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Development and validation of a model for individualized prediction of hospitalization risk in 4,536 patients with COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Coronavirus Disease 2019 is a pandemic that is straining healthcare resources, mainly hospital beds. Multiple risk factors of disease progression requiring hospitalization have been identified, but medical decision-making remains complex. OBJECTIVE:To characterize a large cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, their outcomes, develop and validate a statistical model that allows individualized prediction of future hospitalization risk for a patient newly diagnosed with COVID-19. DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study of patients with COVID-19 applying a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression algorithm to retain the most predictive features for hospitalization risk, followed by validation in a temporally distinct patient cohort. The final model was displayed as a nomogram and programmed into an online risk calculator. SETTING:One healthcare system in Ohio and Florida. PARTICIPANTS:All patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 between March 8, 2020 and June 5, 2020. Those tested before May 1 were included in the development cohort, while those tested May 1 and later comprised the validation cohort. MEASUREMENTS:Demographic, clinical, social influencers of health, exposure risk, medical co-morbidities, vaccination history, presenting symptoms, medications, and laboratory values were collected on all patients, and considered in our model development. RESULTS:4,536 patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the study period. Of those, 958 (21.1%) required hospitalization. By day 3 of hospitalization, 24% of patients were transferred to the intensive care unit, and around half of the remaining patients were discharged home. Ten patients died. Hospitalization risk was increased with older age, black race, male sex, former smoking history, diabetes, hypertension, chronic lung disease, poor socioeconomic status, shortness of breath, diarrhea, and certain medications (NSAIDs, immunosuppressive treatment). Hospitalization risk was reduced with prior flu vaccination. Model discrimination was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.900 (95% confidence interval of 0.886-0.914) in the development cohort, and 0.813 (0.786, 0.839) in the validation cohort. The scaled Brier score was 42.6% (95% CI 37.8%, 47.4%) in the development cohort and 25.6% (19.9%, 31.3%) in the validation cohort. Calibration was very good. The online risk calculator is freely available and found at https://riskcalc.org/COVID19Hospitalization/. LIMITATION:Retrospective cohort design. CONCLUSION:Our study crystallizes published risk factors of COVID-19 progression, but also provides new data on the role of social influencers of health, race, and influenza vaccination. In a context of a pandemic and limited healthcare resources, individualized outcome prediction through this nomogram or online risk calculator can facilitate complex medical decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Jehi L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7418996 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of a model for individualized prediction of hospitalization risk in 4,536 patients with COVID-19.

Jehi Lara L Ji Xinge X Milinovich Alex A Erzurum Serpil S Merlino Amy A Gordon Steve S Young James B JB Kattan Michael W MW

PloS one 20200811 8

<h4>Background</h4>Coronavirus Disease 2019 is a pandemic that is straining healthcare resources, mainly hospital beds. Multiple risk factors of disease progression requiring hospitalization have been identified, but medical decision-making remains complex.<h4>Objective</h4>To characterize a large cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, their outcomes, develop and validate a statistical model that allows individualized prediction of future hospitalization risk for a patient newly diagnose ...[more]

PMID: 32780765

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Project description:Developing an accurate and interpretable model to predict an individual's risk for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a critical step to efficiently triage testing and other scarce preventative resources. To aid in this effort, we have developed an interpretable risk calculator that utilized de-identified electronic health records (EHR) from the University of Alabama at Birmingham Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside (UAB-i2b2) COVID-19 repository under the U-BRITE framework. The generated risk scores are analogous to commonly used credit scores where higher scores indicate higher risks for COVID-19 infection. By design, these risk scores can easily be calculated in spreadsheets or even with pen and paper. To predict risk, we implemented a Credit Scorecard modeling approach on longitudinal EHR data from 7,262 patients enrolled in the UAB Health System who were evaluated and/or tested for COVID-19 between January and June 2020. In this cohort, 912 patients were positive for COVID-19. Our workflow considered the timing of symptoms and medical conditions and tested the effects by applying different variable selection techniques such as LASSO and Elastic-Net. Within the two weeks before a COVID-19 diagnosis, the most predictive features were respiratory symptoms such as cough, abnormalities of breathing, pain in the throat and chest as well as other chronic conditions including nicotine dependence and major depressive disorder. When extending the timeframe to include all medical conditions across all time, our models also uncovered several chronic conditions impacting the respiratory, cardiovascular, central nervous and urinary organ systems. The whole pipeline of data processing, risk modeling and web-based risk calculator can be applied to any EHR data following the OMOP common data format. The results can be employed to generate questionnaires to estimate COVID-19 risk for screening in building entries or to optimize hospital resources.

