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Effect of Weather on COVID-19 Transmission and Mortality in Lagos, Nigeria.

ABSTRACT: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic with more than 4 million confirmed cases and over 280,000 confirmed deaths worldwide. Evidence exists on the influence of temperature and humidity on the transmission of related infectious respiratory diseases, such as influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). This study therefore explored the effects of daily temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Lagos state, the epicenter of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Correlation analysis was performed using incidence data on COVID-19 and meteorological data for the corresponding periods from 9th March to 12th May, 2020. Our results showed that atmospheric temperature has a significant weak negative correlation with COVID-19 transmission in Lagos. Also, a significant weak negative correlation was found to exist between temperature and cumulative mortality. The strength of the relationship between temperature and the disease incidence increased when 1 week and 2 weeks' predetection delays were put into consideration. However, no significant association was found between atmospheric humidity and COVID-19 transmission or mortality in Lagos. This study contributes more knowledge on COVID-19 and will benefit efforts and decision-making geared towards its control.

SUBMITTER: Ogaugwu C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7443043 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effect of Weather on COVID-19 Transmission and Mortality in Lagos, Nigeria.

Ogaugwu Christian C Mogaji Hammed H Ogaugwu Euphemia E Nebo Uchechukwu U Okoh Hilary H Agbo Stanley S Agbon Andrew A

Scientifica 20200818

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global pandemic with more than 4 million confirmed cases and over 280,000 confirmed deaths worldwide. Evidence exists on the influence of temperature and humidity on the transmission of related infectious respiratory diseases, such as influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). This study therefore explored the effects of daily temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Lagos state, the epicenter of CO ...[more]

PMID: 32855836

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Project description:BackgroundThe current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown epidemiological and clinical characteristics that appear worsened in hypertensive patients. The morbidity and mortality of the disease among hypertensive patients in Africa have yet to be well described.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study all confirmed COVID-19 adult patients (≥18 years of age) in Lagos between February 27 to July 62,020 were included. Demographic, clinical and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records of patients admitted at the COVID-19 isolation centers in Lagos. Outcomes included dying, being discharged after recovery or being evacuated/transferred. Descriptive statistics considered proportions, means and medians. The Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used in determining associations between variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to quantify the risk of worse outcomes among hypertensives with COVID-19 and adjust for confounders. P-value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsA total of 2075 adults with COVID-19 were included in this study. The prevalence of hypertension, the most common comorbidity, was 17.8% followed by diabetes (7.2%) and asthma (2.0%). Overall mortality was 4.2% while mortality among the hypertensives was 13.7%. Severe symptoms and mortality were significantly higher among the hypertensives and survival rates were significantly lowered by the presence of additional comorbidity to 50% from 91% for those with hypertension alone and from 98% for all other patients (P < 0.001). After adjustment for confounders (age and sex), severe COVID-19and death were higher for hypertensives {severe/critical illness: HR = 2.41, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.4-4.0, death: HR = 2.30, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.2-4.6, for those with hypertension only} {severe/critical illness: HR = 3.76, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 2.1-6.4, death: crude HR = 6.63, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 3.4-1.6, for those with additional comorbidities}. Hypertension posed an increased risk of severe morbidity (approx. 4-fold) and death (approx. 7-fold) from COVID-19 in the presence of multiple comorbidities.ConclusionThe potential morbidity and mortality risks of hypertension especially with other comorbidities in COVID-19 could help direct efforts towards prevention and prognostication. This provides the rationale for improving preventive caution for people with hypertension and other comorbidities and prioritizing them for future antiviral interventions.

Project description:Weather and climate play a significant role in infectious disease transmission, through changes to transmission dynamics, host susceptibility and virus survival in the environment. Exploring the association of weather variables and COVID-19 transmission is vital in understanding the potential for seasonality and future outbreaks and developing early warning systems. Previous research examined the effects of weather on COVID-19, but the findings appeared inconsistent. This review aims to summarize the currently available literature on the association between weather and COVID-19 incidence and provide possible suggestions for developing weather-based early warning system for COVID-19 transmission. Studies eligible for inclusion used ecological methods to evaluate associations between weather (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind speed and rainfall) and COVID-19 transmission. The review showed that temperature was reported as significant in the greatest number of studies, with COVID-19 incidence increasing as temperature decreased and the highest incidence reported in the temperature range of 0-17 °C. Humidity was also significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence, though the reported results were mixed, with studies reporting positive and negative correlation. A significant interaction between humidity and temperature was also reported. Wind speed and rainfall results were not consistent across studies. Weather variables including temperature and humidity can contribute to increased transmission of COVID-19, particularly in winter conditions through increased host susceptibility and viability of the virus. While there is less indication of an association with wind speed and rainfall, these may contribute to behavioral changes that decrease exposure and risk of infection. Understanding the implications of associations with weather variables and seasonal variations for monitoring and control of future outbreaks is essential for early warning systems.

Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic challenges provision and access to essential maternity care in low-resilience health systems. The aim of this study was to explore maternity healthcare workers' experiences of, and perceptions about providing maternity care during the COVID-19 outbreak in Lagos State, Nigeria.MethodsThis qualitative study conducted individual, remote, semi-structured interviews with midwives and traditional birth attendants (TBAs). Eligible participants spoke English, and provided maternity care during COVID-19 in Lagos, Nigeria. Participants were recruited via purposive and snowball sampling, from primary health facilities in seven Local Government Areas of Lagos State. Interview transcripts were analysed thematically following the framework method.ResultsSixteen midwives (n = 11) and TBAs (n = 5) were interviewed from March to April 2021. Two overarching themes were identified from the data. 'Maternity care workers' willingness and ability to work during the COVID-19 pandemic' outlined negative influences (fear and uncertainty, risk of infection, burnout, transport difficulties), and positive influences (professional duty, faith, family and employer support). Suggestions to improve ability to work included adequate protective equipment, training, financial support, and workplace flexibility. 'Perceived impact of COVID-19 on women's access and uptake of maternity care' highlighted reduced access and uptake of antenatal and immunisation services by women. Challenges included overstretched health services, movement and cost barriers, and community fear of health facilities. Participants reported delayed healthcare seeking and unattended home births. Midwives and TBAs identified a need for community outreach to raise awareness for women to safely access maternity services. Participants highlighted the responsibility of the government to improve staff welfare, and to implement public health campaigns.ConclusionsDespite disruption to maternity care access and delivery due to COVID-19, midwives and TBAs in Lagos remained committed to their role in caring for women and babies. Nevertheless, participants highlighted issues of understaffing and mistrust in Lagos' underfunded maternity care system. Our findings suggest that future resilience during outbreaks depends on equipping maternity care workers with adequate working conditions and training, to rebuild public trust and improve access to maternity care.

Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been surging globally. Risk strata in medical attention are of dynamic significance for apposite assessment and supply distribution. Presently, no known cultured contrivance is available to fill this gap of this pandemic. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model based on vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model of various orders for gender based daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. This study also aims to proffer empirical evidence that compares incidence between male and female for COVID-19 risk factors.MethodsWilcoxon signed-rank test is employed to investigate the significance of the difference in the gender distributions of the daily incidence. A VARMA model of various orders is formulated for the gender based daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria. The optimal VARMA model is identified using Bayesian information criterion. Also, a predictive model based on univariate autoregressive moving average model is formulated for the daily death cases in Nigeria. Fold change is estimated based on crude case-fatality risk to investigate whether there is massive underreporting and under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.ResultsDaily incidence is higher in males on most days from 11 April 2020 to 12 September 2020. Result of Wilcoxon signed-rank test shows that incidence among male is significantly higher than female (p-value < 2.22 × 10-16). White neural network test shows that daily female incidence is not linear in mean (p-value = 0.00058746) while daily male incidence is linear in mean (p-value = 0.4257). McLeod-Li test shows that there is autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in the female incidence (Maximum p-value = 1.4277 × 10-5) and male incidence (Maximum p-value = 9.0816 × 10-14) at 5% level of significance. Ljung-Box test (Tsay, 2014) shows that the daily incidence cases are not random (p-value=0.0000). The optimal VARMA model for male and female daily incidence is VARMA (0,1). The optimal model for the Nigeria's daily COVID-19 death cases is identified to be ARIMA (0,1,1). There is no evidence of massive underreporting and under-testing of COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.ConclusionsComparison of the observed incidence with fitted data by gender shows that the optimal VARMA and ARIMA models fit the data well. Findings highlight the significant roles of gender on daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria.

Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 pandemic has resulted in global health and economic crisis. We investigated the experiences of frontline health care workers recovering from COVID-19 in Lagos State Nigeria.MethodsWe conducted a qualitative study among frontline health workers recovering from COVID-19 in Lagos State, Nigeria. We interviewed 12 respondents before achieving data saturation. We used a checklist to guide the interview according to the phenomenon under study. Data obtained were analyzed using Colaizzi's phenomenological method.ResultsThe study was summarized under five themes: knowledge of COVID-19, exposure, reactions, challenges and recommendations. The respondents were quite knowledgeable on COVID-19, their reactions when informed of their status were denial, anxiety, distress, disorientation, crying for fear of stigmatization, while some were psychologically prepared. Reactions from colleagues, family and friends were encouraging and provided solace for them with a few colleagues and families that had negative reactions. Challenges include anosmia, movement restriction, loneliness, worries about the state of their families, nondisclosure of status to family members, non-conducive isolation centre with limited space, insomnia, stigmatization by health workers at the isolation centre, extended duration of stay, delay in the release of test results and use of ambulance for evacuation to the isolation centres. Coping strategies were watching movies, phone calls, use of social media, listening to music, attending webinars, working on projects and reading spiritual books. Recommendations were early laboratory testing of samples and conveying of results, increase testing capacity, the need of health care workers to be more compassionate, better method of evacuation of people that tested positive to COVID-19, aside the use of ambulance that increases the likelihood of stigmatization and standard guideline for the case management of people recovering from COVID-19 in Lagos state.ConclusionsRespondents felt stigmatized and psychologically and morally traumatized. Isolation is a difficult experience and some negative emotions as expressed by previous studies were experienced by the respondents. There is need for increased testing capacity, timely results dissemination, early evacuation and creation of more isolation centres in Lagos State due to the rising number of cases and shortage of bed space.

Dataset Information

Effect of Weather on COVID-19 Transmission and Mortality in Lagos, Nigeria.

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Effect of Weather on COVID-19 Transmission and Mortality in Lagos, Nigeria.

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