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Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza A cases.

ABSTRACT: Seasonal variation in the age distribution of influenza A cases suggests that factors other than age shape susceptibility to medically attended infection. We ask whether these differences can be partly explained by protection conferred by childhood influenza infection, which has lasting impacts on immune responses to influenza and protection against new influenza A subtypes (phenomena known as original antigenic sin and immune imprinting). Fitting a statistical model to data from studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), we find that primary infection appears to reduce the risk of medically attended infection with that subtype throughout life. This effect is stronger for H1N1 compared to H3N2. Additionally, we find evidence that VE varies with both age and birth year, suggesting that VE is sensitive to early exposures. Our findings may improve estimates of age-specific risk and VE in similarly vaccinated populations and thus improve forecasting and vaccination strategies to combat seasonal influenza.

SUBMITTER: Arevalo P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7367686 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza A cases.

Arevalo Philip P McLean Huong Q HQ Belongia Edward A EA Cobey Sarah S

eLife 20200707

Seasonal variation in the age distribution of influenza A cases suggests that factors other than age shape susceptibility to medically attended infection. We ask whether these differences can be partly explained by protection conferred by childhood influenza infection, which has lasting impacts on immune responses to influenza and protection against new influenza A subtypes (phenomena known as original antigenic sin and immune imprinting). Fitting a statistical model to data from studies of infl ...[more]

PMID: 32633233

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Project description:ImportanceCardiovascular deaths and influenza epidemics peak during winter in temperate regions.ObjectivesTo quantify the temporal association between population increases in seasonal influenza infections and mortality due to cardiovascular causes and to test if influenza incidence indicators are predictive of cardiovascular mortality during the influenza season.Design, setting, and participantsTime-series analysis of vital statistics records and emergency department visits in New York City, among cardiovascular deaths that occurred during influenza seasons between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2012. The 2009 novel influenza A(H1N1) pandemic period was excluded from temporal analyses.ExposuresEmergency department visits for influenza-like illness, grouped by age (≥0 years and ≥65 years) and scaled by laboratory surveillance data for viral types and subtypes, in the previous 28 days.Main outcomes and measuresMortality due to cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and myocardial infarction.ResultsAmong adults 65 years and older, who accounted for 83.0% (73 363 deaths) of nonpandemic cardiovascular mortality during influenza seasons, seasonal average influenza incidence was correlated year to year with excess cardiovascular mortality (Pearson correlation coefficients ≥0.75, P ≤ .05 for 4 different influenza indicators). In daily time-series analyses using 4 different influenza metrics, interquartile range increases in influenza incidence during the previous 21 days were associated with an increase between 2.3% (95% CI, 0.7%-3.9%) and 6.3% (95% CI, 3.7%-8.9%) for cardiovascular disease mortality and between 2.4% (95% CI, 1.1%-3.6%) and 6.9% (95% CI, 4.0%-9.9%) for ischemic heart disease mortality among adults 65 years and older. The associations were most acute and strongest for myocardial infarction mortality, with each interquartile range increase in influenza incidence during the previous 14 days associated with mortality increases between 5.8% (95% CI, 2.5%-9.1%) and 13.1% (95% CI, 5.3%-20.9%). Out-of-sample prediction of cardiovascular mortality among adults 65 years and older during the 2009-2010 influenza season yielded average estimates with 94.0% accuracy using 4 different influenza metrics.Conclusions and relevanceEmergency department visits for influenza-like illness were associated with and predictive of cardiovascular disease mortality. Retrospective estimation of influenza-attributable cardiovascular mortality burden combined with accurate and reliable influenza forecasts could predict the timing and burden of seasonal increases in cardiovascular mortality.

Project description:The 2017-2018 influenza epidemic season in Russia was characterized by a relatively low morbidity and mortality. We evaluated herd immunity prior to the 2017-2018 influenza season in hemagglutination inhibition assay, and performed characterization of influenza viruses isolated from severe or fatal influenza cases and from influenza cases in people vaccinated in the fall of 2017. During the 2017-2018 epidemic season, 87 influenza A and B viruses were isolated and viruses of the 75 influenza cases, including selected viral isolates and viruses analyzed directly from the original clinical material, were genetically characterized. The analyzed A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses belonged to clade 6B.1, B/Yamagata-like viruses belonged to clade 3, and B/Victoria-like viruses belonged to clade 1A and they were antigenically similar to the corresponding vaccine strains. A(H3N2) viruses belonged to clade 3C.2a and were difficult to characterize antigenically and the analysis indicated antigenic differences from the corresponding egg-grown vaccine strain. The next generation sequencing revealed the presence of D222/G/N polymorphism in the hemagglutinin gene in 32% of the analyzed A(H1N1)pdm09 lethal cases. This study demonstrated the importance of monitoring D222G/N polymorphism, including detection of minor viral variants with the mutations, in the hemagglutinin gene of A(H1N1)pdm09 for epidemiological surveillance. One strain of influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09 was resistant to oseltamivir and had the H275Y amino acid substitution in the NA protein. All other isolates were susceptible to NA inhibitors. Prior to the 2017-2018 epidemic season, 67.4 million people were vaccinated, which accounted for 46.6% of the country's population. Just before the epidemic season 33-47% and 24-30% of blood sera samples collected within the territory of Russia showed the presence of protective antibody titers against vaccine strains of influenza A and influenza B/Victoria-like, respectively. Mass vaccination of the population had evidently reduced the severity of the flu epidemic during the 2017-2018 influenza epidemic season in Russia.

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Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza A cases.

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Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza A cases.

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