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A Novel Prediction Model for Significant Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

ABSTRACT: Background:Preventing liver fibrosis from progressing to cirrhosis and even liver cancer is a key step in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study is aimed at constructing and validating a new nomogram for predicting significant liver fibrosis (S ? 2) in CHB patients. Methods:The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 252 CHB patients. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), decision curves, and calibration curve compared with the fibrosis 4 score (FIB-4) and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI). The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and an external set of 168 CHB patients. Results:A total of 420 CHB patients were enrolled based on liver biopsy results. Independent factors predicting significant liver fibrosis were laminin (LN), procollagen type III N-terminal peptide (PIIINP), and blood platelet count (PLT) in a multivariate analysis, and these factors were selected to construct the nomogram. The calibration curve for the probability of significant liver fibrosis showed optimal agreement between the prediction from the nomogram and actual observation. The prediction from the nomogram was more consistent with the results of liver biopsy than FIB-4 and APRI. The AUROC of the nomogram was higher than that of FIB-4 and APRI for predicting significant liver fibrosis. These results were confirmed in the validation set. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis suggested that the most net benefits were provided by the nomogram. Conclusions:We found the proposed nomogram resulted in a more accurate prediction of significant liver fibrosis in CHB patients and could provide the most net benefits. We recommend this noninvasive assessment for patients with liver fibrosis to avoid the risk of liver biopsy and earlier intervention to prevent the development of cirrhosis or liver cancer.

SUBMITTER: Chen Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7368191 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Novel Prediction Model for Significant Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

Chen Yaqiong Y Gong Jiao J Zhou Wenying W Jie Yusheng Y Li Zhaoxia Z Chong Yutian Y Hu Bo B

BioMed research international 20200708

<h4>Background</h4>Preventing liver fibrosis from progressing to cirrhosis and even liver cancer is a key step in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study is aimed at constructing and validating a new nomogram for predicting significant liver fibrosis (<i>S</i> ≥ 2) in CHB patients.<h4>Methods</h4>The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 252 CHB patients. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by the area under receiver operating ...[more]

PMID: 32695818

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Project description:Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) virus continues to be a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The diagnosis of liver fibrosis has a key role in selecting patients with CHB for antiviral treatment. However, serum biomarkers demonstrate limited diagnostic utility. The present study aimed to compare the performances of fibrosis biomarkers for diagnosing significant liver fibrosis that indicates the need for antiviral therapy in patients with CHB and to identify the most appropriate biomarker for these patients. The current study included 96 antiviral-naïve patients with CHB who underwent liver biopsy. METAVIR scoring system was used to assess liver fibrosis and necroinflammation. The diagnostic performances were evaluated of the platelet (PLT) count; the levels of hyaluronan, serum 7S domain of type 4 collagen, procollagen type III N-terminal peptide, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 1, Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) and N-terminal type III collagen propeptide (Pro-C3); the fibrosis index based on four factors; the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index; and enhanced liver fibrosis score for identifying significant liver fibrosis [?fibrosis stage 2 (F2)]. All fibrosis biomarkers, except the Pro-C3 level, correlated with the fibrosis stage. M2BPGi was better than other biomarkers for diagnosing ?F2, with the highest area under the curve of 0.902. M2BPGi demonstrated a higher diagnostic accuracy for significant fibrosis than mild/severe fibrosis or cirrhosis. However, no significant correlation was observed between the M2BPGi level and fibrosis stage in patients with CHB having significant liver necroinflammation defined as ? necroinflammatory activity 2. The M2BPGi level and PLT count were exclusively correlated with the fibrosis stage in 73 patients without significant liver necroinflammation. M2BPGi demonstrated the highest diagnostic performance for significant fibrosis in patients having significant liver fibrosis with no significant liver necroinflammation. In conclusion, the M2BPGi level can accurately diagnose significant liver fibrosis that indicates the need for antiviral therapy in patients with CHB.

Dataset Information

A Novel Prediction Model for Significant Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

Publications

A Novel Prediction Model for Significant Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

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