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Individualized prediction of survival benefit from primary tumor resection for patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The impact of primary tumor resection (PTR) on the prognosis of unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients remains debatable. We aimed to develop several prognostic nomograms which could be useful in predicting whether patients might benefit from PTR or not. METHODS:Patients diagnosed as mCRC without resected metastasis were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database and randomly assigned into two groups: a training cohort (6369 patients) and a validation cohort (2774 patients). Univariate and multivariable Cox analyses were performed to identify the independent predictors and construct nomograms that could independently predict the overall survival (OS) of unresectable mCRC patients in PTR and non-PTR groups, respectively. The performance of these nomograms was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS:Based on the result of univariate and multivariable Cox analyses, two nomograms were respectively constructed to predict the 1-year OS rates of unresectable mCRC patients when receiving PTR and not. The first one included age, gender, tumor grade, proximal colon, N stage, CEA, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, histology type, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, and bone metastasis. The second nomogram included age, race, tumor grade, primary site, CEA, chemotherapy, brain metastasis, and bone metastasis. These nomograms showed favorable sensitivity with the C-index range of 0.700-0.725. The calibration curves and DCAs also exhibited adequate fit and ideal net benefits in prognosis prediction and clinical application. CONCLUSIONS:These practical prognosis nomograms could assist clinicians in making appropriate treatment decisions to effectively manage the disease.

SUBMITTER: Yang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7401291 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Individualized prediction of survival benefit from primary tumor resection for patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer.

Yang Yi Y Lu Yujie Y Jiang Wen W Zhu Jinzhou J Yan Su S

World journal of surgical oncology 20200803 1

<h4>Background</h4>The impact of primary tumor resection (PTR) on the prognosis of unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients remains debatable. We aimed to develop several prognostic nomograms which could be useful in predicting whether patients might benefit from PTR or not.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients diagnosed as mCRC without resected metastasis were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database and randomly assigned into two groups: a training cohort (636 ...[more]

PMID: 32746835

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Project description:BackgroundSurgical resection of metastatic disease in patients with initially non-resectable colorectal cancer (CRC) has improved overall survival. Intensified chemotherapy regimens have increased the probability of converting unresectable metastasis to resectable. Here, we report the result of combining intensive chemotherapy (triplet) and surgical resection of metastatic lesions in patients with metastatic CRC.Patients and methodsPatients with unresectable metastatic CRC were enrolled in phase I/II trial of triplet chemotherapy consisting of capecitabine, oxaliplatin, irinotecan, and bevacizumab. Patients were given 5-8 cycles induction chemotherapy of the above regimen followed by maintenance capecitabine and bevacizumab until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, or patient request. All patients were assessed at a multidisciplinary conference for possible surgical resection of their metastatic disease at the time of inclusion in the trial and 2 monthly intervals thereafter. Patients who underwent R0 resection of their metastatic disease received adjuvant oxaliplatin and capecitabine to complete a total of 6 months of chemotherapy.ResultsFifty-three patients were enrolled. The median age was 52 years (range 23-74), 29 (55%) were males, ECOG PS 0-1 was 13 (66%), 11 (42%) had a right-sided tumor, 29 (55%) had resection of their primary tumor, 22 (42%) had a single metastatic site, and 8 (15.1%) had a liver-limited disease. Thirteen patients (24.5%) underwent surgical resection of residual metastatic disease +/- the primary tumor with 10 (18.9%) of them were R0. The surgical group had a higher incidence of males compared to the non-surgical group (69.3% vs 47.2%, p = 0.2), equal performance status, lower median number of metastatic sites (1 vs 2, p = 0.09), higher mutant Kras (53.8% vs 34.2%, p = 0.3), and higher response rate (84.6% vs 56.2%, p = 0.3). With a median follow-up duration of 89 months, the median PFS for the whole group was 16.1 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.1-20] and the median OS was 28.2 months (95% CI 22.5-53.3). The median PFS for the surgery group was 18.9 months (95% CI 12.6-not reached) compared to 9.6 months (95% CI 7.0-18.3) for the non-surgical group, log-rank p = 0.0165. The median OS for both groups was not reached (95% CI 53.3-not reached) and 23.2 months (95% CI 17.0-28.4) respectively, log-rank p = 0.0006. Five-year PFS and OS for the surgery group were 46.2% and 67.6% respectively.ConclusionsPatients with unresectable metastatic CRC and fit for triplet chemotherapy should have the benefit of combining this intensified regimen and surgical resection of their metastatic disease if possible.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov , NCT01311050 , registered March 6, 2011, retrospectively registered.

Project description:Objective: Recently, performing locoregional surgical treatment still remains debatable in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Current study aimed to develop prognostic nomograms for predicting the long-term survival in MBC patients with or without surgical intervention, thereby assisting clinicians in making individualized choice. Methods: The training set included 5173 patients who were diagnosed with MBC in 2010-2013 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, while the validation set comprised 2924 patients diagnosed in 2014-2015. Multivariant Cox hazard model was applied to determine the independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) and breast cancer specific survival (BCSS). Then, individualized pre- and postoperative nomograms for predicting 1- or 3-year survival probabilities were constructed accordingly. Internal and external validations were conducted to determine the accuracy of these nomograms by calculating concordance index (C-index) and plotting calibration curves. Results: The survival analysis indicated that surgical management conferred improved OS and BCSS in patients with metastatic breast cancer. Age, T stage, grade, distant metastatic site, ER, PR and HER2 status, radiation, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for OS and BCSS both in surgery and non-surgery group. All these factors were subsequently incorporated into the nomogram which showed acceptable predictive capabilities with C-index range of 0.65-0.80 both in training set and external validation set. In addition, a preoperative nomogram incorporating variables capable of being determined before surgery was also built with C-index above 0.70 both in training and validation set. Conclusion: Surgical management in patients with metastatic breast cancer suggests a potential survival advantage. In addition, these well-validated pre- and postoperative nomograms may provide a useful tool to assist clinicians in treatment decision-making and in evaluating patients' long term prognosis.

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Individualized prediction of survival benefit from primary tumor resection for patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer.

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Individualized prediction of survival benefit from primary tumor resection for patients with unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer.

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