Dataset Information

Long-lead Prediction of ENSO Modoki Index using Machine Learning algorithms.

ABSTRACT: The focus of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms in the long-lead prediction of El Niño (La Niña) Modoki (ENSO Modoki) index (EMI). We evaluated two widely used non-linear ML algorithms namely Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) to forecast the EMI at various lead times, viz. 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. The predictors for the EMI are identified using Kendall's tau correlation coefficient between the monthly EMI index and the monthly anomalies of the slowly varying climate variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and soil moisture content (SMC). The importance of each of the predictors is evaluated using the Supervised Principal Component Analysis (SPCA). The results indicate both SVR and RF to be capable of forecasting the phase of the EMI realistically at both 6-months and 12-months lead times though the amplitude of the EMI is underestimated for the strong events. The analysis also indicates the SVR to perform better than the RF method in forecasting the EMI.

SUBMITTER: Pal M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6962158 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Long-lead Prediction of ENSO Modoki Index using Machine Learning algorithms.

Pal Manali M Maity Rajib R Ratnam J V JV Nonaka Masami M Behera Swadhin K SK

Scientific reports 20200115 1

The focus of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms in the long-lead prediction of El Niño (La Niña) Modoki (ENSO Modoki) index (EMI). We evaluated two widely used non-linear ML algorithms namely Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) to forecast the EMI at various lead times, viz. 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. The predictors for the EMI are identified using Kendall's tau correlation coefficient between the monthly EMI index and the monthly anomalie ...[more]

PMID: 31941970

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Project description:Cyber-attacks have become one of the biggest problems of the world. They cause serious financial damages to countries and people every day. The increase in cyber-attacks also brings along cyber-crime. The key factors in the fight against crime and criminals are identifying the perpetrators of cyber-crime and understanding the methods of attack. Detecting and avoiding cyber-attacks are difficult tasks. However, researchers have recently been solving these problems by developing security models and making predictions through artificial intelligence methods. A high number of methods of crime prediction are available in the literature. On the other hand, they suffer from a deficiency in predicting cyber-crime and cyber-attack methods. This problem can be tackled by identifying an attack and the perpetrator of such attack, using actual data. The data include the type of crime, gender of perpetrator, damage and methods of attack. The data can be acquired from the applications of the persons who were exposed to cyber-attacks to the forensic units. In this paper, we analyze cyber-crimes in two different models with machine-learning methods and predict the effect of the defined features on the detection of the cyber-attack method and the perpetrator. We used eight machine-learning methods in our approach and concluded that their accuracy ratios were close. The Support Vector Machine Linear was found out to be the most successful in the cyber-attack method, with an accuracy rate of 95.02%. In the first model, we could predict the types of attacks that the victims were likely to be exposed to with a high accuracy. The Logistic Regression was the leading method in detecting attackers with an accuracy rate of 65.42%. In the second model, we predicted whether the perpetrators could be identified by comparing their characteristics. Our results have revealed that the probability of cyber-attack decreases as the education and income level of victim increases. We believe that cyber-crime units will use the proposed model. It will also facilitate the detection of cyber-attacks and make the fight against these attacks easier and more effective.

Dataset Information

Long-lead Prediction of ENSO Modoki Index using Machine Learning algorithms.

Publications

Long-lead Prediction of ENSO Modoki Index using Machine Learning algorithms.

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