Dataset Information

COVID-19 Pandemic: ARIMA and Regression Model-Based Worldwide Death Cases Predictions.

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 has now taken a frightening form. As the days pass, it is becoming more and more widespread and now it has become an epidemic. The death rate, which was earlier in the hundreds, changed to thousands and then progressed to millions. If the same situation persists over time, the day is not far when the humanity of all the countries on the globe will be endangered and we yearn for breath. From January 2020 till now, many scientists, researchers and doctors have been trying to solve this complex problem so that proper arrangements can be made by the governments in the hospitals and the death rate can be reduced. The presented research article shows the estimated mortality rate by the ARIMA model and the regression model. This dataset has been collected precisely from DataHub-Novel Coronavirus 2019-Dataset from 22nd January to 29th June 2020. To show the current mortality rate of the entire subject, the correlation coefficients of attributes (MAE, MSE, RMSE and MAPE) were used, where the average absolute percentage error validated the model by 99.09%. The ARIMA model is used to generate auto_arima SARIMAX results, auto_arima residual plots, ARIMA model results, and corresponding prediction plots on the training dataset. These data indicate a continuous decline in death cases. By applying a regression model, the coefficients generated by the regression model are estimated, and the actual death cases and expected death cases are compared and analyzed. It is found that the predicted mortality rate has decreased after May 2, 2020. It will help the government and doctors prepare for the forthcoming plans. Based on short-period predictions, these methods can be used to forecast the mortality rate for a long period.

SUBMITTER: Chaurasia V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7456206 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 Pandemic: ARIMA and Regression Model-Based Worldwide Death Cases Predictions.

Chaurasia Vikas V Pal Saurabh S

SN computer science 20200829 5

COVID-19 has now taken a frightening form. As the days pass, it is becoming more and more widespread and now it has become an epidemic. The death rate, which was earlier in the hundreds, changed to thousands and then progressed to millions. If the same situation persists over time, the day is not far when the humanity of all the countries on the globe will be endangered and we yearn for breath. From January 2020 till now, many scientists, researchers and doctors have been trying to solve this co ...[more]

PMID: 33063056

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Project description:BackgroundPreliminary data suggest that COVID-19 has reduced access to solid organ transplantation. However, the global consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on transplantation rates and the effect on waitlisted patients have not been reported. We aimed to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on transplantation and investigate if the pandemic was associated with heterogeneous adaptation in terms of organ transplantation, with ensuing consequences for waitlisted patients.MethodsIn this population-based, observational, before-and-after study, we collected and validated nationwide cohorts of consecutive kidney, liver, lung, and heart transplants from 22 countries. Data were collected from Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2020, along with data from the same period in 2019. The analysis was done from the onset of the 100th cumulative COVID-19 case through to Dec 31, 2020. We assessed the effect of the pandemic on the worldwide organ transplantation rate and the disparity in transplant numbers within each country. We estimated the number of waitlisted patient life-years lost due to the negative effects of the pandemic. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04416256.FindingsTransplant activity in all countries studied showed an overall decrease during the pandemic. Kidney transplantation was the most affected, followed by lung, liver, and heart. We identified three organ transplant rate patterns, as follows: countries with a sharp decrease in transplantation rate with a low COVID-19-related death rate; countries with a moderate decrease in transplantation rate with a moderate COVID-19-related death rate; and countries with a slight decrease in transplantation rate despite a high COVID-19-related death rate. Temporal trends revealed a marked worldwide reduction in transplant activity during the first 3 months of the pandemic, with losses stabilising after June, 2020, but decreasing again from October to December, 2020. The overall reduction in transplants during the observation time period translated to 48 239 waitlisted patient life-years lost.InterpretationWe quantified the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on worldwide organ transplantation activity and revealed heterogeneous adaptation in terms of organ transplantation, both at national levels and within countries, with detrimental consequences for waitlisted patients. Understanding how different countries and health-care systems responded to COVID-19-related challenges could facilitate improved pandemic preparedness, notably, how to safely maintain transplant programmes, both with immediate and non-immediate life-saving potential, to prevent loss of patient life-years.FundingFrench national research agency (INSERM) ATIP Avenir and Fondation Bettencourt Schueller.

Dataset Information

COVID-19 Pandemic: ARIMA and Regression Model-Based Worldwide Death Cases Predictions.

Publications

COVID-19 Pandemic: ARIMA and Regression Model-Based Worldwide Death Cases Predictions.

Similar Datasets

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