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Mathematical model describing CoViD-19 in Sao Paulo, Brazil - evaluating isolation as control mechanism and forecasting epidemiological scenarios of release.

ABSTRACT: In São Paulo, Brazil, the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19) was confirmed on 26 February, the first death due to CoViD-19 was registered on 16 March, and on 24 March, São Paulo implemented the isolation of persons in non-essential activities. A mathematical model was formulated based on non-linear ordinary differential equations considering young (60 years old or less) and elder (60 years old or more) subpopulations, aiming to describe the introduction and dissemination of the new coronavirus in São Paulo. This deterministic model used the data collected from São Paulo to estimate the model parameters, obtaining R0 = 6.8 for the basic reproduction number. The model also allowed to estimate that 50% of the population of São Paulo was in isolation, which permitted to describe the current epidemiological status. The goal of isolation implemented in São Paulo to control the rapid increase of the new coronavirus epidemic was partially succeeded, concluding that if isolation of at least 80% of the population had been implemented, the collapse in the health care system could be avoided. Nevertheless, the isolated persons must be released one day. Based on this model, we studied the potential epidemiological scenarios of release by varying the proportions of the release of young and elder persons. We also evaluated three different strategies of release: All isolated persons are released simultaneously, two and three releases divided in equal proportions. The better scenarios occurred when young persons are released, but maintaining elder persons isolated for a while. When compared with the epidemic without isolation, all strategies of release did not attain the goal of reducing substantially the number of hospitalisations due to severe CoViD-19. Hence, we concluded that the best decision must be postponing the beginning of the release.

SUBMITTER: Yang HM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7378372 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mathematical model describing CoViD-19 in São Paulo, Brazil - evaluating isolation as control mechanism and forecasting epidemiological scenarios of release.

Yang H M HM Lombardi Junior L P LP Castro F F M FFM Yang A C AC

Epidemiology and infection 20200720

In São Paulo, Brazil, the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19) was confirmed on 26 February, the first death due to CoViD-19 was registered on 16 March, and on 24 March, São Paulo implemented the isolation of persons in non-essential activities. A mathematical model was formulated based on non-linear ordinary differential equations considering young (60 years old or less) and elder (60 years old or more) subpopulations, aiming to describe the introduction and dissemination of the ne ...[more]

PMID: 32684175

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Project description:To estimate the prevalence of one month psychotropic drug use in São Paulo, Brazil, and to assess the gap treatment between the presence of mental disorders and psychotropic drug users.A probabilistic sample of non-institutionalized individuals from the general population of São Paulo (n = 2336; turnout: 84.5%) who were 15 years or older were interviewed by a trained research staff, applying the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 2.1 (CIDI WHO) (depression, anxiety-phobia, OCD\PTSD, alcoholism sections), and an inventory investigating psychotropic drug use during the 12-month and one-month periods immediately preceding the interview. Logistic models were fitted to investigate associations between psychotropic drug use as well as socio-demographic and clinical variables.The one month prevalence of psychotropic drug use in São Paulo was 5.89%, the most commonly used drugs were antidepressants (3.15%) and tranquilizers (2.67%). A higher consumption of psychotropic drugs (overall, antidepressants and tranquilizers) was observed among women (OR:2.42), older individuals (OR:1.04), individuals with higher levels of formal education (1.06), and individuals with a family (OR:2.29) or personal history of mental illness (OR:3.27). The main psychotropic drug prescribers were psychiatrists (41%), followed by general practitioners (30%); 60% of psychotropic drugs were obtained through a government-run dispensing program. Most individuals who obtained a positive diagnosis on the CIDI 2.1 during the previous month were not using psychotropic medication (85%). Among individuals with a diagnosis of moderate to severe depression, 67.5% were not on any pharmacological treatment.There is a change in the type of psychotropic more often used in São Paulo, from benzodiazepines to antidepressants, this event is observed in different cultures. The prevalence of use is similar to other developing countries. Most of the patients presenting a psychiatric illness in the month prior to testing were not receiving any sort of psychiatric medication. This may be explained by a failure to identify cases in primary care, which could be improved (and access to treatment could be facilitated) if professionals received more specialized training in managing cases with mental health problems.

Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19), with the fatality rate in elder (60 years old or more) being much higher than young (60 years old or less) patients, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. A mathematical model considering young and elder subpopulations under different fatality rates was formulated based on the natural history of CoViD-19 to study the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The model considered susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, mild CoViD-19, severe CoViD-19, and recovered compartments, besides compartments of isolated individuals and those who were caught by test. This model was applied to study the epidemiological scenario resulting from the adoption of quarantine (isolation or lockdown) in many countries to control the rapid propagation of CoViD-19. We chose as examples the isolation adopted in São Paulo State (Brazil) in the early phase but not at the beginning of the epidemic, and the lockdown implemented in Spain when the number of severe CoViD-19 cases was increasing rapidly. Based on the data collected from São Paulo State and Spain, the model parameters were evaluated, and we obtained a higher estimation for the basic reproduction number R0 (9.24 for São Paulo State, and 8 for Spain) compared to the currently accepted estimation of R0 around 2 using the SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered compartments) model. In comparison with the lockdown in Spain, the relatively early adoption of the isolation in São Paulo State resulted in enlarging the period of the first wave of the epidemic and delaying its peak. The model allowed to explain the flattening of the epidemic curves by quarantine when associated with the protective measures (face mask, washing hands with alcohol and gel, and social distancing) adopted by the population. The description of the epidemic under quarantine and protections can be a background to foreseen the epidemiological scenarios from the release strategies, which can help guide public health policies by decision-makers.

Dataset Information

Mathematical model describing CoViD-19 in Sao Paulo, Brazil - evaluating isolation as control mechanism and forecasting epidemiological scenarios of release.

Publications

Mathematical model describing CoViD-19 in São Paulo, Brazil - evaluating isolation as control mechanism and forecasting epidemiological scenarios of release.

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