Dataset Information

Individualized Prediction of Survival Benefit From Locoregional Surgical Treatment for Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer.

ABSTRACT: Objective: Recently, performing locoregional surgical treatment still remains debatable in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Current study aimed to develop prognostic nomograms for predicting the long-term survival in MBC patients with or without surgical intervention, thereby assisting clinicians in making individualized choice. Methods: The training set included 5173 patients who were diagnosed with MBC in 2010-2013 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, while the validation set comprised 2924 patients diagnosed in 2014-2015. Multivariant Cox hazard model was applied to determine the independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) and breast cancer specific survival (BCSS). Then, individualized pre- and postoperative nomograms for predicting 1- or 3-year survival probabilities were constructed accordingly. Internal and external validations were conducted to determine the accuracy of these nomograms by calculating concordance index (C-index) and plotting calibration curves. Results: The survival analysis indicated that surgical management conferred improved OS and BCSS in patients with metastatic breast cancer. Age, T stage, grade, distant metastatic site, ER, PR and HER2 status, radiation, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for OS and BCSS both in surgery and non-surgery group. All these factors were subsequently incorporated into the nomogram which showed acceptable predictive capabilities with C-index range of 0.65-0.80 both in training set and external validation set. In addition, a preoperative nomogram incorporating variables capable of being determined before surgery was also built with C-index above 0.70 both in training and validation set. Conclusion: Surgical management in patients with metastatic breast cancer suggests a potential survival advantage. In addition, these well-validated pre- and postoperative nomograms may provide a useful tool to assist clinicians in treatment decision-making and in evaluating patients' long term prognosis.

SUBMITTER: Zheng Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7040087 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Individualized Prediction of Survival Benefit From Locoregional Surgical Treatment for Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer.

Zheng Yajuan Y Zhong Guansheng G Yu Kun K Lei Kefeng K Yang Qiong Q

Frontiers in oncology 20200218

<b>Objective:</b> Recently, performing locoregional surgical treatment still remains debatable in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Current study aimed to develop prognostic nomograms for predicting the long-term survival in MBC patients with or without surgical intervention, thereby assisting clinicians in making individualized choice. <b>Methods:</b> The training set included 5173 patients who were diagnosed with MBC in 2010-2013 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results ...[more]

PMID: 32133290

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectivesThe role of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) in malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) remains controversial and the eighth edition TNM staging scheme for MPM has not been fully verified. We aimed to develop an individualized prediction model for identifying optimal candidates for PORT among MPM patients who received surgery plus chemotherapy and externally validate the performance of the new TNM staging scheme.Materials and methodsDetailed characteristics of MPM patients during 2004-2015 were retrieved from SEER registries. Propensity score matching (PSM) was conducted to reduce disparities of baseline characteristics (age, sex, histologic type, stage, and type of surgery) between the PORT group and no-PORT group. A novel nomogram was constructed based on independent prognosticators identified by multivariate Cox regression model. The discriminatory performance and degree of calibration were evaluated. We stratified patients into different risk groups according to nomogram total scores and estimated the survival benefit of PORT in different subgroups in order to identify the optimal candidates.ResultsWe identified 596 MPM patients, among which 190 patients (31.9%) received PORT. PORT conferred significant survival benefit in the unmatched population, while there was no significant survival difference favoring PORT in the matched population. The C-index of the new TNM staging scheme was closed to 0.5, which represented a poor discriminatory ability. A novel nomogram was constructed based on clinicopathological factors, including age, sex, histology, and N stage. We stratified patients into three risk groups. Subgroup analyses indicated that PORT was beneficial for high-risk group (p = 0.003) rather than low-risk group (p = 0.965) and intermediate-risk group (p = 0.661).ConclusionWe established a novel predictive model, which could make individualized prediction of survival benefit of PORT for MPM and could compensate for weakness in TNM staging system.

Project description:BackgroundThere is a significant survival difference and lack of effective treatment among breast cancer patients with liver metastasis. This present study aimed to construct a novel prognostic score for predicting the prognosis and locoregional treatment benefit of de novo metastatic breast cancer with liver metastasis (BCLM).MethodsIn total, 2,398 eligible patients between 2010 and 2016 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. They were assigned to the training set including 1,662 patients (2010-2014) and validation set comprising 736 patients (2015-2016) depending on the time of diagnosis. The prognostic score was based on regression coefficients in the multivariate Cox regression analysis. And then, patients were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups by the prognostic score. The discrimination and calibration of prognostic score were evaluated using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis and calibration curves, respectively. Subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate locoregional surgery and chemotherapy benefit in different risk groups.ResultsAge, race, insurance and marital status, T stage, pathological grade, molecular subtypes, and extrahepatic metastasis were identified as independent prognostic variables in the prognostic score. The prognostic score showed high discrimination power with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 and 0.72 and excellent agreement suggested by calibration plots in the training and validation sets, respectively. Intermediate-risk [hazard ratio (HR) 2.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.09-2.73, P<0.001] and high-risk groups (HR 4.88; 95% CI 4.13-5.76; P<0.001) had significantly worse prognosis in comparison with the low-risk group. The median overall survival (OS) in three prognostic groups were 44, 18, and 7 months, with a 3-year survival rate of 56, 23, and 7%, respectively. Apart from the high-risk group (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.56-1.10; P=0.157), the low-risk (HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.49-0.84; P=0.001) and intermediate-risk groups (HR 0.68; 95% CI 0.55-0.85; P=0.001) could benefit from the surgery of primary site, while chemotherapy improved prognosis in all risk groups.ConclusionsA prognostic score was developed to accurately predict the prognosis of de novo BCLM patients. Moreover, it may be useful for further subdividing them into different risk groups and helping guide clinicians in treatment decisions.

Project description:BackgroundSurgical resection of metastatic disease in patients with initially non-resectable colorectal cancer (CRC) has improved overall survival. Intensified chemotherapy regimens have increased the probability of converting unresectable metastasis to resectable. Here, we report the result of combining intensive chemotherapy (triplet) and surgical resection of metastatic lesions in patients with metastatic CRC.Patients and methodsPatients with unresectable metastatic CRC were enrolled in phase I/II trial of triplet chemotherapy consisting of capecitabine, oxaliplatin, irinotecan, and bevacizumab. Patients were given 5-8 cycles induction chemotherapy of the above regimen followed by maintenance capecitabine and bevacizumab until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, or patient request. All patients were assessed at a multidisciplinary conference for possible surgical resection of their metastatic disease at the time of inclusion in the trial and 2 monthly intervals thereafter. Patients who underwent R0 resection of their metastatic disease received adjuvant oxaliplatin and capecitabine to complete a total of 6 months of chemotherapy.ResultsFifty-three patients were enrolled. The median age was 52 years (range 23-74), 29 (55%) were males, ECOG PS 0-1 was 13 (66%), 11 (42%) had a right-sided tumor, 29 (55%) had resection of their primary tumor, 22 (42%) had a single metastatic site, and 8 (15.1%) had a liver-limited disease. Thirteen patients (24.5%) underwent surgical resection of residual metastatic disease +/- the primary tumor with 10 (18.9%) of them were R0. The surgical group had a higher incidence of males compared to the non-surgical group (69.3% vs 47.2%, p = 0.2), equal performance status, lower median number of metastatic sites (1 vs 2, p = 0.09), higher mutant Kras (53.8% vs 34.2%, p = 0.3), and higher response rate (84.6% vs 56.2%, p = 0.3). With a median follow-up duration of 89 months, the median PFS for the whole group was 16.1 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.1-20] and the median OS was 28.2 months (95% CI 22.5-53.3). The median PFS for the surgery group was 18.9 months (95% CI 12.6-not reached) compared to 9.6 months (95% CI 7.0-18.3) for the non-surgical group, log-rank p = 0.0165. The median OS for both groups was not reached (95% CI 53.3-not reached) and 23.2 months (95% CI 17.0-28.4) respectively, log-rank p = 0.0006. Five-year PFS and OS for the surgery group were 46.2% and 67.6% respectively.ConclusionsPatients with unresectable metastatic CRC and fit for triplet chemotherapy should have the benefit of combining this intensified regimen and surgical resection of their metastatic disease if possible.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov , NCT01311050 , registered March 6, 2011, retrospectively registered.

Project description:BackgroundThe impact of surgical resection of primary (PTR) on the survival of breast cancer (BC) patients with bone metastasis (BM) has been preliminarily investigated, but it remains unclear which patients are suitable for this procedure. Finally, this study aims to develop a predictive model to screen BC patients with BM who would benefit from local surgery.MethodsBC patients with BM were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2010 and 2015), and 39 patients were obtained for external validation from an Asian medical center. According to the status of local surgery, patients were divided into Surgery and Non-surgery groups. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed to reduce selection bias. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival and Cox regression analyses were conducted before and after PSM to study the survival difference between the two groups. The survival outcome and treatment modality were also investigated in patients with different metastatic patterns. The logistic regression analyses were utilized to determine significant surgery-benefit-related predictors, develop a screening nomogram and its online version, and quantify the beneficial probability of local surgery for BC patients with BM. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the area under the curves (AUC), and calibration curves were plotted to evaluate the predictive performance and calibration of this model, whereas decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess its clinical usefulness.ResultsThis study included 5,625 eligible patients, of whom 2,133 (37.92%) received surgical resection of primary lesions. K-M survival analysis and Cox regression analysis demonstrated that local surgery was independently associated with better survival. Surgery provided significant survival benefits in most subgroups and metastatic patterns. After PSM, patients who received surgery had a longer survival time (OS: 46 months vs. 32 months, p < 0.001; CSS: 50 months vs. 34 months, p < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis determined six significant surgery-benefit-related variables: T stage, radiotherapy, race, liver metastasis, brain metastasis, and breast subtype. These factors were combined to establish the nomogram and a web probability calculator (https://sunshine1.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/), with an AUC of 0.673 in the training cohort and an AUC of 0.640 in the validation cohort. The calibration curves exhibited excellent agreement. DCA indicated that the nomogram was clinically useful. Based on this model, surgery patients were assigned into two subsets: estimated sur-non-benefit and estimated sur-benefit. Patients in the estimated sur-benefit subset were associated with longer survival (median OS: 64 months vs. 33 months, P < 0.001). Besides, there was no difference in survival between the estimated sur-non-benefit subset and the non-surgery group.ConclusionOur study further confirmed the significance of local surgery in BC patients with BM and proposed a novel tool to identify optimal surgical candidates.

Dataset Information

Individualized Prediction of Survival Benefit From Locoregional Surgical Treatment for Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer.

Publications

Individualized Prediction of Survival Benefit From Locoregional Surgical Treatment for Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets