Modelling the incremental benefit of introducing malaria screening strategies to antenatal care in Africa.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Walker PGT
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7393377 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Modelling the incremental benefit of introducing malaria screening strategies to antenatal care in Africa.
Walker Patrick G T PGT Cairns Matt M Slater Hannah H Gutman Julie J Kayentao Kassoum K Williams John E JE Coulibaly Sheick O SO Khairallah Carole C Taylor Steve S Meshnick Steven R SR Hill Jenny J Mwapasa Victor V Kalilani-Phiri Linda L Bojang Kalifa K Kariuki Simon S Tagbor Harry H Griffin Jamie T JT Madanitsa Mwayi M Ghani Azra C H ACH Desai Meghna M Ter Kuile Feiko O FO
Nature communications 20200730 1
Plasmodium falciparum in pregnancy is a major cause of adverse pregnancy outcomes. We combine performance estimates of standard rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) from trials of intermittent screening and treatment in pregnancy (ISTp) with modelling to assess whether screening at antenatal visits improves upon current intermittent preventative therapy with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP). We estimate that RDTs in primigravidae at first antenatal visit are substantially more sensitive than in non- ...[more]
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Project description:ObjectivesA study found screening (with rapid plasma reagin (RPR)) pregnant women for maternal syphilis was cost-effective in Mwanza, Tanzania. Recently, four rapid point-of-care (POC) syphilis tests were evaluated in Mwanza, and found to have reasonable sensitivity/specificity. This analysis estimates the relative cost-effectiveness of using these POC tests in the Mwanza syphilis screening intervention.MethodsEmpirical cost and epidemiological data were used to model the potential benefit of using POC tests instead of RPR. Reductions in costs relating to training, supplies, and equipment were estimated, and any changes in impact due to test sensitivity were included. Additional modelling explored how the results vary with prevalence of past infection, misclassified RPR results, and if not all women return for treatment.ResultsThe cost-effectiveness of using POC tests is mainly dependent on their cost and sensitivity for high titre active syphilis (HTAS). Savings due to reductions in training and equipment are small. Current POC tests may save more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) than the RPR test in Mwanza, but the test cost needs to be <0.63 US dollars to be as cost-effective as RPR. However, the cost-effectiveness of the RPR test worsens by 15% if its HTAS sensitivity had been 75% instead of 86%, and by 25-65% if 20-40% of women had not returned for treatment. In such settings, POC tests could improve cost-effectiveness. Lastly, the cost-effectiveness of POC tests is affected little by the prevalence of syphilis, false RPR-positives, and past infections.DiscussionAlthough the price of most POC tests needs to be reduced to make them as cost-effective as RPR, their simplicity and limited requirements for electricity/equipment suggest their use could improve the coverage of antenatal syphilis screening in developing countries.
| S-EPMC2563909 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe WHO 2016 antenatal care (ANC) policy recommends at least eight antenatal contacts during pregnancy. This study assessed ANC8 uptake following policy implementation and explored the relationship between ANC attendance and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) coverage in sub-Saharan Africa following the rollout of the World Health Organization (WHO) 2016 ANC policy, specifically, to assess differences in IPTp uptake between women attending eight versus four ANC contacts.MethodsA secondary analysis of data from 20 sub-Saharan African countries with available Demographic Health and Malaria Indicator surveys from 2018 to 2023 was performed. The key variables were the number of ANC contacts and IPTp doses received during a participant's last completed pregnancy in the past two years. Pooled crude and multivariable logistic regression models were used to explore factors associated with attendance of at least four or eight ANC contacts as well as receipt of at least three doses of IPTp during pregnancy.ResultsOverall, only a small proportion of women (median = 3.9%) completed eight or more ANC contacts (ANC8 +). Factors significantly associated with increased odds of ANC8 + included early ANC attendance (AOR: 4.61: 95% CI 4.30-4.95), literacy (AOR: 1.20; 95% CI 1.11-1.29), and higher wealth quintile (AOR: 3.03; 95% CI 2.67-3.44). The pooled estimate across all countries showed a very slight increase in the odds of IPTp3 + among women with eight (AOR: 1.06; 95% CI 1.00-1.12) compared to those with four contacts. In all but two countries, having eight instead of four ANC contacts did not confer significantly greater odds of receiving three or more doses of IPTp (IPTp3 +), except in Ghana (AOR: 1.67; 95% CI 1.38-2.04) and Liberia (AOR: 1.43; 95% CI 1.18-1.72).ConclusionEight years after the WHO ANC policy recommendation, all countries still had sub-optimal ANC8 + coverage rates. This paper is a call to action to actualize the vision of the WHO and the global malaria community of a malaria free world. Policies to improve ANC and IPTp coverage should be operationalized with clear actionable guidance and local ownership. Study findings can be used to inform multi-level policy, programmatic, and research recommendations to optimize ANC attendance and malaria in pregnancy prevention, thus improving maternal and child health outcomes, including the reduction of malaria in pregnancy.
| S-EPMC11264419 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5-17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in 3 African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand may, however, outstrip initial supply. We sought to identify where vaccine introduction should be prioritised to maximise public health impact under a range of supply constraints using mathematical modelling.Methods and findingsUsing a mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria transmission and RTS,S vaccine impact, we estimated the clinical cases and deaths averted in children aged 0-5 years in sub-Saharan Africa under 2 scenarios for vaccine coverage (100% and realistic) and 2 scenarios for other interventions (current coverage and World Health Organization [WHO] Global Technical Strategy targets). We used a prioritisation algorithm to identify potential allocative efficiency gains from prioritising vaccine allocation among countries or administrative units to maximise cases or deaths averted. If malaria burden at introduction is similar to current levels-assuming realistic vaccine coverage and country-level prioritisation in areas with parasite prevalence >10%-we estimate that 4.3 million malaria cases (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.8-6.8 million) and 22,000 deaths (95% CrI 11,000-35,000) in children younger than 5 years could be averted annually at a dose constraint of 30 million. This decreases to 3.0 million cases (95% CrI 2.0-4.7 million) and 14,000 deaths (95% CrI 7,000-23,000) at a dose constraint of 20 million, and increases to 6.6 million cases (95% CrI 4.2-10.8 million) and 38,000 deaths (95% CrI 18,000-61,000) at a dose constraint of 60 million. At 100% vaccine coverage, these impact estimates increase to 5.2 million cases (95% CrI 3.5-8.2 million) and 27,000 deaths (95% CrI 14,000-43,000), 3.9 million cases (95% CrI 2.7-6.0 million) and 19,000 deaths (95% CrI 10,000-30,000), and 10.0 million cases (95% CrI 6.7-15.7 million) and 51,000 deaths (95% CrI 25,000-82,000), respectively. Under realistic vaccine coverage, if the vaccine is prioritised sub-nationally, 5.3 million cases (95% CrI 3.5-8.2 million) and 24,000 deaths (95% CrI 12,000-38,000) could be averted at a dose constraint of 30 million. Furthermore, sub-national prioritisation would allow introduction in almost double the number of countries compared to national prioritisation (21 versus 11). If vaccine introduction is prioritised in the 3 pilot countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi), health impact would be reduced, but this effect becomes less substantial (change of <5%) if 50 million or more doses are available. We did not account for within-country variation in vaccine coverage, and the optimisation was based on a single outcome measure, therefore this study should be used to understand overall trends rather than guide country-specific allocation.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the impact of constraints in vaccine supply on the public health impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine could be reduced by introducing the vaccine at the sub-national level and prioritising countries with the highest malaria incidence.
| S-EPMC7703928 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe WHO called for the elimination of maternal-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV and syphilis, a harmonised approach for the improvement of health outcomes for mothers and children. Testing early in pregnancy, treating seropositive pregnant women and preventing syphilis reinfection can prevent MTCT of HIV and syphilis. We assessed the health and economic outcomes of a dual testing strategy in a simulated cohort of 100 000 antenatal care patients in Malawi.MethodsWe compared four screening algorithms: (1) HIV rapid test only, (2) dual HIV and syphilis rapid tests, (3) single rapid tests for HIV and syphilis and (4) HIV rapid and syphilis laboratory tests. We calculated the expected number of adverse pregnancy outcomes, the expected costs and the expected newborn disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for each screening algorithm. The estimated costs and DALYs for each screening algorithm were assessed from a societal perspective using Markov progression models. Additionally, we conducted a Monte Carlo multiway sensitivity analysis, allowing for ranges of inputs.ResultsOur cohort decision model predicted the lowest number of adverse pregnancy outcomes in the dual HIV and syphilis rapid test strategy. Additionally, from the societal perspective, the costs of prevention and care using a dual HIV and syphilis rapid testing strategy was both the least costly ($226.92 per pregnancy) and resulted in the fewest DALYs (116 639) per 100 000 pregnancies. In the Monte Carlo simulation the dual HIV and syphilis algorithm was always cost saving and almost always reduced DALYs compared with HIV testing alone.ConclusionsThe results of the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that a dual HIV and syphilis test was cost saving compared with all other screening strategies. Updating existing prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programmes in Malawi and similar countries to include dual rapid testing for HIV and syphilis is likely to be advantageous.
| S-EPMC4956558 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The existence of excess zeros in the distribution of antenatal care (ANC) visits in Bangladesh raises the research question of whether there are two separate generating processes in taking ANC and the frequency of ANC. Thus the main objective of this study is to identify a proper count regression model for the number of ANC visits by pregnant women in Bangladesh covering the issues of overdispersion, zero-inflation, and intra-cluster correlation with an additional objective of determining risk factors for ANC use and its frequency. The data have been extracted from the nationally representative 2014 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, where 22% of the total 4493 women did not take any ANC during pregnancy. Since these zero ANC visits can be either structural or sampling zeros, two-part zero-inflated and hurdle regression models are investigated along with the standard one-part count regression models. Correlation among response values has been accounted for by incorporating cluster-specific random effects in the models. The hurdle negative binomial regression model with cluster-specific random intercepts in both the zero and the count part is found to be the best model according to various diagnostic tools including likelihood ratio and uniformity tests. The results show that women who have poor education, live in poor households, have less access to mass media, or belong to the Sylhet and Chittagong regions are less likely to use ANC and also have fewer ANC visits. Additionally, women who live in rural areas, depend on family members' decisions to take health care, and have unintended pregnancies had fewer ANC visits. The findings recommend taking both cluster-specific random effects and overdispersion and zero-inflation into account in modelling the ANC data of Bangladesh. Moreover, safe motherhood programmes still need to pay particular attention to disadvantaged and vulnerable subgroups of women.
| S-EPMC6980537 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo examine the performances of an alternative strategy to decide initiating BP-lowering drugs called Proportional Benefit (PB). It selects candidates addressing the inequity induced by the high-risk approach since it distributes the gains proportionally to the burden of disease by genders and ages.Study design and settingMild hypertensives from a Realistic Virtual Population by genders and 10-year age classes (range 35-64 years) received simulated treatment over 10 years according to the PB strategy or the 2007 ESH/ESC guidelines (ESH/ESC). Primary outcomes were the relative life-year gain (life-years gained-to-years of potential life lost ratio) and the number needed to treat to gain a life-year. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of changes introduced by the ESH/ESC guidelines appeared in 2013 on these outcomes.ResultsThe 2007 ESH/ESC relative life-year gains by ages were 2%; 10%; 14% in men, and 0%; 2%; 11% in women, this gradient being abolished by the PB (relative gain in all categories = 10%), while preserving the same overall gain in life-years. The redistribution of benefits improved the profile of residual events in younger individuals compared to the 2007 ESH/ESC guidelines. The PB strategy was more efficient (NNT = 131) than the 2013 ESH/ESC guidelines, whatever the level of evidence of the scenario adopted (NNT = 139 and NNT = 179 with the evidence-based scenario and the opinion-based scenario, respectively), although the 2007 ESH/ESC guidelines remained the most efficient strategy (NNT = 114).ConclusionThe Proportional Benefit strategy provides the first response ever proposed against the inequity of resource use when treating highest risk people. It occupies an intermediate position with regards to the efficiency expected from the application of historical and current ESH/ESC hypertension guidelines. Our approach allows adapting recommendations to the risk and resources of a particular country.
| S-EPMC4631497 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:To identify the determinants of antenatal care (ANC) utilisation in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN:Systematic review. DATA SOURCES:Databases searched were PubMed, OVID, EMBASE, CINAHL and Web of Science. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA:Primary studies reporting on determinants of ANC utilisation following multivariate analysis, conducted in sub-Saharan Africa and published in English language between 2008 and 2018. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS:A data extraction form was used to extract the following information: name of first author, year of publication, study location, study design, study subjects, sample size and determinants. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses checklist for reporting a systematic review or meta-analysis protocol was used to guide the screening and eligibility of the studies. The Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies was used to assess the quality of the studies while the Andersen framework was used to report findings. RESULTS:74 studies that met the inclusion criteria were fully assessed. Most studies identified socioeconomic status, urban residence, older/increasing age, low parity, being educated and having an educated partner, being employed, being married and Christian religion as predictors of ANC attendance and timeliness. Awareness of danger signs, timing and adequate number of antenatal visits, exposure to mass media and good attitude towards ANC utilisation made attendance and initiation of ANC in first trimester more likely. Having an unplanned pregnancy, previous pregnancy complications, poor autonomy, lack of husband's support, increased distance to health facility, not having health insurance and high cost of services negatively impacted the overall uptake, timing and frequency of antenatal visits. CONCLUSION:A variety of predisposing, enabling and need factors affect ANC utilisation in sub-Saharan Africa. Intersectoral collaboration to promote female education and empowerment, improve geographical access and strengthened implementation of ANC policies with active community participation are recommended.
| S-EPMC6797296 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundGonorrhoea is a highly prevalent sexually transmitted infection and an urgent public health concern because of increasing antibiotic resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Only ceftriaxone remains as the recommended treatment in the USA. With the prospect of new anti-gonococcal antibiotics being approved, we aimed to evaluate how to deploy a new drug to maximise its clinically useful lifespan.MethodsWe used a compartmental model of gonorrhoea transmission in a US population of men who have sex with men (MSM) to compare strategies for introducing a new antibiotic for gonorrhoea treatment. The MSM population was stratified into three sexual activity groups (low, intermediate, and high) characterised by annual rates of partner change. The four introduction strategies tested were: (1) random 50-50 allocation, where each treatment-seeking infected individual had a 50% probability of receiving either drug A (current drug; a ceftriaxone-like antibiotic) or drug B (a new antibiotic), effective at time 0; (2) combination therapy of both the current drug and the new antibiotic; (3) reserve strategy, by which the new antibiotic was held in reserve until the current therapy reached a 5% threshold prevalence of resistance; and (4) gradual switch, or the gradual introduction of the new drug until random 50-50 allocation was reached. The primary outcome of interest was the time until 5% prevalence of resistance to each of the drugs (the new drug and the current ceftriaxone-like antibiotic); sensitivity of the primary outcome to the properties of the new antibiotic, specifically the probability of resistance emergence after treatment and the fitness costs of resistance, was explored. Secondary outcomes included the time to a 1% resistance threshold for each drug, as well as population-level prevalence, mean and range annual incidence, and the cumulative number of incident gonococcal infections.FindingsUnder baseline model conditions, a 5% prevalence of resistance to each of drugs A and B was reached within 13·9 years with the reserve strategy, 18·2 years with the gradual switch strategy, 19·2 years with the random 50-50 allocation strategy, and 19·9 years with the combination therapy strategy. The reserve strategy was consistently inferior for mitigating antibiotic resistance under the parameter space explored and was increasingly outperformed by the other strategies as the probability of de novo resistance emergence decreased and as the fitness costs associated with resistance increased. Combination therapy tended to prolong the development of antibiotic resistance and minimise the number of annual gonococcal infections (under baseline model conditions, mean number of incident infections per year 178 641 [range 177 998-181 731] with combination therapy, 180 084 [178 011-184 405] with the reserve strategy).InterpretationOur study argues for rapid introduction of new anti-gonococcal antibiotics, recognising that the feasibility of each strategy must incorporate cost, safety, and other practical concerns. The analyses should be revisited once robust estimates of key parameters-ie, the likelihood of emergence of resistance and fitness costs of resistance for the new antibiotic-are available.FundingUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
| S-EPMC10865326 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Previous research suggests that dog mass vaccination campaigns can eliminate rabies locally, resulting in large human and animal life gains. Despite these demonstrated benefits, dog vaccination programs remain scarce on the African continent. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to demonstrate that engaging into vaccination campaigns is the dominant strategy for most countries even in the absence of coordinated action between them. And quantify how coordinated policy measures across countries in Africa could impact rabies incidence and associated costs. We show that coordinated dog mass vaccination between countries and PEP would lead to the elimination of dog rabies in Africa with total welfare gains of USD 9.5 billion (95% CI: 8.1 - 11.4 billion) between 2024 and 2054 (30 years). Coordinated disease control between African countries can lead to more socially and ecologically equitable outcomes by reducing the number of lost human lives to almost zero and possibly eliminating rabies.
| S-EPMC10484917 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The objective of this exploratory modelling study was to estimate the effects of second-trimester, ultrasound-based antenatal detection strategies for vasa praevia (VP) in a hypothetical cohort of pregnant women. For this, a decision-analytic tree model was developed covering four discrete detection pathways/strategies: no screening; screening targeted at women undergoing in-vitro fertilisation (IVF); screening targeted at women with low-lying placentas (LLP); screening targeted at women with velamentous cord insertion (VCI) or a bilobed or succenturiate (BL/S) placenta. Main outcome measures were the number of referrals to transvaginal sonography (TVS), diagnosed and undiagnosed cases of VP, overdetected cases of VCI, and VP-associated perinatal mortality. The greatest number of referrals to TVS occurred in the LLP-based (2,083) and VCI-based screening (1,319) pathways. These two pathways also led to the highest proportions of pregnancies diagnosed with VP (VCI-based screening: 552 [78.9% of all pregnancies]; LLP-based: 371 [53.5%]) and the lowest proportions of VP leading to perinatal death (VCI-based screening: 100 [14.2%]; LLP-based: 196 [28.0%]). In contrast, the IVF-based pathway resulted in 66 TVS referrals, 50 VP diagnoses (7.1% of all VP pregnancies), and 368 (52.6%) VP-associated perinatal deaths which was comparable to the no screening pathway (380 [54.3%]). The VCI-based pathway resulted in the greatest detection of VCI (14,238 [99.1%]), followed by the IVF-based pathway (443 [3.1%]); no VCI detection occurred in the LLP-based or no screening pathways. In conclusion, the model results suggest that a targeted LLP-based approach could detect a substantial proportion of VP cases, while avoiding VCI overdetection and requiring minimal changes to current clinical practice. High-quality data is required to explore the clinical and cost-effectiveness of this and other detection strategies further. This is necessary to provide a robust basis for future discussion about routine screening for VP.
| S-EPMC9767376 | biostudies-literature