Dataset Information

Covid-19 Transmission Trajectories-Monitoring the Pandemic in the Worldwide Context.

ABSTRACT: The Covid-19 pandemic is developing worldwide with common dynamics but also with marked differences between regions and countries. These are not completely understood, but presumably, provide a clue to find ways to mitigate epidemics until strategies leading to its eradication become available. We describe an iteractive monitoring tool available in the internet. It enables inspection of the dynamic state of the epidemic in 187 countries using trajectories that visualize the transmission and removal rates of the epidemic and in this way bridge epi-curve tracking with modelling approaches. Examples were provided which characterize state of epidemic in different regions of the world in terms of fast and slow growing and decaying regimes and estimate associated rate factors. The basic spread of the disease is associated with transmission between two individuals every two-three days on the average. Non-pharmaceutical interventions decrease this value to up to ten days, whereas 'complete lock down' measures are required to stop the epidemic. Comparison of trajectories revealed marked differences between the countries regarding efficiency of measures taken against the epidemic. Trajectories also reveal marked country-specific recovery and death rate dynamics. The results presented refer to the pandemic state in May to July 2020 and can serve as 'working instruction' for timely monitoring using the interactive monitoring tool as a sort of 'seismometer' for the evaluation of the state of epidemic, e.g., the possible effect of measures taken in both, lock-down and lock-up directions. Comparison of trajectories between countries and regions will support developing hypotheses and models to better understand regional differences of dynamics of Covid-19.

SUBMITTER: Loeffler-Wirth H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7412525 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Covid-19 Transmission Trajectories-Monitoring the Pandemic in the Worldwide Context.

Loeffler-Wirth Henry H Schmidt Maria M Binder Hans H

Viruses 20200720 7

The Covid-19 pandemic is developing worldwide with common dynamics but also with marked differences between regions and countries. These are not completely understood, but presumably, provide a clue to find ways to mitigate epidemics until strategies leading to its eradication become available. We describe an iteractive monitoring tool available in the internet. It enables inspection of the dynamic state of the epidemic in 187 countries using trajectories that visualize the transmission and remo ...[more]

PMID: 32698418

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Project description:BackgroundPreliminary data suggest that COVID-19 has reduced access to solid organ transplantation. However, the global consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on transplantation rates and the effect on waitlisted patients have not been reported. We aimed to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on transplantation and investigate if the pandemic was associated with heterogeneous adaptation in terms of organ transplantation, with ensuing consequences for waitlisted patients.MethodsIn this population-based, observational, before-and-after study, we collected and validated nationwide cohorts of consecutive kidney, liver, lung, and heart transplants from 22 countries. Data were collected from Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2020, along with data from the same period in 2019. The analysis was done from the onset of the 100th cumulative COVID-19 case through to Dec 31, 2020. We assessed the effect of the pandemic on the worldwide organ transplantation rate and the disparity in transplant numbers within each country. We estimated the number of waitlisted patient life-years lost due to the negative effects of the pandemic. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04416256.FindingsTransplant activity in all countries studied showed an overall decrease during the pandemic. Kidney transplantation was the most affected, followed by lung, liver, and heart. We identified three organ transplant rate patterns, as follows: countries with a sharp decrease in transplantation rate with a low COVID-19-related death rate; countries with a moderate decrease in transplantation rate with a moderate COVID-19-related death rate; and countries with a slight decrease in transplantation rate despite a high COVID-19-related death rate. Temporal trends revealed a marked worldwide reduction in transplant activity during the first 3 months of the pandemic, with losses stabilising after June, 2020, but decreasing again from October to December, 2020. The overall reduction in transplants during the observation time period translated to 48 239 waitlisted patient life-years lost.InterpretationWe quantified the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on worldwide organ transplantation activity and revealed heterogeneous adaptation in terms of organ transplantation, both at national levels and within countries, with detrimental consequences for waitlisted patients. Understanding how different countries and health-care systems responded to COVID-19-related challenges could facilitate improved pandemic preparedness, notably, how to safely maintain transplant programmes, both with immediate and non-immediate life-saving potential, to prevent loss of patient life-years.FundingFrench national research agency (INSERM) ATIP Avenir and Fondation Bettencourt Schueller.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The various epidemiological indicators used to communicate the impact of COVID-19 have different strengths and limitations. METHODS:We conducted a selective literature review to identify the indicators used and to derive appropriate definitions. We calculated crude and age-adjusted indicators for selected countries. RESULTS:The proportion of deaths (case fatality proportion [CFP]; number of deaths/ total number of cases) is commonly used to estimate the severity of a disease. If the CFP is used for purposes of comparison, the existence of heterogeneity in the detection and registration of cases and deaths has to be taken into account. In the early phase of an epidemic, when case numbers rise rapidly, the CFP suffers from bias. For these reasons, variants have been proposed: the "confirmed CFP" (number of deaths/total number of confirmed cases), and the "delay-adjusted CFP," which considers the delay between infection with the disease and death from the disease. The indicator mortality (number of deaths/total population) has at first sight the advantage of being based on a defined denominator, the total population. During the outbreak of a disease, however, the cumulative deaths rise while the total population remains stable. The phase of the epidemic therefore has to be considered when using this indicator. In this context, R0 and R(t) are important indicators. R0 estimates the maximum rate of spread of a disease in a population, while R(t) describes the dynamics of the epidemic at a given time. Age-adjusted analysis of the CFP shows that the differences between countries decrease but do not dis - appear completely. If the test strategies depend on age or symptom severity, however, the bias cannot be entirely eliminated. CONCLUSION:Various indicators of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic at population level are used in daily communication. Considering the relevance of the pandemic and the importance of relevant communications, however, the strengths and the limitations of each parameter must be considered carefully.

Dataset Information

Covid-19 Transmission Trajectories-Monitoring the Pandemic in the Worldwide Context.

Publications

Covid-19 Transmission Trajectories-Monitoring the Pandemic in the Worldwide Context.

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