Dataset Information

Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide.

ABSTRACT: Current geographic spread of documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections shows heterogeneity. This study explores the role of age in potentially driving differentials in infection spread, epidemic potential, and rates of disease severity and mortality across countries. An age-stratified deterministic mathematical model that describes SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics was applied to 159 countries and territories with a population ?1 million. Assuming worst-case scenario for the pandemic, the results indicate that there could be stark regional differences in epidemic trajectories driven by differences in the distribution of the population by age. In the African Region (median age: 18.9 years), the median R0 was 1.05 versus 2.05 in the European Region (median age: 41.7 years), and the median (per 100 persons) for the final cumulative infection incidence was 22.5 (versus 69.0), for severe and/or critical disease cases rate was 3.3 (versus 13.0), and for death rate was 0.5 (versus 3.9). Age could be a driver of variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide. Countries with sizable adult and/or elderly populations and smaller children populations may experience large and rapid epidemics in absence of interventions. Meanwhile, countries with predominantly younger age cohorts may experience smaller and slower epidemics. These predictions, however, should not lead to complacency, as the pandemic could still have a heavy toll nearly everywhere.

SUBMITTER: Ayoub HH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7444586 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide.

Ayoub Houssein H HH Chemaitelly Hiam H Seedat Shaheen S Mumtaz Ghina R GR Makhoul Monia M Abu-Raddad Laith J LJ

PloS one 20200820 8

Current geographic spread of documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections shows heterogeneity. This study explores the role of age in potentially driving differentials in infection spread, epidemic potential, and rates of disease severity and mortality across countries. An age-stratified deterministic mathematical model that describes SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics was applied to 159 countries and territories with a population ≥1 million. Assuming worst-ca ...[more]

PMID: 32817662

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background: Variants of concern (VOCs) have been replacing each other during the still rampant COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, SARS-CoV-2 populations have evolved increasingly intricate constellations of mutations that often enhance transmissibility, disease severity, and other epidemiological characteristics. The origin and evolution of these constellations remain puzzling. Methods: Here we study the evolution of VOCs at the proteome level by analyzing about 12 million genomic sequences retrieved from GISAID on July 23, 2022. A total 183,276 mutations were identified and filtered with a relevancy heuristic. The prevalence of haplotypes and free-standing mutations was then tracked monthly in various latitude corridors of the world. Results: A chronology of 22 haplotypes defined three phases driven by protein flexibility-rigidity, environmental sensing, and immune escape. A network of haplotypes illustrated the recruitment and coalescence of mutations into major VOC constellations and seasonal effects of decoupling and loss. Protein interaction networks mediated by haplotypes predicted communications impacting the structure and function of proteins, showing the increasingly central role of molecular interactions involving the spike (S), nucleocapsid (N), and membrane (M) proteins. Haplotype markers either affected fusogenic regions while spreading along the sequence of the S-protein or clustered around binding domains. Modeling of protein structure with AlphaFold2 showed that VOC Omicron and one of its haplotypes were major contributors to the distortion of the M-protein endodomain, which behaves as a receptor of other structural proteins during virion assembly. Remarkably, VOC constellations acted cooperatively to balance the more extreme effects of individual haplotypes. Conclusions: Our study uncovers seasonal patterns of emergence and diversification occurring amid a highly dynamic evolutionary landscape of bursts and waves. The mapping of genetically-linked mutations to structures that sense environmental change with powerful ab initio modeling tools demonstrates the potential of deep-learning for COVID-19 predictive intelligence and therapeutic intervention.

