Dataset Information

Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5-17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in 3 African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand may, however, outstrip initial supply. We sought to identify where vaccine introduction should be prioritised to maximise public health impact under a range of supply constraints using mathematical modelling. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Using a mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria transmission and RTS,S vaccine impact, we estimated the clinical cases and deaths averted in children aged 0-5 years in sub-Saharan Africa under 2 scenarios for vaccine coverage (100% and realistic) and 2 scenarios for other interventions (current coverage and World Health Organization [WHO] Global Technical Strategy targets). We used a prioritisation algorithm to identify potential allocative efficiency gains from prioritising vaccine allocation among countries or administrative units to maximise cases or deaths averted. If malaria burden at introduction is similar to current levels-assuming realistic vaccine coverage and country-level prioritisation in areas with parasite prevalence >10%-we estimate that 4.3 million malaria cases (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.8-6.8 million) and 22,000 deaths (95% CrI 11,000-35,000) in children younger than 5 years could be averted annually at a dose constraint of 30 million. This decreases to 3.0 million cases (95% CrI 2.0-4.7 million) and 14,000 deaths (95% CrI 7,000-23,000) at a dose constraint of 20 million, and increases to 6.6 million cases (95% CrI 4.2-10.8 million) and 38,000 deaths (95% CrI 18,000-61,000) at a dose constraint of 60 million. At 100% vaccine coverage, these impact estimates increase to 5.2 million cases (95% CrI 3.5-8.2 million) and 27,000 deaths (95% CrI 14,000-43,000), 3.9 million cases (95% CrI 2.7-6.0 million) and 19,000 deaths (95% CrI 10,000-30,000), and 10.0 million cases (95% CrI 6.7-15.7 million) and 51,000 deaths (95% CrI 25,000-82,000), respectively. Under realistic vaccine coverage, if the vaccine is prioritised sub-nationally, 5.3 million cases (95% CrI 3.5-8.2 million) and 24,000 deaths (95% CrI 12,000-38,000) could be averted at a dose constraint of 30 million. Furthermore, sub-national prioritisation would allow introduction in almost double the number of countries compared to national prioritisation (21 versus 11). If vaccine introduction is prioritised in the 3 pilot countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi), health impact would be reduced, but this effect becomes less substantial (change of <5%) if 50 million or more doses are available. We did not account for within-country variation in vaccine coverage, and the optimisation was based on a single outcome measure, therefore this study should be used to understand overall trends rather than guide country-specific allocation. CONCLUSIONS:These results suggest that the impact of constraints in vaccine supply on the public health impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine could be reduced by introducing the vaccine at the sub-national level and prioritising countries with the highest malaria incidence.

SUBMITTER: Hogan AB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7703928 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study.

Hogan Alexandra B AB Winskill Peter P Ghani Azra C AC

PLoS medicine 20201130 11

<h4>Background</h4>The RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5-17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in 3 African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand m ...[more]

PMID: 33253211

Similar Datasets

Project description:Adding malaria vaccination to existing interventions could help to reduce the health burden due to malaria. This study modelled the potential public health impact of the RTS,S candidate malaria vaccine in 42 malaria-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa.An individual-based Markov cohort model was constructed with three categories of malaria transmission intensity and six successive malaria immunity levels. The cycle time was 5 days. Vaccination was assumed to reduce the risk of infection, with no other effects. Vaccine efficacy was assumed to wane exponentially over time. Malaria incidence and vaccine efficacy data were taken from a Phase III trial of the RTS,S vaccine with 18 months of follow-up (NCT00866619). The model was calibrated to reproduce the malaria incidence in the control arm of the trial in each transmission category and published age distribution data. Individual-level heterogeneity in malaria exposure and vaccine protection was accounted for. Parameter uncertainty and variability were captured by using stochastic model transitions. The model followed a cohort from birth to 10 years of age without malaria vaccination, or with RTS,S malaria vaccination administered at age 6, 10 and 14 weeks or at age 6, 7-and-a-half and 9 months. Median and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for the number of clinical malaria cases, severe cases, malaria hospitalizations and malaria deaths expected to be averted by each vaccination strategy. Univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying the values of key input parameters.Vaccination assuming the coverage of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) at age 6, 10 and 14 weeks is estimated to avert over five million clinical malaria cases, 119,000 severe malaria cases, 98,600 malaria hospitalizations and 31,000 malaria deaths in the 42 countries over the 10-year period. Vaccination at age 6, 7-and-a-half and 9 months with 75% of DTP3 coverage is estimated to avert almost 12.5 million clinical malaria cases, 250,000 severe malaria cases, 208,000 malaria hospitalizations and 65,400 malaria deaths in the 42 countries. Univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that for both vaccination strategies, the parameters with the largest impact on the malaria mortality estimates were waning of vaccine efficacy and malaria case-fatality rate.Addition of RTS,S malaria vaccination to existing malaria interventions is estimated to reduce substantially the incidence of clinical malaria, severe malaria, malaria hospitalizations and malaria deaths across 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Project description:BackgroundThe Malaria Vaccine Implementation Program, coordinated by the World Health Organization, intended to initiate the roll-out of the RTS, S/AS01 malaria vaccine in 3 sub-Saharan African countries in 2018. With sub-optimal implementation, the effectiveness of this vaccine in routine clinical use could be significantly lower than its measured efficacy in randomized trials. This study had as objectives to systematically review and summarize published studies addressing the challenges faced during the implementation phase of malaria vaccination programs and randomized trials conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. The review also sought to report proposed solutions to the challenges identified.MethodThis was a systematic review of studies published between 1947 and 2017. Medline, Embase and the Cochrane library databases were searched. Of the 365 studies retrieved, 8 eligible studies reported on challenges of implementing a malaria vaccine in sub-Saharan Africa and possible solutions to these challenges. Data were abstracted from the eligible studies and a qualitative synthesis was done.ResultsThe 8 studies included in the review had a total of 6189 participants and used a variety of methodologies (3 qualitative, 1 quantitative, 3 mixed method studies and 1 clinical trial review). There was an overall positive acceptance towards the new malaria vaccine (n = 6/8 studies), with a mean acceptance rate of 86.1% (95% CI: 62.0-110.2, n = 2). The main challenges to vaccine receptivity were: inadequate community engagement due to lack of information about the vaccine (n = 6), fear of the vaccine's side effects (n = 5), inefficient delivery of vaccination services to children (n = 4), and sub-optimal quality of the health services (n = 3). Main themes identified from the proposed solutions consisted of the following: using dynamic communication models and trusted sources for delivering vaccine-related health information to the communities (n = 6), community engagement at both national and district level (n = 6), implementing the new vaccine services alongside the existing health services already delivered (n = 6).Conclusion/recommendationsEffective implementation of the malaria vaccine program requires careful consideration of the socio-cultural context of each community. The RTS, S/AS01 malaria vaccine acceptance and uptake may be significantly enhanced if caregivers' perceptions about vaccines and their importance are adequately fine-tuned. In order to achieve these, community participation and the provision of adequate information in an acceptable form via reliable communication channels seem to be imperative.

Project description:BackgroundRTS,S/AS01 is the first vaccine against malaria to undergo pilot implementation, beginning in 2019 and vaccinating 360,000 children per year in Malawi, Ghana, and Kenya. The four-dose vaccine is given as a primary three-dose series with a fourth dose given approximately 18 months later. The efficacy of RTS,S/AS01 was variable among the 11 sites participating in the 2009-2014 phase III trial (MALARIA-055, NCT00866619), possibly due to differences in transmission intensity. However, a within-site examination of environmental factors related to transmission intensity and their impact on vaccine efficacy has yet to be conducted.MethodsWe implemented the phase III RTS,S/AS01 trial at the Malawi site, which enrolled 1578 infants (6-12 weeks) and children (5-17 months) living in the Lilongwe District in Central Malawi and followed them for 3 years between 2009 and 2014. A global positioning system survey and an ecological questionnaire were conducted to collect participant household locations and characteristics, while additional data on background malaria prevalence were obtained from a concurrent Malaria Transmission Intensity (MTI) survey. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess whether the efficacy of the vaccine varied by estimated background malaria prevalence, household roof type, or amount of nearby vegetation.ResultsVaccine efficacy did not significantly vary by estimated malaria prevalence or by roof type. However, increased vegetation cover was associated with an increase in the efficacy of the three-dose primary RTS,S/AS01 series in the 18 months before the fourth dose and a decrease in the efficacy of the primary vaccine series in the second 18 months following, if the fourth dose was not given. Vegetation cover did not alter the efficacy of the fourth dose in a statistically or practically significant manner.ConclusionsVegetation coverage in this study site might be a proxy for nearness to rivers or branching, shallow wetlands called "dambos" which could serve as breeding sites for mosquitoes. We observed statistically significant modification of the efficacy of RTS,S/AS01 by forest cover, suggesting that initial vaccine efficacy and the importance of the fourth dose varies based on ecological context.Trial registrationEfficacy of GSK Biologicals' Candidate Malaria Vaccine (257049) Against Malaria Disease Caused by P. falciparum Infection in Infants and Children in Africa. NCT00866619 prospectively registered 20 March 2009.

Project description:BackgroundThe candidate malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS01 is being evaluated in order to inform a decision regarding its inclusion in routine vaccination schedules.MethodsWe conducted 7 years of follow-up in children who had been randomly assigned, at 5 to 17 months of age, to receive three doses of either the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine or a rabies (control) vaccine. The end point was clinical malaria (temperature of ≥37.5°C and infection with Plasmodium falciparum of >2500 parasites per cubic millimeter). In an analysis that was not prespecified, the malaria exposure of each child was estimated with the use of information on the prevalence of malaria among residents within a 1-km radius of the child's home. Vaccine efficacy was defined as 1 minus the hazard ratio or the incidence-rate ratio, multiplied by 100, in the RTS,S/AS01 group versus the control group.ResultsOver 7 years of follow-up, we identified 1002 episodes of clinical malaria among 223 children randomly assigned to the RTS,S/AS01 group and 992 episodes among 224 children randomly assigned to the control group. The vaccine efficacy, as assessed by negative binomial regression, was 4.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], -17.0 to 21.9; P=0.66) in the intention-to-treat analysis and 7.0% (95% CI, -14.5 to 24.6; P=0.52) in the per-protocol analysis. Vaccine efficacy waned over time (P=0.006 for the interaction between vaccination and time), including negative efficacy during the fifth year among children with higher-than-average exposure to malaria parasites (intention-to-treat analysis: -43.5%; 95% CI, -100.3 to -2.8 [P=0.03]; per-protocol analysis: -56.8%; 95% CI, -118.7 to -12.3 [P=0.008]).ConclusionsA three-dose vaccination with RTS,S/AS01 was initially protective against clinical malaria, but this result was offset by rebound in later years in areas with higher-than-average exposure to malaria parasites. (Funded by the PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00872963.).

Project description:A workshop on implementation strategies for the introduction of the RTS,S/AS01 (RTS,S) malaria vaccine in countries with areas of highly seasonal transmission, was held as a hybrid meeting in Dakar, Senegal, and online, 23-25 January 2023. Delegates from Expanded Programmes on Immunization (EPI) and National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCPs) from 13 African countries, and representatives from key stakeholders participated. RTS,S is the first malaria vaccine to be recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The recommendation followed pilot implementation of the vaccine in Ghana, Kenya and Malawi, which showed that introduction of the vaccine was highly effective at scale, and was associated with a 30% reduction in hospital admissions with severe malaria in age groups eligible to have received the vaccine and no evidence of the safety signals that had been observed in the phase 3 trial. Clinical trials in Mali and Burkina Faso, showed that in children receiving Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC), providing the vaccine just prior to high transmission seasons, matching the period of highest efficacy to the peak transmission season, resulted in substantial reduction in the incidence of clinical malaria and of severe malaria. While SMC has been successfully scaled-up despite the challenges of delivery, there is no established platform for seasonal vaccine delivery and no real-world experience. The objectives of this workshop were, therefore, to share experiences from countries that have introduced the RTS,S vaccine in routine child vaccination programmes, with SMC-implementing countries as they consider malaria vaccine introduction, and to explore implementation strategies in countries with seasonal transmission and where EPI coverage may be low especially in the second year of life. Practical implementation challenges, lessons learned for vaccine introduction, and research questions, towards facilitating the introduction of the RTS,S (and other malaria vaccines) in countries with seasonal malaria transmission were discussed.

Dataset Information

Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study.

Publications

Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets