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Significantly Improved COVID-19 Outcomes in Countries with Higher BCG Vaccination Coverage: A Multivariable Analysis.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic that started in China has spread within 3 months to the entire globe. We tested the hypothesis that the vaccination against tuberculosis by Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine (BCG) correlates with a better outcome for COVID-19 patients. Our analysis covers 55 countries complying with predetermined thresholds on the population size and number of deaths per million (DPM). We found a strong negative correlation between the years of BCG administration and the DPM along with the progress of the pandemic, corroborated by permutation tests. The results from multivariable regression tests with 23 economic, demographic, health-related, and pandemic restriction-related quantitative properties, substantiate the dominant contribution of BCG years to the COVID-19 outcomes. The analysis of countries according to an age-group partition reveals that the strongest correlation is attributed to the coverage in BCG vaccination of the young population (0-24 years). Furthermore, a strong correlation and statistical significance are associated with the degree of BCG coverage for the most recent 15 years, but no association was observed in these years for other broadly used vaccination protocols for measles and rubella. We propose that BCG immunization coverage, especially among the most recently vaccinated population, contribute to attenuation of the spread and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Klinger D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7563451 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Significantly Improved COVID-19 Outcomes in Countries with Higher BCG Vaccination Coverage: A Multivariable Analysis.

Klinger Danielle D Blass Ido I Rappoport Nadav N Linial Michal M

Vaccines 20200711 3

The COVID-19 pandemic that started in China has spread within 3 months to the entire globe. We tested the hypothesis that the vaccination against tuberculosis by Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine (BCG) correlates with a better outcome for COVID-19 patients. Our analysis covers 55 countries complying with predetermined thresholds on the population size and number of deaths per million (DPM). We found a strong negative correlation between the years of BCG administration and the DPM along with the pr ...[more]

PMID: 32664505

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Project description:BCG vaccination is recommended at birth in low-income countries, but vaccination is often delayed. Often 20-dose vials of BCG are not opened unless at least ten children are present for vaccination ("restricted vial-opening policy"). BCG coverage is usually reported as 12-month coverage, not disclosing the delay in vaccination. Several studies show that BCG at birth lowers neonatal mortality. We assessed BCG coverage at different ages and explored reasons for delay in BCG vaccination in rural Guinea-Bissau.Bandim Health Project (BHP) runs a health and demographic surveillance system covering women and their children in 182 randomly selected village clusters in rural Guinea-Bissau. BCG coverage was assessed for children born in 2010, when the restricted vial-opening policy was universally implemented, and in 2012-2013, where BHP provided BCG to all children at monthly visits in selected intervention regions. Factors associated with delayed BCG vaccination were evaluated using logistic regression models. Coverage between intervention and control regions were evaluated in log-binomial regression models providing prevalence ratios.Among 3951 children born in 2010, vaccination status was assessed for 84%. BCG coverage by 1 week of age was 11%, 38% by 1 month, and 92% by 12 months. If BCG had been given at first contact with the health system, 1-week coverage would have been 35% and 1-month coverage 54%. When monthly visits were introduced in intervention regions, 1-month coverage was higher in intervention regions (88%) than in control regions (51%), the prevalence ratio being 1.74 (1.53-2.00). Several factors, including socioeconomic factors, were associated with delayed BCG vaccination in the 2010-birth cohort. When BCG was available at monthly visits these factors were no longer associated with delayed BCG vaccination, only region of residence was associated with delayed BCG vaccination.BCG coverage during the first months of life is low in Guinea-Bissau. Providing BCG at monthly vaccination visits removes the risk factors associated with delayed BCG vaccination.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:The objective of this study is to assess the determinants of BCG vaccination in Ethiopia from 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). SETTING:Since Ethiopia has nine regional states and two administrative cities, sample was taken from all the divisions. The population-based sample was intended to provide estimates of key indicators for the country. PARTICIPANT:The sampling frame used for the 2016 EDHS is the Ethiopia Population and Housing Census. From 15 683 women recorded in EDHS dataset, women with no child (n=10 379) were excluded from the study. Therefore, the total sample size for this study was 5304 women. The outcome variable was BCG immunisation status of children. RESULT:Out of the study participants (n=5304), the majority were in between 20 and 34 years of age (73.8%). The median age of the respondents was 28.4 (SD=±6.5) years old. Prevalence of BCG vaccination was 63.6% (n=3373) and BCG vaccination coverage in urban residents was higher (88%) than rural residents (57.3%). Mothers' age between 20 up to 34 (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.48; 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.93) and between 35 up to 49 (AOR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.35 to 2.46) were more likely to vaccinate their child's than those mothers' age less than 20. Mothers settled in urban areas were two times more likely to vaccinate their child's than those living in rural areas (AOR=1.94; 95% CI: 1.45 to 2.60). Mothers with greater antenatal visits show higher BCG vaccination, Antenatal Care (ANC) 4 and above (AOR=3.48; 95% CI: 2.91 to 4.15). BCG vaccination is higher for mothers delivered at non-governmental organisation health facility than home (AOR=2.9; 95% CI: 1.69 to 4.96). Maternal occupation and wealth index also had a significant association with BCG vaccination. CONCLUSION:BCG vaccination coverage, in this study, was lower and determinant factors for BCG vaccination were residence, mother's age, place of delivery, mother's antenatal visit, wealth index and mother's occupation.

Project description:The 2019-Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a global impact. The effect of environmental temperature on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19 and protective efficacy of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination towards COVID-19 remains ambiguous. Therefore, we explored the global impact of environmental temperature and neonatal BCG vaccination coverage on transmissibility and fatality rate of COVID-19. The COVID-19 data for reported cases, deaths and global temperature were collected from 31st December 2020 to 3rd April 2020 for 67 countries. Temperature data were split into quartiles for all three categories (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and mean temperature). The impact of three types of temperature data and policy of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 infection was determined by applying the multivariable two-level negative binomial regression analysis keeping daily new cases and daily mortality as outcome. The highest number of cases fell in the temperature categories as following: mean temperature in the second quartile (6°C to 10.5°C), median 26, interquartile range (IQR) 237; minimum temperature in the first quartile (-26°C to 1°C), median 23, IQR 173; maximum temperature in the second quartile (10°C to 16°C), median 27.5, IQR 219. For the minimum temperature category, 28% statistically significant lower incidence was noted for new cases from the countries falling in the second quartile (2°C to 6°C) compared with countries falling in the first quartile (-26°C to 1°C) (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57 to 0.93). However, no statistically significant difference in incidence rate was observed for mean temperature categories in comparison to the first quartile. Countries with BCG vaccination policy had 58% less mortality as compared with countries without BCG coverage (IRR 0.42; 95% CI 0.18 to 0.95). Our exploratory study provides evidence that high temperature might not be associated with low transmissibility and countries having neonatal BCG vaccination policy had a low fatality rate of COVID-19.

Dataset Information

Significantly Improved COVID-19 Outcomes in Countries with Higher BCG Vaccination Coverage: A Multivariable Analysis.

Publications

Significantly Improved COVID-19 Outcomes in Countries with Higher BCG Vaccination Coverage: A Multivariable Analysis.

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