Dataset Information

A rapidly increasing trend of thyroid cancer incidence in selected East Asian countries: Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analyses.

ABSTRACT: Background:This study described the incidence and mortality trends and analyzed age-period-cohort effects on incidences in China, Japan, and Korea. Methods:Data were extracted from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series and the World Health Organization Cancer Mortality Database, and the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates by Segi's world population were calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate the time trend of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and the age-period-cohort model with intrinsic estimator was applied for estimating the effects of age, period, and cohort on thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in individuals between 20 and 84 years of age. Results:An increasing trend in TC incidence rates was observed among males from China (10.3%), Japan (4.7%), and Korea (20.8%) and among females from China (9.4%), Japan (3.5%), and Korea (20.5%). TC incidence rates in females were much higher than those in males. A downward trend of TC mortality rates was observed, especially in both sexes of Japan and Chinese females. The slope of the age effect curve peaked at an earlier age in females than males in Japan and Korea. A strong period effect and remarkedly increasing rate ratios were observed in all regions and for both sexes. The cohort effect had a declining tendency on TC incidence in males and females in these areas. Conclusions:The rapidly upward incidence trend and strong period effect suggest that overdiagnosis caused by higher diagnostic intensity might be an explanation for the upward trend, and some environmental risk factor exposures are also not excluded. In addition, the discrepant trends of TC incidence and mortality reveal the need to identify the few high-risk patients who needed further treatment from those patients who may not need treatment.

SUBMITTER: Li R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7475344 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A rapidly increasing trend of thyroid cancer incidence in selected East Asian countries: Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analyses.

Li Runhua R Wang Youqing Y Du Lingbin L

Gland surgery 20200801 4

<h4>Background</h4>This study described the incidence and mortality trends and analyzed age-period-cohort effects on incidences in China, Japan, and Korea.<h4>Methods</h4>Data were extracted from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series and the World Health Organization Cancer Mortality Database, and the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates by Segi's world population were calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate the time trend of age-standardized incidence a ...[more]

PMID: 32953606

Similar Datasets

Project description:Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight changes.

Project description:BackgroundThe burden of gout is increasing worldwide, which places a heavy burden on society and healthcare systems. This study investigates the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the gout prevalence from 1990 to 2019 in China, compares these effects by gender and then predicts the future burden of gout over the next decade.MethodsThe data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019. Joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) in gout prevalence, and the age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. ARIMA model was extended to predict the gout epidemic in 2020-2029.ResultsIn 2019, there were 16.2 million cases of gout in China, with an age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 12.3‰ and 3.9‰ in men and women, respectively. During 1990-2019, the ASPR of gout was increasing significantly, with an average APC of 0.9%. The periods of 2014-2017 and 2001-2005 were "joinpoint" for men and women (APC: 6.3 and 5.6%). The age-period-cohort analyses revealed that the relative risk (RR) of developing gout increased with age, peaking at 70-74 years in men (RRage(70-74) = 162.9) and 75-79 years in women (RRage(75-79)=142.3). The period effect trended upward, with a more rapid increase in women (RRperiod(2019) = 2.31) than men (RRperiod(2019) = 2.23). The cohort effect generally peaked in the earlier cohort born in 1905-1909 for both sexes. Gout prevalence showed a strong positive correlation with the consumption of meat and aquatic products (rmeat = 0.966, raquaticproducts = 0.953). Within 2029, the ASPR of gout was projected to be 11.7‰ and 4.0‰ in men and women, respectively.ConclusionThe prevalence of gout is increasing at an alarming rate in China; thus, it is necessary to provide targeted health education, regular screening, and accessible urate-lowering therapy healthcare to prevent and protect against gout in China, particularly in older women.

Project description:BackgroundInjury is a social problem that causes health and property losses, and it is important to identify the size and trend of injury for efficient prevention and management. Therefore, this study analyzed the trends in injury mortality and hospitalization rates from 2005 to 2019 in Korea.MethodsUsing mortality data by Statistics Korea and Korea National Hospital Discharge In-depth injury survey by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), age standardized rates were calculated for death and hospitalization to analyze trends and annual changes with the joinpoint regression model. In addition, annual changes in the hospitalization rate of the transport accident and fall injuries by age group were analyzed, which are the major causes of injuries.ResultsFrom 2005 to 2019, the injury mortality rate has been on the decline, but the injury hospitalization rate has been on the rise. The annual rate of change varied depending on the injury mechanism, but the mortality rate tended to decrease or remain similar level, while the rate of hospitalization has steadily increased. In addition, by age group, injury mortality and hospitalization rates were high in the elderly. In particular, the hospitalization rate of the elderly was higher when comparing the hospitalization rate of the children in transport accidents and falls. Pedestrian transport accidents tended to decrease under the age of 15, but remained similar for those aged 65 and older, and bicycle accidents tended to increase in both groups. In addition, hospitalization rates were higher in the fall, with both groups showing a statistically significant increase in hospitalization rates caused by falls.ConclusionThis study analyzed the trend of injury mortality and hospitalization and found that transport accidents and falls may vary depending on the means or age of the accident. Since injury is a big social problem that is a burden of disease, safety education and legal sanctions for injury prevention should be further improved in the future, especially by prioritizing vulnerable groups by age and detailed mechanisms of injury.

Dataset Information

A rapidly increasing trend of thyroid cancer incidence in selected East Asian countries: Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analyses.

Publications

A rapidly increasing trend of thyroid cancer incidence in selected East Asian countries: Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analyses.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets