Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

27 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia.

ABSTRACT: We conducted a case study of NCEP CFSv2 seasonal model forecast performance over Indonesia in predicting the dry conditions in 2015 that led to severe fire, in comparison to the non-El Niño dry season conditions of 2016. Forecasts of the Drought Code (DC) component of Indonesia's Fire Danger Rating System were examined across the entire Equatorial Asia region and for the primary burning regions within it. Our results show that early warning lead times of high observed DC in September and October 2015 varied considerably for different regions. High DC over Southern Kalimantan and Southern New Guinea were predicted with 180-day lead times, whereas Southern Sumatra had lead times of up to only 60 days, which we attribute to the absence in the forecasts of an eastward decrease in Indian Ocean SSTs. This case study provides the starting point for longer-term evaluation of seasonal fire danger rating forecasts over Indonesia.

SUBMITTER: Shawki D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7427816 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Publications

Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia.

Shawki Dilshad D Field Robert D RD Tippett Michael K MK Saharjo Bambang Hero BH Albar Israr I Atmoko Dwi D Voulgarakis Apostolos A

Geophysical research letters 20170913 19

We conducted a case study of NCEP CFSv2 seasonal model forecast performance over Indonesia in predicting the dry conditions in 2015 that led to severe fire, in comparison to the non-El Niño dry season conditions of 2016. Forecasts of the Drought Code (DC) component of Indonesia's Fire Danger Rating System were examined across the entire Equatorial Asia region and for the primary burning regions within it. Our results show that early warning lead times of high observed DC in September and October ...[more]

PMID: 32803204

Similar Datasets

Rapid formation and evolution of an extreme haze episode in Northern China during winter 2015.

Project description:We investigate the rapid formation and evolutionary mechanisms of an extremely severe and persistent haze episode that occurred in northern China during winter 2015 using comprehensive ground and vertical measurements, along with receptor and dispersion model analysis. Our results indicate that the life cycle of a severe winter haze episode typically consists of four stages: (1) rapid formation initiated by sudden changes in meteorological parameters and synchronous increases in most aerosol species, (2) persistent evolution with relatively constant variations in secondary inorganic aerosols and secondary organic aerosols, (3) further evolution associated with fog processing and significantly enhanced sulfate levels, and (4) clearing due to dry, cold north-northwesterly winds. Aerosol composition showed substantial changes during the formation and evolution of the haze episode but was generally dominated by regional secondary aerosols (53-67%). Our results demonstrate the important role of regional transport, largely from the southwest but also from the east, and of coal combustion emissions for winter haze formation in Beijing. Also, we observed an important downward mixing pathway during the severe haze in 2015 that can lead to rapid increases in certain aerosol species.

| S-EPMC4886685 | biostudies-literature

Seeking natural capital projects: Forest fires, haze, and early-life exposure in Indonesia.

Project description:Natural capital will be depleted rapidly and excessively if the long-term, offsite impacts of depletion are ignored. By examining the case of tropical forest burning, we illustrate such myopia: Pursuit of short-term economic gains results in air pollution that causes long-term, irreversible health impacts. We integrate longitudinal data on prenatal exposure to the 1997 Indonesian forest fires with child nutritional outcomes and find that mean exposure to air pollution during the prenatal stage is associated with a half-SD decrease in height-for-age z score at age 17, which is robust to several statistical checks. Because adult height is associated with income, this implies a loss of 4% of average monthly wages for approximately one million Indonesian workers born during this period. To put these human capital losses in the context of policy making, we conduct social cost-benefit analyses of oil palm plantations under different scenarios for clearing land and controlling fires. We find that clearing for oil palm plantations using mechanical methods generates higher social net benefits compared with clearing using fires. Oil palm producers, however, would be unwilling to bear the higher private costs of mechanical clearing. Therefore, we need more effective fire bans, fire suppression, and moratoriums on oil palm in Indonesia to protect natural and human capital, and increase social welfare.

| S-EPMC6431162 | biostudies-literature

Long-lead Prediction of ENSO Modoki Index using Machine Learning algorithms.

Project description:The focus of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms in the long-lead prediction of El Niño (La Niña) Modoki (ENSO Modoki) index (EMI). We evaluated two widely used non-linear ML algorithms namely Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) to forecast the EMI at various lead times, viz. 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. The predictors for the EMI are identified using Kendall's tau correlation coefficient between the monthly EMI index and the monthly anomalies of the slowly varying climate variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and soil moisture content (SMC). The importance of each of the predictors is evaluated using the Supervised Principal Component Analysis (SPCA). The results indicate both SVR and RF to be capable of forecasting the phase of the EMI realistically at both 6-months and 12-months lead times though the amplitude of the EMI is underestimated for the strong events. The analysis also indicates the SVR to perform better than the RF method in forecasting the EMI.

| S-EPMC6962158 | biostudies-literature

Effect of oil palm sustainability certification on deforestation and fire in Indonesia.

Project description:Many major corporations and countries have made commitments to purchase or produce only "sustainable" palm oil, a commodity responsible for substantial tropical forest loss. Sustainability certification is the tool most used to fulfill these procurement policies, and around 20% of global palm oil production was certified by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) in 2017. However, the effect of certification on deforestation in oil palm plantations remains unclear. Here, we use a comprehensive dataset of RSPO-certified and noncertified oil palm plantations (∼188,000 km2) in Indonesia, the leading producer of palm oil, as well as annual remotely sensed metrics of tree cover loss and fire occurrence, to evaluate the impact of certification on deforestation and fire from 2001 to 2015. While forest loss and fire continued after RSPO certification, certified palm oil was associated with reduced deforestation. Certification lowered deforestation by 33% from a counterfactual of 9.8 to 6.6% y-1 Nevertheless, most plantations contained little residual forest when they received certification. As a result, by 2015, certified areas held less than 1% of forests remaining within Indonesian oil palm plantations. Moreover, certification had no causal impact on forest loss in peatlands or active fire detection rates. Broader adoption of certification in forested regions, strict requirements to avoid all peat, and routine monitoring of clearly defined forest cover loss in certified and RSPO member-held plantations appear necessary if the RSPO is to yield conservation and climate benefits from reductions in tropical deforestation.

| S-EPMC5776786 | biostudies-literature

Global seasonal prediction of fire danger.

Project description:The European Centre for Medium range weather forecast (ECMWF) on behalf of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) has recently widened the fire danger data offering in the Climate Data Store (CDS) to include a set of fire danger forecasts with lead times up to 7 months. The dataset incorporates fire danger indices for three different models developed in Canada, United States and Australia. The indices are calculated using ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System 5 (SEAS5) and verified against the relevant reanalysis of fire danger based on the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA5). The data set is made openly available for the period 1981 to 2023 and will be updated regularly providing a resource to assess the predictability of fire weather at the seasonal time scale. The data set complements the availability of seasonal forecast provided by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service in real time.A preliminary analysis shows that globally anomalous conditions for fire weather can be predicted with confidence 1 month ahead. In some regions the prediction can extend to 2 months ahead. In most situations beyond this horizon, forecasts do not show more skill than climatology. However an extended predictability window, up to 6-7 months ahead is possible when anomalous fire weather is the results of large scale phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, often conducive of extensive fire burning in regions such as Indonesia and Australia.

| S-EPMC10810953 | biostudies-literature

Social interactions lead to motility-induced phase separation in fire ants.

Project description:Collections of fire ants are a form of active matter, as the ants use their internal metabolism to self-propel. In the absence of aligning interactions, theory and simulations predict that active matter with spatially dependent motility can undergo motility-induced phase separation. However, so far in experiments, the motility effects that drive this process have come from either crowding or an external parameter. Though fire ants are social insects that communicate and cooperate in nontrivial ways, we show that the effect of their interactions can also be understood within the framework of motility-induced phase separation. In this context, the slowing down of ants when they approach each other results in an effective attraction that can lead to space-filling clusters and an eventual formation of dynamical heterogeneities. These results illustrate that motility-induced phase separation can provide a unifying framework to rationalize the behavior of a wide variety of active matter systems.

| S-EPMC9640710 | biostudies-literature

Mapping exposure to particulate pollution during severe haze episode using improved MODIS AOT-PM10 regression model with synoptic meteorology classification.

Project description:Severe smoke haze from biomass burning is frequently observed in Northern Thailand during dry months of February-April. Sparsely located monitoring stations operated in this vast mountainous region could not provide sufficient particulate matter (PM) data for exposure risk assessment. Satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) data could be used, but their reliable relationship with ground-based PM data should be first established. This study aimed to improve the regression model between PM10 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AOT with consideration of synoptic patterns to better assess the exposure risk in the area. Among four synoptic patterns, each representing the totality of meteorology governing Northern Thailand on a given day, most severe haze days belonged to pattern 2 that featured conditions of clear sky, stagnant air, and high PM10 levels. AOT-24 h PM10 regression model for pattern 2 had coefficient of determination improved to 0.51 from 0.39 of combined case. Daily exposure maps to PM10 in most severe haze period of February-April 2007 were produced for Chiangmai, the largest and most populated province in Northern Thailand. Regression model for pattern 2 was used to convert 24 h PM10 ranges of modified risk scale to corresponding AOT ranges, and the mapping was done using spatially continuous AOT values. The highest exposure risk to PM10 was shown in urban populated areas. Larger numbers of forest fire hot spots and more calm winds were observed on the days of higher exposure risk. Early warning and adequate health care plan are necessary to reduce exposure risk to future haze episodes in the area.

| S-EPMC7067214 | biostudies-literature

Fire carbon emissions over maritime southeast Asia in 2015 largest since 1997.

Project description:In September and October 2015 widespread forest and peatland fires burned over large parts of maritime southeast Asia, most notably Indonesia, releasing large amounts of terrestrially-stored carbon into the atmosphere, primarily in the form of CO2, CO and CH4. With a mean emission rate of 11.3?Tg CO2 per day during Sept-Oct 2015, emissions from these fires exceeded the fossil fuel CO2 release rate of the European Union (EU28) (8.9?Tg CO2 per day). Although seasonal fires are a frequent occurrence in the human modified landscapes found in Indonesia, the extent of the 2015 fires was greatly inflated by an extended drought period associated with a strong El Niño. We estimate carbon emissions from the 2015 fires to be the largest seen in maritime southeast Asia since those associated with the record breaking El Niño of 1997. Compared to that event, a much better constrained regional total carbon emission estimate can be made for the 2015 fires through the use of present-day satellite observations of the fire's radiative power output and atmospheric CO concentrations, processed using the modelling and assimilation framework of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and combined with unique in situ smoke measurements made on Kalimantan.

| S-EPMC4886261 | biostudies-literature

Fallout of Lead Over Paris From the 2019 Notre-Dame Cathedral Fire.

Project description:The roof and spire of Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris that caught fire and collapsed on 15 April 2019 were covered with 460 t of lead (Pb). Government reports documented Pb deposition immediately downwind of the cathedral and a twentyfold increase in airborne Pb concentrations at a distance of 50 km in the aftermath. For this study, we collected 100 samples of surface soil from tree pits, parks, and other sites in all directions within 1 km of the cathedral. Concentrations of Pb measured by X-ray fluorescence range from 30 to 9,000 mg/kg across the area, with a higher proportion of elevated concentrations to the northwest of the cathedral, in the direction of the wind prevailing during the fire. By integrating these observations with a Gaussian process regression model, we estimate that the average concentration of Pb in surface soil downwind of the cathedral is 430 (95% interval, 300-590) mg/kg, nearly double the average Pb concentration in the other directions of 240 (95% interval, 170-320) mg/kg. The difference corresponds to an integrated excess Pb inventory within a 1 km radius of 1.0 (95% interval, 0.5-1.5) t, about 0.2% of all the Pb covering the roof and spire. This is over 6 times the estimated amount of Pb deposited downwind 1-50 km from the cathedral. To what extent the concentrated fallout within 1 km documented here temporarily exposed the downwind population to Pb is difficult to confirm independently because too few soil, dust, and blood samples were collected immediately after the fire.

| S-EPMC8027784 | biostudies-literature

Evolution of long centromeres in fire ants.

Project description:BackgroundCentromeres are essential for accurate chromosome segregation, yet sequence conservation is low even among closely related species. Centromere drive predicts rapid turnover because some centromeric sequences may compete better than others during female meiosis. In addition to sequence composition, longer centromeres may have a transmission advantage.ResultsWe report the first observations of extremely long centromeres, covering on average 34 % of the chromosomes, in the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta. By comparison, cytological examination of Solenopsis geminata revealed typical small centromeric constrictions. Bioinformatics and molecular analyses identified CenSol, the major centromeric satellite DNA repeat. We found that CenSol sequences are very similar between the two species but the CenSol copy number in S. invicta is much greater than that in S. geminata. In addition, centromere expansion in S. invicta is not correlated with the duplication of CenH3. Comparative analyses revealed that several closely related fire ant species also possess long centromeres.ConclusionsOur results are consistent with a model of simple runaway centromere expansion due to centromere drive. We suggest expanded centromeres may be more prevalent in hymenopteran insects, which use haplodiploid sex determination, than previously considered.

| S-EPMC5024525 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data