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BCG Vaccination and Mortality of COVID-19 across 173 Countries: An Ecological Study.

ABSTRACT: Ecological studies have suggested fewer COVID-19 morbidities and mortalities in Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-vaccinated countries than BCG-non-vaccinated countries. However, these studies obtained data during the early phase of the pandemic and did not adjust for potential confounders, including PCR-test numbers per population (PCR-tests). Currently-more than four months after declaration of the pandemic-the BCG-hypothesis needs reexamining. An ecological study was conducted by obtaining data of 61 factors in 173 countries, including BCG vaccine coverage (%), using morbidity and mortality as outcomes, obtained from open resources. 'Urban population (%)' and 'insufficient physical activity (%)' in each country was positively associated with morbidity, but not mortality, after adjustment for PCR-tests. On the other hand, recent BCG vaccine coverage (%) was negatively associated with mortality, but not morbidity, even with adjustment for percentage of the population ? 60 years of age, morbidity, PCR-tests and other factors. The results of this study generated a hypothesis that a national BCG vaccination program seems to be associated with reduced mortality of COVID-19, although this needs to be further examined and proved by randomized clinical trials.

SUBMITTER: Urashima M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7432030 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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BCG Vaccination and Mortality of COVID-19 across 173 Countries: An Ecological Study.

Urashima Mitsuyoshi M Otani Katharina K Hasegawa Yasutaka Y Akutsu Taisuke T

International journal of environmental research and public health 20200803 15

Ecological studies have suggested fewer COVID-19 morbidities and mortalities in Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-vaccinated countries than BCG-non-vaccinated countries. However, these studies obtained data during the early phase of the pandemic and did not adjust for potential confounders, including PCR-test numbers per population (PCR-tests). Currently-more than four months after declaration of the pandemic-the BCG-hypothesis needs reexamining. An ecological study was conducted by obtaining data ...[more]

PMID: 32756371

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Project description:BackgroundThis work aimed to identify the mathematical model and ecological determinants of COVID-19 infection and mortality across different countries during the first six months of the pandemic.MethodologyIn this study, authors used the online available data sources of randomly selected 18 countries to figure out potential determinants of COVID-19 transmissibility and mortality. The studied variables were environmental factors (daily average temperature, daily humidity), socioeconomic attributes (population age structure, count and density, human development index, per capita income (PCI), gross domestic product, internet coverage) mobility trends and chronic diseases. Researchers used the linear and exponential time series analysis, and further utilized multivariate techniques to explain the variance in the monthly increase in cases and deaths.ResultsIn the first two months, the R2 of linear models for the cases and deaths were higher than that of the corresponding R2 of the exponential model. Later one, R2 of the exponential model was occasionally relatively higher than that of the linear model. The exponential growth rate of new cases was significantly associated with mobility trends (β = 0.00398, P = 0.002), temperature (β = 0.000679, P = 0.011), humidity (β = 0.000249, P < 0.001), and the proportion of population aged ≥65 years (β = -0.000959, P = 0.012). Similarly, the exponential growth rate of deaths was significantly associated with mobility trends (β = 0.0027, P = 0.049), temperature (β = 0.0014, P < 0.001), humidity (β = -0.0026, P < 0.001), and PCI of countries. During this period, COVID-19 transmissibility was evident to be controlled as soon as social mobility is decreased by about 40% of the baseline over 3 months controlling for the other predictors.ConclusionControlling of COVID-19 pandemic is based mainly on controlling social mobility. Role of environmental determinants like temperature and humidity was well noticed on disease fatality and transmissibility. Socio-demographic determinants of COVID-19 spread and fatality included modifiable risk factors like PCI and non-modifiable risk factors like ageing.

Project description:BackgroundThe safety of COVID-19 vaccines plays an important role in addressing vaccine hesitancy. We conducted a large cohort study to evaluate the risk of non-COVID-19 mortality after COVID-19 vaccination while adjusting for confounders including individual-level demographics, clinical risk factors, health care utilization, and community-level socioeconomic risk factors.MethodsThe retrospective cohort study consisted of members from seven Vaccine Safety Datalink sites from December 14, 2020 through August 31, 2021. We conducted three separate analyses for each of the three COVID-19 vaccines used in the US. Crude non-COVID-19 mortality rates were reported by vaccine type, age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The counting process model for survival analyses was used to analyze non-COVID-19 mortality where a new observation period began when the vaccination status changed upon receipt of the first dose and the second dose. We used calendar time as the basic time scale in survival analyses to implicitly adjust for season and other temporal trend factors. A propensity score approach was used to adjust for the potential imbalance in confounders between the vaccinated and comparison groups.ResultsFor each vaccine type and across age, sex, and race/ethnicity groups, crude non-COVID-19 mortality rates among COVID-19 vaccinees were lower than those among comparators. After adjusting for confounders with the propensity score approach, the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) were 0.46 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.44-0.49) after dose 1 and 0.48 (95% CI, 0.46-0.50) after dose 2 of the BNT162b2 vaccine, 0.41 (95% CI, 0.39-0.44) after dose 1 and 0.38 (95% CI, 0.37-0.40) after dose 2 of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and 0.55 (95% CI, 0.51-0.59) after receipt of Ad26.COV2.S.ConclusionWhile residual confounding bias remained after adjusting for several individual-level and community-level risk factors, no increased risk was found for non-COVID-19 mortality among recipients of three COVID-19 vaccines used in the US.

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BCG Vaccination and Mortality of COVID-19 across 173 Countries: An Ecological Study.

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BCG Vaccination and Mortality of COVID-19 across 173 Countries: An Ecological Study.

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