Project description:BackgroundFrom March to June 2022, an Omicron BA.2 epidemic occurred in Shanghai. We aimed to better understand the transmission dynamics and identify age-specific transmission characteristics for the epidemic.MethodsData on COVID-19 cases were collected from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission during the period from 20th February to 1st June. The effective reproductive number (Rt) and transmission distance between cases were calculated. An age-structured SEIR model with social contact patterns was developed to reconstruct the transmission dynamics and evaluate age-specific transmission characteristics. Least square method was used to calibrate the model. Basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated with next generation matrix.ResultsR0 of Omicron variant was 7.9 (95% CI: 7.4 to 8.4). With strict interventions, Rt had dropped quickly from 3.6 (95% CI: 2.7 to 4.7) on 4th March to below 1 on 18th April. The mean transmission distance of the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai was 13.4 km (95% CI: 11.1 to 15.8 km), which was threefold longer compared with that of epidemic caused by the wild-type virus in Wuhan, China. The model estimated that there would have been a total 870,845 (95% CI: 815,400 to 926,289) cases for the epidemic from 20th February to 15th June, and 27.7% (95% CI: 24.4% to 30.9%) cases would have been unascertained. People aged 50-59 years had the highest transmission risk 0.216 (95% CI: 0.210 to 0.222), and the highest secondary attack rate (47.62%, 95% CI: 38.71% to 56.53%).ConclusionsThe Omicron variant spread more quickly and widely than other variants and resulted in about one third cases unascertained for the recent outbreak in Shanghai. Prioritizing isolation and screening of people aged 40-59 might suppress the epidemic more effectively. Routine surveillance among people aged 40-59 years could also provide insight into the stage of the epidemic and the timely detection of new variants.Trial registrationWe did not involve clinical trial.

Project description:BackgroundWith limited vaccine supplies, an informed position on the status of SARS-CoV-2 infection in people can assist the prioritization of vaccine deployment.ObjectivesWe performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the global and regional SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalences around the world.Data sourcesWe systematically searched peer-reviewed databases (PubMed, Embase and Scopus), and preprint servers (medRxiv, bioRxiv and SSRN) for articles published between 1 January 2020 and 30 March 2021.Study eligibility criteriaPopulation-based studies reporting the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the general population were included.ParticipantsPeople of different age groups, occupations, educational levels, ethnic backgrounds and socio-economic status from the general population.InterventionsThere were no interventions.MethodsWe used the random-eﬀects meta-analyses and empirical Bayesian method to estimate the pooled seroprevalence and conducted subgroup and meta-regression analyses to explore potential sources of heterogeneity as well as the relationship between seroprevalence and socio-demographics.ResultsWe identified 241 eligible studies involving 6.3 million individuals from 60 countries. The global pooled seroprevalence was 9.47% (95% CI 8.99-9.95%), although the heterogeneity among studies was significant (I2 = 99.9%). We estimated that ∼738 million people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (as of December 2020). Highest and lowest seroprevalences were recorded in Central and Southern Asia (22.91%, 19.11-26.72%) and Eastern and South-eastern Asia (1.62%, 1.31-1.95%), respectively. Seroprevalence estimates were higher in males, persons aged 20-50 years, in minority ethnic groups living in countries or regions with low income and human development indices.ConclusionsThe present study indicates that the majority of the world's human population was still highly susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection in mid-2021, emphasizing the need for vaccine deployment to vulnerable groups of people, particularly in developing countries, and for the implementation of enhanced preventive measures until 'herd immunity' to SARS-CoV-2 has developed.

Project description:The world is experiencing one of the most severe viral outbreaks in the last few years, the pandemic infection by SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 disease. As of December 10th 2021, the virus has spread worldwide, with a total number of more than 267 million of confirmed cases (four times more in the last year), and more than 5 million deaths. A great effort has been undertaken to molecularly characterize the virus, track the spreading of different variants across the globe with the aim to understand the potential effects in terms of transmission capability and different fatality rates. Here we focus on the genomic diversity and distribution of the virus in the early stages of the pandemic, to better characterize the origin of COVID-19 and to define the geographical and temporal evolution of genetic clades. By performing a comparative analysis of 75401 SARS-CoV-2 reported sequences (as of December 2020), using as reference the first viral sequence reported in Wuhan in December 2019, we described the existence of 26538 genetic variants, the most frequent clustering into four major clades characterized by a specific geographical distribution. Notably, we found the most frequent variant, the previously reported missense p.Asp614Gly in the S protein, as a single mutation in only three patients, whereas in the large majority of cases it occurs in concomitance with three other variants, suggesting a high linkage and that this variant alone might not provide a significant selective advantage to the virus. Moreover, we evaluated the presence and the distribution in our dataset of the mutations characterizing the so called "british variant", identified at the beginning of 2021, and observed that 9 out of 17 are present only in few sequences, but never in linkage with each other, suggesting a synergistic effect in this new viral strain. In summary, this is a large-scale analysis of SARS-CoV-2 deposited sequences, with a particular focus on the geographical and temporal evolution of genetic clades in the early phase of COVID-19 pandemic.

Dataset Information

Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide.

Publications

Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets