Unknown

Dataset Information

0

Vaccine optimization for COVID-19: who to vaccinate first?


ABSTRACT: A vaccine, when available, will likely become our best tool to control the current COVID-19 pandemic. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, vaccine shortages will likely occur. Using an age-stratified mathematical model paired with optimization algorithms, we determined optimal vaccine allocation for four different metrics (deaths, symptomatic infections, and maximum non-ICU and ICU hospitalizations) under many scenarios. We find that a vaccine with effectiveness ≥50% would be enough to substantially mitigate the ongoing pandemic provided that a high percentage of the population is optimally vaccinated. When minimizing deaths, we find that for low vaccine effectiveness, irrespective of vaccination coverage, it is optimal to allocate vaccine to high-risk (older) age-groups first. In contrast, for higher vaccine effectiveness, there is a switch to allocate vaccine to high-transmission (younger) age-groups first for high vaccination coverage. While there are other societal and ethical considerations, this work can provide an evidence-based rationale for vaccine prioritization.

SUBMITTER: Matrajt L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7430607 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

Similar Datasets

2022-10-14 | PXD031969 | Pride
| S-EPMC8143399 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC9866695 | biostudies-literature
| S-SCDT-EMM-2021-15227 | biostudies-other
| S-EPMC8603649 | biostudies-literature
2023-01-12 | GSE199750 | GEO
| S-EPMC7938284 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC8767903 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC9190183 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC7489926 | biostudies-literature