Dataset Information

Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990-2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Purpose:China has a heavy cancer burden. We aimed to quantitatively estimate the secular trend of cancer mortality and incidence in China. Methods:We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized rates of 29 cancer groups (from 1990 to 2017) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2017. We estimated rates of major cancer types for annual percent change by Joinpoint regression, and for age, period, and cohort effect by an age-period-cohort model. Results:In 2017, breast cancer had the highest incidence rate in females. Lung cancer had the highest mortality and incidence rates in males. Although the age-standardized incidence rate of prostate cancer ranked second highest in males, it increased by 112% from 1990 to 2017. Individuals aged over 50 years were at high risk of developing cancer, and the number of deaths at this age accounted for over 89% of all cancers in all age groups. When compared with the global average level, the age-standardized mortality and incidence rates of both liver and esophageal cancers were 2.1 times higher in China, and stomach, lung and nasopharyngeal cancers in China also had high levels (more than 1.5 times higher). During 1990-2017, most of the 29 cancers exhibited an increasing incidence trend, and Joinpoint regression demonstrated increasing mortality of some major cancers. The period effect indicated that the risk of mortality and incidence due to the main cancers generally increased during 1992-2017. Conclusion:Trend analysis provided information on the effects of prevention strategies and targeted interventions on the occurrence of different cancers. Etiological studies need to be conducted on some major cancers in the Chinese population.

SUBMITTER: Liu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7398884 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990-2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Liu Xiaoxue X Zhou Maigeng M Wang Fang F Mubarik Sumaira S Wang Yafeng Y Meng Runtang R Shi Fang F Wen Haoyu H Yu Chuanhua C

Cancer management and research 20200723

<h4>Purpose</h4>China has a heavy cancer burden. We aimed to quantitatively estimate the secular trend of cancer mortality and incidence in China.<h4>Methods</h4>We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized rates of 29 cancer groups (from 1990 to 2017) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2017. We estimated rates of major cancer types for annual percent change by Joinpoint regression, and for age, period, and cohort effect by an age-period-cohort model.<h4>Results</h4>In 2 ...[more]

PMID: 32801868

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundThe number of individuals with dementia is increasing, which negatively affects families, communities, and health care systems worldwide. The changes in the incidence of and mortality due to Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia at the national level in China have remained unknown over the past three decades.MethodsFollowing the general analytical strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, the age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality rates for dementia in China were analyzed. Trends in the incidence of and mortality due to dementia from 1990 to 2019 were assessed by joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, period and cohort on the incidence of and mortality due to dementia were estimated by an age-period-cohort model.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 population were 103.83 (95% UI, 87.93-118.87) and 23.32 (95% UI, 5.66-61.31), respectively, for dementia in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, a significant average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the age-standardized incidence rate was observed in both males [0.49% (95% CI, 0.43-0.55%)] and females [0.31% (95% CI, 0.24-0.38%)], and the age-standardized mortality rate significantly increased in males [0.42% (95% CI, 0.31-0.53%)]. The population aged 55-59 years had the highest AAPC in the incidence of dementia [0.87% (95% CI, 0.81-0.93%)]. The age effect showed that the relative risks (RRs) of incident dementia and dementia-associated mortality increased with age among males and females, and individuals aged 60 years and older had significantly higher RRs. The RR of incident dementia increased with time, and the RR started to substantially increase in 2009. The cohort effect showed that the incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts.ConclusionAlzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia continue to become more common among males and females in China, and the associated mortality rate in males significantly increased from 1990 to 2019. Early interventions should be implemented to reduce the burden of dementia on individuals at high risk in China.

Project description:Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight changes.

Project description:Background and aimsCancer will soon become the leading cause of death in every country in the twenty-first century. This study aimed to analyze the mortality and morbidity of 29 types of cancer in 204 countries or regions from 1990 to 2019 to guide global cancer prevention and control.MethodsDetailed information for 29 cancer groups was collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of the 29 cancer groups were calculated based on sex, age, region, and country. In addition, separate analyses were performed for major cancer types.ResultsIn 2019, more than 10 million people died from cancer, which was approximately twice the number in 1990. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers collectively showed the highest death rate, and the ASDR of pancreatic cancer increased by 24%, which was cancer with the highest case fatality rate (CFR). The global cancer ASIR showed an increasing trend, with testicular cancer, thyroid cancer, and malignant skin melanoma showing a significant increase. The ASDR and ASIR of cancer in males were about 1.5 times higher than that in females. Individuals over 50 years had the highest risk of developing cancer, with incidences and deaths in this age group accounting for more than 85% of cancers in all age groups. Asia has the heaviest cancer burden due to its high population density, with esophageal cancer in this region accounting for 53% of the total fatalities related to this type of cancer in the world. In addition, the mortality and morbidity of most cancers increased with the increase in the development or socio-demographic index (SDI) in the SDI regions based on the World Bank's Human Development Index (HDI), with cancer characteristics varying in the different countries globally.ConclusionsThe global cancer burden continues to increase, with substantial mortality and morbidity differences among the different regions, ages, countries, gender, and cancer types. Effective and locally tailored cancer prevention and control measures are essential in reducing the global cancer burden in the future.

Project description:ImportanceCancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.ObjectiveTo describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.Evidence reviewWe used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.FindingsIn 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).Conclusions and relevanceThe national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Project description:Objective:Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in China, and contriving a long-term forecast is a useful aid for better launching prevention initiatives. Regrettably, such a forecasting method with robust and accurate performance is still lacking. Here, we aim to investigate its potential of the error-trend-seasonal (ETS) framework through a series of comparative experiments to analyze and forecast its secular epidemic seasonality and trends of TB incidence in China. Methods:We collected the TB incidence data from January 1997 to August 2019, and then partitioning the data into eight different training and testing subsamples. Thereafter, we constructed the ETS and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models based on the training subsamples, and multiple performance indices including the mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-squared error, and mean error rate were adopted to assess their simulation and projection effects. Results:In the light of the above performance measures, the ETS models provided a pronounced improvement for the long-term seasonality and trend forecasting in TB incidence rate over the SARIMA models, be it in various training or testing subsets apart from the 48-step ahead forecasting. The descriptive results to the data revealed that TB incidence showed notable seasonal characteristics with predominant peaks of spring and early summer and began to be plunging at on average 3.722% per year since 2008. However, this rate reduced to 2.613% per year since 2015 and furthermore such a trend would be predicted to continue in years ahead. Conclusion:The ETS framework has the ability to conduct long-term forecasting for TB incidence, which may be beneficial for the long-term planning of the TB prevention and control. Additionally, considering the predicted dropping rate of TB morbidity, more particular strategies should be formulated to dramatically accelerate progress towards the goals of the End TB Strategy.

Dataset Information

Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990-2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Publications

Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990-2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure