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A phase I dose-finding design with incorporation of historical information and adaptive shrinking boundaries.

ABSTRACT: Although many novel phase I designs have been developed in recent years, few studies have discussed how to incorporate external information into dose-finding designs. In this paper, we first propose a new method for developing a phase I design, Bayesian optimal interval design (BOIN)[Liu S et al. (2015), Yuan Y et al. (2016)], for formally incorporating historical information. An algorithm to automatically generate parameters for prior set-up is introduced. Second, we propose a method to relax the fixed boundaries of the BOIN design to be adaptive, such that the accumulative information can be used more appropriately. This modified design is called adaptive BOIN (aBOIN). Simulation studies to examine performances of the aBOIN design in small and large sample sizes revealed comparable performances for the aBOIN and original BOIN designs for small sample sizes. However, aBOIN outperformed BOIN in moderate sample sizes. Simulation results also showed that when historical trials are conducted in settings similar to those for the current trial, their performance can be significantly improved. This approach can be applied directly to pediatric cancer trials, since all phase I trials in children are followed by similar efficient adult trials in the current drug development paradigm. However, when information is weak, operating characteristics are compromised.

SUBMITTER: Li C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7451661 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A phase I dose-finding design with incorporation of historical information and adaptive shrinking boundaries.

Li Chen C Pan Haitao H

PloS one 20200827 8

Although many novel phase I designs have been developed in recent years, few studies have discussed how to incorporate external information into dose-finding designs. In this paper, we first propose a new method for developing a phase I design, Bayesian optimal interval design (BOIN)[Liu S et al. (2015), Yuan Y et al. (2016)], for formally incorporating historical information. An algorithm to automatically generate parameters for prior set-up is introduced. Second, we propose a method to relax t ...[more]

PMID: 32853204

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Project description:For most antivenoms there is little information from clinical studies to infer the relationship between dose and efficacy or dose and toxicity. Antivenom dose-finding studies usually recruit too few patients (e.g. fewer than 20) relative to clinically significant event rates (e.g. 5%). Model based adaptive dose-finding studies make efficient use of accrued patient data by using information across dosing levels, and converge rapidly to the contextually defined 'optimal dose'. Adequate sample sizes for adaptive dose-finding trials can be determined by simulation. We propose a model based, Bayesian phase 2 type, adaptive clinical trial design for the characterisation of optimal initial antivenom doses in contexts where both efficacy and toxicity are measured as binary endpoints. This design is illustrated in the context of dose-finding for Daboia siamensis (Eastern Russell's viper) envenoming in Myanmar. The design formalises the optimal initial dose of antivenom as the dose closest to that giving a pre-specified desired efficacy, but resulting in less than a pre-specified maximum toxicity. For Daboia siamensis envenoming, efficacy is defined as the restoration of blood coagulability within six hours, and toxicity is defined as anaphylaxis. Comprehensive simulation studies compared the expected behaviour of the model based design to a simpler rule based design (a modified '3+3' design). The model based design can identify an optimal dose after fewer patients relative to the rule based design. Open source code for the simulations is made available in order to determine adequate sample sizes for future adaptive snakebite trials. Antivenom dose-finding trials would benefit from using standard model based adaptive designs. Dose-finding trials where rare events (e.g. 5% occurrence) are of clinical importance necessitate larger sample sizes than current practice. We will apply the model based design to determine a safe and efficacious dose for a novel lyophilised antivenom to treat Daboia siamensis envenoming in Myanmar.

Dataset Information

A phase I dose-finding design with incorporation of historical information and adaptive shrinking boundaries.

Publications

A phase I dose-finding design with incorporation of historical information and adaptive shrinking boundaries.

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