evaluated the effects of organic amendments and the application rates on soil CO2 emission for collard greens during two growing seasons. The results showed higher the application rates for each organic amendment, higher the CO2 emissions from the soil. The results also showed higher cumulative CO2 emissions for the soils amended with chicken manure and milorganite, but lowest for the soils amended with dairy manure. This field experiment and analyses help better understand the temporal and spatial variations of soil CO2 emission, and also help to develop best management practices to maximize carbon sequestration and to minimize soil CO2 emissions during the growth periods of collard greens under changing temperatures using different organic amendments, and application rates.