Project description:BackgroundThe 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created unprecedented medical challenges. There remains a need for validated risk prediction models to assess short-term mortality risk among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a 7-day and 14-day mortality risk prediction model for patients hospitalized with COVID-19.MethodsWe performed a multicenter retrospective cohort study with a separate multicenter cohort for external validation using two hospitals in New York, NY, and 9 hospitals in Massachusetts, respectively. A total of 664 patients in NY and 265 patients with COVID-19 in Massachusetts, hospitalized from March to April 2020.ResultsWe developed a risk model consisting of patient age, hypoxia severity, mean arterial pressure and presence of kidney dysfunction at hospital presentation. Multivariable regression model was based on risk factors selected from univariable and Chi-squared automatic interaction detection analyses. Validation was by receiver operating characteristic curve (discrimination) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test (calibration). In internal cross-validation, prediction of 7-day mortality had an AUC of 0.86 (95%CI 0.74-0.98; GOF p = 0.744); while 14-day had an AUC of 0.83 (95%CI 0.69-0.97; GOF p = 0.588). External validation was achieved using 265 patients from an outside cohort and confirmed 7- and 14-day mortality prediction performance with an AUC of 0.85 (95%CI 0.78-0.92; GOF p = 0.340) and 0.83 (95%CI 0.76-0.89; GOF p = 0.471) respectively, along with excellent calibration. Retrospective data collection, short follow-up time, and development in COVID-19 epicenter may limit model generalizability.ConclusionsThe COVID-AID risk tool is a well-calibrated model that demonstrates accuracy in the prediction of both 7-day and 14-day mortality risk among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. This prediction score could assist with resource utilization, patient and caregiver education, and provide a risk stratification instrument for future research trials.

Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has affected millions of individuals and caused hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide. Predicting mortality among patients with COVID-19 who present with a spectrum of complications is very difficult, hindering the prognostication and management of the disease. We aimed to develop an accurate prediction model of COVID-19 mortality using unbiased computational methods, and identify the clinical features most predictive of this outcome.MethodsIn this prediction model development and validation study, we applied machine learning techniques to clinical data from a large cohort of patients with COVID-19 treated at the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City, NY, USA, to predict mortality. We analysed patient-level data captured in the Mount Sinai Data Warehouse database for individuals with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a health system encounter between March 9 and April 6, 2020. For initial analyses, we used patient data from March 9 to April 5, and randomly assigned (80:20) the patients to the development dataset or test dataset 1 (retrospective). Patient data for those with encounters on April 6, 2020, were used in test dataset 2 (prospective). We designed prediction models based on clinical features and patient characteristics during health system encounters to predict mortality using the development dataset. We assessed the resultant models in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) score in the test datasets.FindingsUsing the development dataset (n=3841) and a systematic machine learning framework, we developed a COVID-19 mortality prediction model that showed high accuracy (AUC=0·91) when applied to test datasets of retrospective (n=961) and prospective (n=249) patients. This model was based on three clinical features: patient's age, minimum oxygen saturation over the course of their medical encounter, and type of patient encounter (inpatient vs outpatient and telehealth visits).InterpretationAn accurate and parsimonious COVID-19 mortality prediction model based on three features might have utility in clinical settings to guide the management and prognostication of patients affected by this disease. External validation of this prediction model in other populations is needed.FundingNational Institutes of Health.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a model for individualized prediction of hospitalization risk in 4,536 patients with COVID-19.

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Development and validation of a model for individualized prediction of hospitalization risk in 4,536 patients with COVID-19.

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