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A Predictive Nomogram for Early Mortality in Stage IV Gastric Cancer.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND The study was intended to establish predictive nomogram models for predicting total early mortality (the probability of surviving less than or equal to 3 months) and cancer-specific early mortality in patients with stage IV gastric cancer. This was the first study to establish prognostic survival in patients with stage IV gastric cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients from the SEER database were identified using inclusion and exclusion criteria. Their clinical characteristics were statistically analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test were used to compare the influences of different factors on survival time. Logistic regression models were conducted to explore the correlative factors of early mortality. A nomogram was established based on factors significant in the logistic regression model and an internal validation was performed. RESULTS Of the 11,036 eligible patients included in the study, 4932(44.7%) patients resulted in total early death (42.6% died of the cancer and 2.1% died of other reasons). Larger tumor size, poor differentiation, and liver metastasis were positively related to cancer-specific early mortality. Surgery was negatively related to total early mortality and cancer-specific early mortality, while cardia was only negatively associated with total early death. Predictive nomogram models for total early mortality and cancer-specific early mortality have been validated internally. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve were 73.5%, and 68.0%, respectively, and the decision curve analysis also proved the value of the models. CONCLUSIONS The nomogram models proved to be a suitable tool for predicting the early mortality in stage IV gastric cancer.

SUBMITTER: Feng Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7453749 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Predictive Nomogram for Early Mortality in Stage IV Gastric Cancer.

Feng Yuqian Y Guo Kaibo K Jin Huimin H Xiang Yuying Y Zhang Yiting Y Ruan Shanming S

Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research 20200819

BACKGROUND The study was intended to establish predictive nomogram models for predicting total early mortality (the probability of surviving less than or equal to 3 months) and cancer-specific early mortality in patients with stage IV gastric cancer. This was the first study to establish prognostic survival in patients with stage IV gastric cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients from the SEER database were identified using inclusion and exclusion criteria. Their clinical characteristics were stat ...[more]

PMID: 32813682

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Project description:BACKGROUND The early death of patients is a global cancer issue. We aimed to identify the risk factors for early death in stage IV breast cancer. Predictive nomograms for early death evaluation were generated based on the risk factors. MATERIAL AND METHODS Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, patients diagnosed with IV breast cancer were selected. The risk factors for early death (survival time ?1 year) were identified using logistic regression model analysis. Predictive nomograms were constructed and internal validation was performed. RESULTS A total of 5998 (32.6%) breast cancer patients were diagnosed as early death in the construction cohort. Age older than 50 years, unmarried status, black race, uninsured status, triple-negative type, grade (II and III), tumor size >5 cm, and metastasis to lung, liver, and brain were risk factors for total early death, while Luminal B subtype, N1 stage, and surgical interventions were associated with lower risk of early death. As for cancer-specific and non-cancer-specific early death, several factors were not consistent between the 2 groups. Nomograms for all-cause, cancer-specific, and non-cancer-specific early death were constructed. The calibration curve showed satisfactory agreement. The areas under the ROC curve (AUC) were 78.3% (95% CI: 77.7-78.9%), 75.8% (75.1-76.4%), and 72.3% (71.6-72.9%), respectively. In the validation cohort, a total of 689 (19.3%) patients were diagnosed as early death and the calibration curve showed satisfactory agreement. The AUCs of the all-cause, cancer-specific, and non-cancer-specific early death prediction were 74.0% (95% CI: 72.5-75.4%), 73.5% (72.0-74.9%), and 68.6% (67.0-70.1%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS Nomograms were generated to predict early death, with good calibration and discrimination. The predictive model can provide a reference for identifying cases with high risk of early death among stage IV breast cancer patients and play an auxiliary role in guiding individual treatment.

Dataset Information

A Predictive Nomogram for Early Mortality in Stage IV Gastric Cancer.

Publications

A Predictive Nomogram for Early Mortality in Stage IV Gastric Cancer.

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