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Eliminating Hepatitis C Virus Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Men Who Have Sex With Men in Berlin: A Modeling Analysis.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Despite high hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment rates, HCV incidence among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men who have sex with men (HIV-infected MSM) in Germany rose before HCV direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). We model what intervention can achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) elimination target of an 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030 among HIV-infected MSM in Berlin. METHODS:An HCV transmission model among HIV-diagnosed MSM was calibrated to Berlin (rising HCV incidence and high rates of HCV testing and treatment). We modeled the HCV incidence among HIV-diagnosed MSM in Berlin until 2030 (relative to 2015 WHO baseline) under scenarios of DAA scale-up with or without behavior change (among HIV-diagnosed MSM and/or all MSM). RESULTS:Continuing current treatment rates will marginally reduce the HCV incidence among HIV-diagnosed MSM in Berlin by 2030. Scaling up DAA treatment rates, beginning in 2018, to 100% of newly diagnosed HCV infections within 3 months of diagnosis and 25% each year of previously diagnosed and untreated HCV infections could reduce the HCV incidence by 61% (95% confidence interval, 55.4%-66.7%) by 2030. The WHO target would likely be achieved by combining DAA scale-up with a 40% reduction in HCV transmission among HIV-diagnosed MSM and a 20% reduction among HIV-undiagnosed or HIV-uninfected MSM. DISCUSSION:HCV elimination among HIV-infected MSM in Berlin likely requires combining DAA scale-up with moderately effective behavioral interventions to reduce risk among all MSM.

SUBMITTER: Martin NK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7360352 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Eliminating Hepatitis C Virus Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Men Who Have Sex With Men in Berlin: A Modeling Analysis.

Martin Natasha K NK Jansen Klaus K An der Heiden Matthias M Boesecke Christoph C Boyd Anders A Schewe Knud K Baumgarten Axel A Lutz Thomas T Christensen Stefan S Thielen Alexander A Mauss Stefan S Rockstroh Jürgen K JK Skaathun Britt B Ingiliz Patrick P

The Journal of infectious diseases 20191001 10

<h4>Background</h4>Despite high hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment rates, HCV incidence among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men who have sex with men (HIV-infected MSM) in Germany rose before HCV direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). We model what intervention can achieve the World Health Organization (WHO) elimination target of an 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030 among HIV-infected MSM in Berlin.<h4>Methods</h4>An HCV transmission model among HIV-diagnosed MSM was calibrated to Be ...[more]

PMID: 31301142

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Project description:The incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men who have sex with men has increased in recent years and is associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Behavioral interventions that target high-risk behavior associated with HCV transmission and treatment with direct-acting antivirals may prevent further HCV infections. We predicted the effect of behavioral and treatment interventions on HCV incidence and prevalence among HIV-infected men who have sex with men up to 2030 using a HCV transmission model parameterized with data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We assessed behavioral interventions associated with further increase, stabilization, and decrease in the size of the population with high-risk behavior. Treatment interventions included increase in treatment uptake and use of direct-acting antivirals. If we assumed that without behavioral interventions high-risk behavior spread further according to the trends observed over the last decade and that the treatment practice did not change, HCV incidence converged to 10.7/100 person-years. All assessed behavioral interventions alone resulted in reduced HCV transmissions. Stabilization of high-risk behavior combined with increased treatment uptake and the use of direct-acting antivirals reduced incidence by 77% (from 2.2 in 2015 to 0.5/100 person-years) and prevalence by 81% (from 4.8% in 2015 to 0.9%) over the next 15 years. Increasing treatment uptake was more effective than increasing treatment efficacy to reduce HCV incidence and prevalence. A decrease in high-risk behavior led to a rapid decline in HCV incidence, independent of treatment interventions.ConclusionTreatment interventions to curb the HCV epidemic among HIV-infected men who have sex with men are effective if high-risk behavior does not increase as it has during the last decade; reducing high-risk behavior associated with HCV transmission would be the most effective intervention for controlling the HCV epidemic, even if this was not accompanied by an increase in treatment uptake or efficacy. (Hepatology 2016;64:1856-1869).

Project description:Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses continue to increase among young men who have sex with men (YMSM). Many YMSM living with HIV engage in sexual risk behaviors, and those who have a detectable viral load can transmit HIV to sex partners. Understanding factors that are related to sexual risk taking among virologically detectable (VL+) YMSM can inform prevention and treatment efforts.To describe differences between virologically suppressed (VL-) and VL+ YMSM living with HIV and to identify correlates of condomless anal intercourse (CAI) and serodiscordant CAI among VL+ YMSM.In this cross-sectional survey conducted from December 1, 2009, through June 30, 2012, we studied 991 HIV-infected YMSM 15 to 26 years of age at 20 adolescent HIV clinics in the United States. Data analysis was conducted December 1, 2013, through July 31, 2015.Demographic, behavioral, and psychosocial assessments obtained using audio computer-assisted self-interviews. Viral load information was obtained via blood draw or medical record abstraction.Of the 991 participants, 688 (69.4%) were VL+ and 458 (46.2%) reported CAI, with 310 (31.3%) reporting serodiscordant CAI in the past 3 months. The VL+ YMSM were more likely than the VL- YMSM to report CAI (detectable, 266 [54.7%]; suppressed, 91 [44.4%]; P =?.01) and serodiscordant CAI (detectable, 187 [34.9%]; suppressed, 57 [25.0%]; P <?.01). Multivariable analyses indicated that among VL+ YMSM, those reporting problematic substance use were more likely to report CAI (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.02-2.10) and serodiscordant CAI (AOR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.06-1.99). Black VL+ YMSM were less likely to report CAI (AOR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.44-0.90) or serodiscordant CAI (AOR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.94) compared with other VL+ YMSM. In addition, VL+ YMSM who disclosed their HIV status to sex partners were more likely to report CAI compared with nondisclosing YMSM (AOR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.01-1.81). Transgender participants were less likely to report CAI than cisgender participants (AOR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.14-0.85). Last, VL+ YMSM who reported currently being employed were less likely to report serodiscordant CAI than those who were unemployed (AOR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.55-0.99).Targeted multilevel interventions are needed to reduce HIV transmission risk behaviors among YMSM living with HIV, particularly among those who are VL+.

Dataset Information

Eliminating Hepatitis C Virus Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Men Who Have Sex With Men in Berlin: A Modeling Analysis.

Publications

Eliminating Hepatitis C Virus Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Men Who Have Sex With Men in Berlin: A Modeling Analysis.

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