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Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios.

ABSTRACT: We here propose to model active and cumulative cases data from COVID-19 by a continuous effective model based on a modified diffusion equation under Lifshitz scaling with a dynamic diffusion coefficient. The proposed model is rich enough to capture different aspects of a complex virus diffusion as humanity has been recently facing. The model being continuous it is bound to be solved analytically and/or numerically. So, we investigate two possible models where the diffusion coefficient associated with possible types of contamination are captured by some specific profiles. The active cases curves here derived were able to successfully describe the pandemic behavior of Germany and Spain. Moreover, we also predict some scenarios for the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. Furthermore, we depicted the cumulative cases curves of COVID-19, reproducing the spreading of the pandemic between the cities of São Paulo and São José dos Campos, Brazil. The scenarios also unveil how the lockdown measures can flatten the contamination curves. We can find the best profile of the diffusion coefficient that better fit the real data of pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Anacleto MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7440039 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios.

Anacleto M A MA Brito F A FA de Queiroz A R AR Passos E E Santos J R L JRL

Physica A 20200820

We here propose to model active and cumulative cases data from COVID-19 by a continuous effective model based on a modified diffusion equation under Lifshitz scaling with a dynamic diffusion coefficient. The proposed model is rich enough to capture different aspects of a complex virus diffusion as humanity has been recently facing. The model being continuous it is bound to be solved analytically and/or numerically. So, we investigate two possible models where the diffusion coefficient associated ...[more]

PMID: 32843818

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Project description:BackgroundThousands of school systems have struggled with the decisions about how to deliver education safely and effectively amid the COVID19 pandemic. This study evaluates the public health impact of various school reopening scenarios (when, and how to return to in-person instruction) on the spread of COVID19.MethodsAn agent-based simulation model was adapted and used to project the impact of various school reopening strategies on the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in the state of Georgia during the study period, i.e., February 18th-November 24th, 2020. The tested strategies include (i) schools closed, i.e., all students receive online instruction, (ii) alternating school day, i.e., half of the students receive in-person instruction on Mondays and Wednesdays and the other half on Tuesdays and Thursdays, (iii) alternating school day for children, i.e., half of the children (ages 0-9) receive in-person instruction on Mondays and Wednesdays and the other half on Tuesdays and Thursdays, (iv) children only, i.e., only children receive in-person instruction, (v) regular, i.e., all students return to in-person instruction. We also tested the impact of universal masking in schools.ResultsAcross all scenarios, the number of COVID19-related deaths ranged from approximately 8.8 to 9.9 thousand, the number of cumulative infections ranged from 1.76 to 1.96 million for adults and 625 to 771 thousand for children and youth, and the number of COVID19-related hospitalizations ranged from approximately 71 to 80 thousand during the study period. Compared to schools reopening August 10 with a regular reopening strategy, the percentage of the population infected reduced by 13%, 11%, 9%, and 6% in the schools closed, alternating school day for children, children only, and alternating school day reopening strategies, respectively. Universal masking in schools for all students further reduced outcome measures.ConclusionsReopening schools following a regular reopening strategy would lead to higher deaths, hospitalizations, and infections. Hybrid in-person and online reopening strategies, especially if offered as an option to families and teachers who prefer to opt-in, provide a good balance in reducing the infection spread compared to the regular reopening strategy, while ensuring access to in-person education.

Dataset Information

Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios.

Publications

Diffusive process under Lifshitz scaling and pandemic scenarios.

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