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When, why and how tumour clonal diversity predicts survival.

ABSTRACT: The utility of intratumour heterogeneity as a prognostic biomarker is the subject of ongoing clinical investigation. However, the relationship between this marker and its clinical impact is mediated by an evolutionary process that is not well understood. Here, we employ a spatial computational model of tumour evolution to assess when, why and how intratumour heterogeneity can be used to forecast tumour growth rate and progression-free survival. We identify three conditions that can lead to a positive correlation between clonal diversity and subsequent growth rate: diversity is measured early in tumour development; selective sweeps are rare; and/or tumours vary in the rate at which they acquire driver mutations. Opposite conditions typically lead to negative correlation. In cohorts of tumours with diverse evolutionary parameters, we find that clonal diversity is a reliable predictor of both growth rate and progression-free survival. We thus offer explanations-grounded in evolutionary theory-for empirical findings in various cancers, including survival analyses reported in the recent TRACERx Renal study of clear-cell renal cell carcinoma. Our work informs the search for new prognostic biomarkers and contributes to the development of predictive oncology.

SUBMITTER: Noble R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7428820 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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When, why and how tumour clonal diversity predicts survival.

Noble Robert R Burley John T JT Le Sueur Cécile C Hochberg Michael E ME

Evolutionary applications 20200718 7

The utility of intratumour heterogeneity as a prognostic biomarker is the subject of ongoing clinical investigation. However, the relationship between this marker and its clinical impact is mediated by an evolutionary process that is not well understood. Here, we employ a spatial computational model of tumour evolution to assess when, why and how intratumour heterogeneity can be used to forecast tumour growth rate and progression-free survival. We identify three conditions that can lead to a pos ...[more]

PMID: 32821272

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Project description:Glioblastoma is characterized by diffuse infiltration into the surrounding tissue along white matter tracts. Identifying the invisible tumour invasion beyond focal lesion promises more effective treatment, which remains a significant challenge. It is increasingly accepted that glioblastoma could widely affect brain structure and function, and further lead to reorganization of neural connectivity. Quantifying neural connectivity in glioblastoma may provide a valuable tool for identifying tumour invasion. Here we propose an approach to systematically identify tumour invasion by quantifying the structural connectome in glioblastoma patients. We first recruit two independent prospective glioblastoma cohorts: the discovery cohort with 117 patients and validation cohort with 42 patients. Next, we use diffusion MRI of healthy subjects to construct tractography templates indicating white matter connection pathways between brain regions. Next, we construct fractional anisotropy skeletons from diffusion MRI using an improved voxel projection approach based on the tract-based spatial statistics, where the strengths of white matter connection and brain regions are estimated. To quantify the disrupted connectome, we calculate the deviation of the connectome strengths of patients from that of the age-matched healthy controls. We then categorize the disruption into regional disruptions on the basis of the relative location of connectome to focal lesions. We also characterize the topological properties of the patient connectome based on the graph theory. Finally, we investigate the clinical, cognitive and prognostic significance of connectome metrics using Pearson correlation test, mediation test and survival models. Our results show that the connectome disruptions in glioblastoma patients are widespread in the normal-appearing brain beyond focal lesions, associated with lower preoperative performance (P < 0.001), impaired cognitive function (P < 0.001) and worse survival (overall survival: hazard ratio = 1.46, P = 0.049; progression-free survival: hazard ratio = 1.49, P = 0.019). Additionally, these distant disruptions mediate the effect on topological alterations of the connectome (mediation effect: clustering coefficient -0.017, P < 0.001, characteristic path length 0.17, P = 0.008). Further, the preserved connectome in the normal-appearing brain demonstrates evidence of connectivity reorganization, where the increased neural connectivity is associated with better overall survival (log-rank P = 0.005). In conclusion, our connectome approach could reveal and quantify the glioblastoma invasion distant from the focal lesion and invisible on the conventional MRI. The structural disruptions in the normal-appearing brain were associated with the topological alteration of the brain and could indicate treatment target. Our approach promises to aid more accurate patient stratification and more precise treatment planning.

Project description:BackgroundMost cancer deaths are caused by metastases, resulting from circulating tumor cells (CTC) that detach from the primary cancer and survive in distant organs. The aim of the present study was to develop a CTC gene signature and to assess its prognostic relevance after surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).MethodsNegative depletion fluorescence activated cell sorting (FACS) was developed and validated with spiking experiments using cancer cell lines in whole human blood samples. This FACS-based method was used to enrich for CTC from the blood of 10 patients who underwent surgery for PDAC. Total RNA was isolated from 4 subgroup samples, i.e. CTC, haematological cells (G), original tumour (T), and non-tumoural pancreatic control tissue (P). After RNA quality control, samples of 6 patients were eligible for further analysis. Whole genome microarray analysis was performed after double linear amplification of RNA. 'Ingenuity Pathway Analysis' software and AmiGO were used for functional data analyses. A CTC gene signature was developed and validated with the nCounter system on expression data of 78 primary PDAC using Cox regression analysis for disease-free (DFS) and overall survival (OS).ResultsUsing stringent statistical analysis, we retained 8,152 genes to compare expression profiles of CTC vs. other subgroups, and found 1,059 genes to be differentially expressed. The pathway with the highest expression ratio in CTC was p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (p38 MAPK) signaling, known to be involved in cancer cell migration. In the p38 MAPK pathway, TGF-β1, cPLA2, and MAX were significantly upregulated. In addition, 9 other genes associated with both p38 MAPK signaling and cell motility were overexpressed in CTC. High co-expression of TGF-β1 and our cell motility panel (≥ 4 out of 9 genes for DFS and ≥ 6 out of 9 genes for OS) in primary PDAC was identified as an independent predictor of DFS (p=0.041, HR (95% CI) = 1.885 (1.025 - 3.559)) and OS (p=0.047, HR (95% CI) = 1.366 (1.004 - 1.861)).ConclusionsPancreatic CTC isolated from blood samples using FACS-based negative depletion, express a cell motility gene signature. Expression of this newly defined cell motility gene signature in the primary tumour can predict survival of patients undergoing surgical resection for pancreatic cancer.Trial registrationClinical trials.gov NCT00495924.

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When, why and how tumour clonal diversity predicts survival.

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When, why and how tumour clonal diversity predicts survival.

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