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An epidemiological model to aid decision-making for COVID-19 control in Sri Lanka.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Sri Lanka diagnosed its first local case of COVID-19 on 11 March 2020. The government acted swiftly to contain transmission, with extensive public health measures. At the end of 30 days, Sri Lanka had 197 cases, 54 recovered and 7 deaths; a staged relaxing of the lockdown is now underway. This paper proposes a theoretical basis for estimating the limits within which transmission should be constrained in order to ensure that the case load remains within the capacity of Sri Lanka's health system. METHODS:We used the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model to explore the number of new infections and estimate ICU bed requirement at different levels of R0 values after lifting lockdown restrictions. We developed a web-based application that enables visualization of cases and ICU bed requirements with time, with adjustable parameters that include: population at risk; number of identified and recovered cases; percentage identified; infectious period; R0 or doubling time; percentage critically ill; available ICU beds; duration of ICU stay; and uncertainty of projection. RESULTS:The three-day moving average of the caseload suggested two waves of transmission from Day 0 to 17 (R0 = 3.32, 95% CI 1.85-5.41) and from Day 18-30 (R = 1.25, 95%CI: 0.93-1.63). We estimate that if there are 156 active cases with 91 recovered at the time of lifting lockdown restrictions, and R increases to 1.5 (doubling time 19 days), under the standard parameters for Sri Lanka, the ICU bed capacity of 300 is likely to be saturated by about 100 days, signaled by 18 new infections (95% CI 15-22) on Day 14 after lifting lockdown restrictions. CONCLUSION:Our model suggests that to ensure that the case load remains within the available capacity of the health system after lifting lockdown restrictions, transmission should not exceed R = 1.5. This model and the web-based application may be useful in other low and middle income countries which have similar constraints on health resources.

SUBMITTER: Ediriweera DS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7451571 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An epidemiological model to aid decision-making for COVID-19 control in Sri Lanka.

Ediriweera Dileepa Senajith DS de Silva Nilanthi Renuka NR Malavige Gathsaurie Neelika GN de Silva Hithanadura Janaka HJ

PloS one 20200827 8

<h4>Background</h4>Sri Lanka diagnosed its first local case of COVID-19 on 11 March 2020. The government acted swiftly to contain transmission, with extensive public health measures. At the end of 30 days, Sri Lanka had 197 cases, 54 recovered and 7 deaths; a staged relaxing of the lockdown is now underway. This paper proposes a theoretical basis for estimating the limits within which transmission should be constrained in order to ensure that the case load remains within the capacity of Sri Lank ...[more]

PMID: 32853295

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Project description:BackgroundNeurological manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been reported from many countries around the world, including the South Asian region. This surveillance study aimed to describe the spectrum of neurological disorders associated with COVID-19 in Sri Lanka.MethodsCOVID-19 patients manifesting neurological disorders one week prior and up to six weeks after infection were recruited from all the neurology centres of the government hospitals in Sri Lanka from May 2021 - May 2022. Data was collected using a structured data form that was electronically transmitted to a central repository. All patients were evaluated and managed by a neurologist. Data were analysed using simple descriptive analysis to characterise demographic and disease related variables, and simple comparisons and logistic regression were performed to analyse outcomes and their associations.ResultsOne hundred and eighty-four patients with neurological manifestations associated with COVID-19 were recruited from all nine provinces in Sri Lanka. Ischaemic stroke (31%) was the commonest neurological manifestation followed by encephalopathy (13.6%), Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) (9.2%) and encephalitis (7.6%). Ischaemic stroke, encephalitis and encephalopathy presented within 6 days of onset of COVID-19 symptoms, whereas GBS and myelitis presented up to 10 days post onset while epilepsy and Bell palsy presented up to 20 - 40 days post onset. Haemorrhagic stroke presented either just prior to or at onset, or 10 - 25 days post onset of COVID-19 symptomatic infection. An increased frequency of children presenting with encephalitis and encephalopathy was observed during the Omicron variant predominant period. A poor outcome (no recovery or death) was associated with supplemental oxygen requirement during admission (Odds Ratio: 12.94; p = 0.046).ConclusionsThe spectrum and frequencies of COVID-19 associated neurological disorders in Sri Lanka were similar to that reported from other countries, with strokes and encephalopathy being the commonest. Requiring supplemental oxygen during hospitalisation was associated with a poor outcome.

Project description:BackgroundThere is widespread concern over the impact of public health measures, such as lockdowns, associated with COVID-19 on mental health, including suicide. High-quality evidence from low-income and middle-income countries, where the burden of suicide and self-harm is greatest, is scarce. We aimed to determine the effect of the pandemic on hospital presentations for self-poisoning.MethodsIn this interrupted time-series analysis, we established a new self-poisoning register at the tertiary care Teaching Hospital Peradeniya in Sri Lanka, a lower-middle-income country. Using a standard extraction sheet, data were gathered for all patients admitted to the Toxicology Unit with self-poisoning between Jan 1, 2019, and Aug 31, 2020. Only patients classified by the treating clinician as having intentionally self-poisoned were included. Data on date of admission, age or date of birth, sex, and poisoning method were collected. No data on ethnicity were available. We used interrupted time-series analysis to calculate weekly hospital admissions for self-poisoning before (Jan 1, 2019-March 19, 2020) and during (March 20-Aug 31, 2020) the pandemic, overall and by age (age <25 years vs ≥25 years) and sex. Individuals with missing date of admission were excluded from the main analysis.FindingsBetween Jan 1, 2019, and Aug 31, 2020, 1401 individuals (584 [41·7%] males, 761 [54·3%] females, and 56 [4·0%] of unknown sex) presented to the hospital with self-poisoning and had date of admission data. A 32% (95% CI 12-48) reduction in hospital presentations for self-poisoning in the pandemic period compared with pre-pandemic trends was observed (rate ratio 0·68, 95% CI 0·52-0·88; p=0·0032). We found no evidence that the impact of the pandemic differed by sex (rate ratio 0·64, 95% CI 0·44-0·94, for females vs 0·85, 0·57-1·26, for males; pinteraction=0·43) or age (0·64, 0·44-0·93, for patients aged <25 years vs 0·81, 0·57-1·16, for patients aged ≥25 years; pinteraction=0·077).InterpretationThis is the first study from a lower-middle-income country to estimate the impact of the pandemic on self-harm (non-fatal) accounting for underlying trends. If the fall in hospital presentations during the pandemic reflects a reduction in the medical treatment of people who have self-poisoned, rather than a true fall in incidence, then public health messages should emphasise the importance of seeking help early.FundingElizabeth Blackwell Institute University of Bristol, Wellcome Trust, and Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention.TranslationsFor the Sinhalese and Tamil translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

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An epidemiological model to aid decision-making for COVID-19 control in Sri Lanka.

Publications

An epidemiological model to aid decision-making for COVID-19 control in Sri Lanka.

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