Global food security in the context of COVID-19: A scenario-based exploratory analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Udmale P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7374119 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:This study assesses the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on poverty, food insecurity, and diets, accounting for the complex links between the crisis and the incomes and living costs of vulnerable households. Key elements are impacts on labor supply, effects of social distancing, shifts in demand from services involving close contact, increases in the cost of logistics in food and other supply chains, and reductions in savings and investment. These are examined using IFPRI's global general equilibrium model linked to epidemiological and household models. The simulations suggest that the global recession caused by COVID-19 will be much deeper than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The increases in poverty are concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa with impacts harder in urban areas than in rural. The COVID-19-related lockdown measures explain most of the fall in output, whereas declines in savings soften the adverse impacts on food consumption. Almost 150 million people are projected to fall into extreme poverty and food insecurity. Decomposition of the results shows that approaches assuming uniform income shocks would underestimate the impact by as much as one-third, emphasizing the need for the more refined approach of this study.
| S-EPMC8251321 | biostudies-literature
Project description:During COVID-19 restrictions in spring 2020, college students experienced closed dormitories and increased unemployment and many students moved in with their families. College students were vulnerable to food insecurity pre-pandemic and this study examined how the living situations and food security status changed for Midwestern university students due to COVID-19 restrictions. An email survey administered to Iowa State University students between the ages of 18 and 30 who physically attended campus prior to its closure produced 1434 responses. Students living with a parent or guardian increased by 44% and were less likely to experience food insecurity or less likely to work. They had lower stress and ate more home-cooked meals. Students living on their own had higher rates of food insecurity, greater stress, poorer health status, higher cooking self-efficacy, and worked more hours. Seventeen percent of all students were food insecure; related factors were non-White ethnicity, lower cooking self-efficacy, undergraduate status, receipt of financial aid, employment, stress, living in the same situation as before the campus closure, and consumption of more take-out or fast food. These individuals had more barriers to food access. Knowledge of these factors provide useful information to inform future support services for this population in similar conditions.
| S-EPMC8229979 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHome food procurement (HFP) (i.e. gardening, fishing, foraging, hunting, backyard livestock and canning) have historically been important ways that people obtain food. Recently, some HFP activities have grown (e.g. gardening), while other activities (e.g. hunting) have become less common in the United States. Anecdotally, COVID-19 has sparked an increase in HFP evidenced by increased hunting licenses and shortages in seeds and canning supplies. HFP may have positive benefits for food security and diet quality, though research beyond gardening is especially limited in high-income countries.MethodsWe examine HFP activities since the COVID-19 pandemic began, and their relationship to food security and dietary quality using multivariable logit models and matching analysis with a statewide representative survey (n = 600) of residents of Vermont, United States.ResultsWe find 29% of respondent households classified as food insecure since COVID-19, and higher prevalence of food insecurity among those experiencing a negative job change since COVID-19, households earning less than $50,000 annually, Hispanic and multi-race respondents. Nearly 35% of respondents engaged in HFP activities since the COVID-19 pandemic began; the majority of those gardened, and more than half pursued HFP activities more intensely than before the pandemic or for the first time. Food insecure households were more likely to pursue HFP more intensely, including more gardening, fishing, foraging, and hunting. Respondents who were food insecure, Black, Indigenous, People of Color, those with a negative job disruption, and larger households all had greater odds of increased intensity of HFP during the COVID-19 pandemic. HFP was significantly associated with eating greater amounts of fruits and vegetables; however, this effect was only significant for food secure households.ConclusionOverall, these results suggest that HFP activities have increased since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and may be an important safety net for food insecure households. However, HFP for food insecure households does not translate into the same higher fruit and vegetable intake as found among food secure HFP households, suggesting this population may be trying to maintain intake, or that they may have potential important resource or technical assistance needs. Long-term, HFP activities may have important food security and diet quality impacts, as well as conservation implications, which should be more thoroughly explored. Regardless, the increased interest and intensity of HFP demonstrates opportunities for educational and outreach efforts.
| S-EPMC8131171 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mexico is hosting the 13th Conference of the Parts (COP-13) on the Convention on Biological Diversity. Participants will have another opportunity to "integrate biodiversity for wellbeing." Considering that food production is a major driver for the loss of biological diversity, despite the fact that ample genetic reservoirs are crucial for the persistence of agriculture in a changing world, food can be a conduit for bringing biodiversity into people's minds and government agendas. If this generation is going to "live in harmony with nature," as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets indicate, such an integration needs to be developed between the agricultural and environmental sectors throughout the world, especially as an increasingly urban civilization severs its cultural connections to food origin.
| S-EPMC5225408 | biostudies-other
Project description:Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, labor force is greatly confined by quarantine (social distancing), and limited units of labor and capital are available at the workplace. Millions of employees have lost their jobs and are facing financial hardships. Likewise, capital owners have become illiquid and possibly insolvent within months. This cycle seems to continue for other factors of production as well. Even after lifting quarantines, the global trade might take months (years) to return to its actual potential. Using the GTAP-VA model, the present study simulates the impact of the double-hit scenario of Covid-19 on the global value chains and identifies production losses in different sectors of the world economy.
| S-EPMC7499944 | biostudies-literature
Project description:International humanitarian organizations have expressed substantial concern about the potential for increases in food insecurity resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a unique panel survey of a representative sample households in Addis Ababa to study both food security and food consumption during the pandemic. In contrast to some other countries in the region, Ethiopia never went into a full lockdown severely restricting movement. Despite subjective income measures suggesting a large proportion of households have been exposed to job loss or reduced incomes, we find that relative to a survey conducted in August and September of 2019, food consumption and household dietary diversity are largely unchanged or slightly increased by August 2020. We find some changes in the composition of food consumption, but they are not related to shocks found in previous phone surveys conducted with the same households. The results therefore suggest the types of subjective questions about income typically being asked in COVID-19 phone surveys may not appropriately reflect the magnitude of such shocks. They also imply, at least indirectly, that in the aggregate food value chains have been resilient to the shock associated with the pandemic.
| S-EPMC8013419 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted food systems and economies across the United States. Public health measures, including stay-at-home orders, led to employment disruptions and food system shocks that increased barriers to food access.ObjectivesWe aimed to examine food insecurity and food access challenges in New Mexico (NM) during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsA cross-sectional study using a validated survey was conducted in NM in May and June 2020. Adults 18 y and older were recruited through convenience sampling via email, websites, and targeted social media ads from major universities, nongovernmental organizations, state agencies, and media outlets. Survey questions assessed food insecurity and food-related challenges and worry. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression examined relations between food insecurity and demographic characteristics. z Tests were used to compare the proportions of individuals who responded affirmatively to food challenge and worry questions between food-secure and food-insecure respondents.ResultsA total of 1487 residents participated in the study. Thirty percent of respondents reported experiencing food insecurity and 16% experienced very low food security since the pandemic started. Food insecurity was associated with each of 7 characteristics examined in bivariate logistic regression analyses. Multivariate logistic regression results showed that Hispanic (adjusted OR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.18, 2.44) and female (adjusted OR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.09, 2.90) respondents were more likely to experience food insecurity than non-Hispanic white and male respondents. Larger household sizes were associated with higher odds of food insecurity except for those in the lowest and highest income categories. z Tests showed that a higher proportion of food-insecure respondents experienced food-related challenges and worry than food-secure respondents.ConclusionsDisparities in food insecurity persisted during the COVID-19 pandemic and food-insecure individuals were more likely to report experiencing food-related challenges and worry. Researchers and policy makers in NM may consider continuing efforts to mitigate food access issues as the pandemic continues.
| S-EPMC8758401 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The objective of this review is to explore and discuss the concept of local food system resilience in light of the disruptions brought to those systems by the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The discussion, which focuses on low and middle income countries, considers also the other shocks and stressors that generally affect local food systems and their actors in those countries (weather-related, economic, political or social disturbances). The review of existing (mainly grey or media-based) accounts on COVID-19 suggests that, with the exception of those who lost members of their family to the virus, as per June 2020 the main impact of the pandemic derives mainly from the lockdown and mobility restrictions imposed by national/local governments, and the consequence that the subsequent loss of income and purchasing power has on people's food security, in particular the poor. The paper then uses the most prominent advances made recently in the literature on household resilience in the context of food security and humanitarian crises to identify a series of lessons that can be used to improve our understanding of food system resilience and its link to food security in the context of the COVID-19 crisis and other shocks. Those lessons include principles about the measurement of food system resilience and suggestions about the types of interventions that could potentially strengthen the abilities of actors (including policy makers) to respond more appropriately to adverse events affecting food systems in the future.
| S-EPMC7351643 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The escalating food demand by a growing and increasingly affluent global population is placing unprecedented pressure on the limited land and water resources of the planet, underpinning concerns over global food security and its sensitivity to shocks arising from environmental fluctuations, trade policies, and market volatility. Here, we use country-specific demographic records along with food production and trade data for the past 25 y to evaluate the stability and reactivity of the relationship between population dynamics and food availability. We develop a framework for the assessment of the resilience and the reactivity of the coupled population-food system and suggest that over the past two decades both its sensitivity to external perturbations and susceptibility to instability have increased.
| S-EPMC4460461 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mathematical model-based analysis has proven its potential as a critical tool in the battle against COVID-19 by enabling better understanding of the disease transmission dynamics, deeper analysis of the cost-effectiveness of various scenarios, and more accurate forecast of the trends with and without interventions. However, due to the outpouring of information and disparity between reported mathematical models, there exists a need for a more concise and unified discussion pertaining to the mathematical modeling of COVID-19 to overcome related skepticism. Towards this goal, this paper presents a review of mathematical model-based scenario analysis and interventions for COVID-19 with the main objectives of (1) including a brief overview of the existing reviews on mathematical models, (2) providing an integrated framework to unify models, (3) investigating various mitigation strategies and model parameters that reflect the effect of interventions, (4) discussing different mathematical models used to conduct scenario-based analysis, and (5) surveying active control methods used to combat COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8314871 | biostudies-literature