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Mathematical modeling of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2-Evaluating the impact of isolation in Sao Paulo State (Brazil) and lockdown in Spain associated with protective measures on the epidemic of CoViD-19.

ABSTRACT: Coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19), with the fatality rate in elder (60 years old or more) being much higher than young (60 years old or less) patients, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. A mathematical model considering young and elder subpopulations under different fatality rates was formulated based on the natural history of CoViD-19 to study the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The model considered susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, mild CoViD-19, severe CoViD-19, and recovered compartments, besides compartments of isolated individuals and those who were caught by test. This model was applied to study the epidemiological scenario resulting from the adoption of quarantine (isolation or lockdown) in many countries to control the rapid propagation of CoViD-19. We chose as examples the isolation adopted in São Paulo State (Brazil) in the early phase but not at the beginning of the epidemic, and the lockdown implemented in Spain when the number of severe CoViD-19 cases was increasing rapidly. Based on the data collected from São Paulo State and Spain, the model parameters were evaluated, and we obtained a higher estimation for the basic reproduction number R0 (9.24 for São Paulo State, and 8 for Spain) compared to the currently accepted estimation of R0 around 2 using the SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered compartments) model. In comparison with the lockdown in Spain, the relatively early adoption of the isolation in São Paulo State resulted in enlarging the period of the first wave of the epidemic and delaying its peak. The model allowed to explain the flattening of the epidemic curves by quarantine when associated with the protective measures (face mask, washing hands with alcohol and gel, and social distancing) adopted by the population. The description of the epidemic under quarantine and protections can be a background to foreseen the epidemiological scenarios from the release strategies, which can help guide public health policies by decision-makers.

SUBMITTER: Yang HM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8205178 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:To estimate the prevalence of one month psychotropic drug use in São Paulo, Brazil, and to assess the gap treatment between the presence of mental disorders and psychotropic drug users.A probabilistic sample of non-institutionalized individuals from the general population of São Paulo (n = 2336; turnout: 84.5%) who were 15 years or older were interviewed by a trained research staff, applying the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 2.1 (CIDI WHO) (depression, anxiety-phobia, OCD\PTSD, alcoholism sections), and an inventory investigating psychotropic drug use during the 12-month and one-month periods immediately preceding the interview. Logistic models were fitted to investigate associations between psychotropic drug use as well as socio-demographic and clinical variables.The one month prevalence of psychotropic drug use in São Paulo was 5.89%, the most commonly used drugs were antidepressants (3.15%) and tranquilizers (2.67%). A higher consumption of psychotropic drugs (overall, antidepressants and tranquilizers) was observed among women (OR:2.42), older individuals (OR:1.04), individuals with higher levels of formal education (1.06), and individuals with a family (OR:2.29) or personal history of mental illness (OR:3.27). The main psychotropic drug prescribers were psychiatrists (41%), followed by general practitioners (30%); 60% of psychotropic drugs were obtained through a government-run dispensing program. Most individuals who obtained a positive diagnosis on the CIDI 2.1 during the previous month were not using psychotropic medication (85%). Among individuals with a diagnosis of moderate to severe depression, 67.5% were not on any pharmacological treatment.There is a change in the type of psychotropic more often used in São Paulo, from benzodiazepines to antidepressants, this event is observed in different cultures. The prevalence of use is similar to other developing countries. Most of the patients presenting a psychiatric illness in the month prior to testing were not receiving any sort of psychiatric medication. This may be explained by a failure to identify cases in primary care, which could be improved (and access to treatment could be facilitated) if professionals received more specialized training in managing cases with mental health problems.

Project description:BackgroundViolence and other traumatic events, as well as psychiatric disorders are frequent in developing countries, but there are few population studies to show the actual impact of traumatic events in the psychiatric morbidity in low and middle-income countries (LMIC).AimsTo study the relationship between traumatic events and prevalence of mental disorders in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.MethodsCross-sectional survey carried out in 2007-2008 with a probabilistic representative sample of 15- to 75-year-old residents in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview.ResultsThe sample comprised 3744 interviews. Nearly 90% of participants faced lifetime traumatic events. Lifetime prevalence of any disorders was 44% in Sao Paulo and 42.1% in Rio de Janeiro. One-year estimates were 32.5% and 31.2%. One-year prevalence of traumatic events was higher in Rio de Janeiro than Sao Paulo (35.1 vs. 21.7; p<0.001). Participants from Rio de Janeiro were less likely to have alcohol dependence (OR?=?0.55; p?=?0.027), depression (OR?=?0.6; p?=?0.006) generalized anxiety (OR?=?0.59; p?=?0.021) and post-traumatic stress disorder (OR?=?0.62; p?=?0.027). Traumatic events correlated with all diagnoses--e.g. assaultive violence with alcohol dependence (OR?=?5.7; p<0.001) and with depression (OR?=?1.7; p?=?0.001).ConclusionOur findings show that psychiatric disorders and traumatic events, especially violence, are extremely common in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, supporting the idea that neuropsychiatric disorders and external causes have become a major public health priority, as they are amongst the leading causes of burden of disease in low and middle-income countries. The comparison between the two cities regarding patterns of violence and psychiatric morbidity suggests that environmental factors may buffer the negative impacts of traumatic events. Identifying such factors might guide the implementation of interventions to improve mental health and quality of life in LMIC urban centers.

Project description:The presence of a large number of infected individuals with few or no symptoms is an important epidemiological difficulty and the main mathematical feature of COVID-19. The A-SIR model, i.e. a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model with a compartment for infected individuals with no symptoms or few symptoms was proposed by Giuseppe Gaeta, Mathematics in Engineering, 3(2): 1–39 (2020). In this paper we investigate a slightly generalized version of the same model and propose a scheme for fitting the parameters of the model to real data using the time series only of the deceased individuals. The scheme is applied to the concrete cases of Lombardy, Italy and São Paulo state, Brazil, showing different aspects of the epidemics. In both cases we see strong evidence that the adoption of social distancing measures contributed to a slower increase in the number of deceased individuals when compared to the baseline of no reduction in the infection rate. Both for Lombardy and São Paulo we show that we may have good fits to the data up to the present, but with very large differences in the future behavior. The reasons behind such disparate outcomes are the uncertainty on the value of a key parameter, the probability that an infected individual is fully symptomatic, and on the intensity of the social distancing measures adopted. This conclusion enforces the necessity of trying to determine the real number of infected individuals in a population, symptomatic or asymptomatic. Highlights • COVID-19 epidemic previsions must take into account a large class of asymptomatic cases.• Disparate outcomes in previsions are consequence of the uncertainty in the number of asymptomatic individuals.• Necessity of determining the real number of infected individuals, symptomatic or asymptomatic.• Parameters of the model fitted to real data using only time series of deceased individuals.• Social distancing measures contributed to slower increase in the number of deceased individuals.

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Mathematical modeling of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2-Evaluating the impact of isolation in Sao Paulo State (Brazil) and lockdown in Spain associated with protective measures on the epidemic of CoViD-19.

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