Dataset Information

Contribution of Predictive and Prognostic Biomarkers to Clinical Research on Chronic Kidney Disease.

ABSTRACT: Chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined as the presence of albuminuria and/or reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, is considered a growing public health problem, with its prevalence and incidence having almost doubled in the past three decades. The implementation of novel biomarkers in clinical practice is crucial, since it could allow earlier diagnosis and lead to an improvement in CKD outcomes. Nevertheless, a clear guidance on how to develop biomarkers in the setting of CKD is not yet available. The aim of this review is to report the framework for implementing biomarkers in observational and intervention studies. Biomarkers are classified as either prognostic or predictive; the first type is used to identify the likelihood of a patient to develop an endpoint regardless of treatment, whereas the second type is used to determine whether the patient is likely to benefit from a specific treatment. Many single assays and complex biomarkers were shown to improve the prediction of cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in CKD patients on top of the traditional risk factors. Biomarkers were also shown to improve clinical trial designs. Understanding the correct ways to validate and implement novel biomarkers in CKD will help to mitigate the global burden of CKD and to improve the individual prognosis of these high-risk patients.

SUBMITTER: Provenzano M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7461617 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Contribution of Predictive and Prognostic Biomarkers to Clinical Research on Chronic Kidney Disease.

Provenzano Michele M Rotundo Salvatore S Chiodini Paolo P Gagliardi Ida I Michael Ashour A Angotti Elvira E Borrelli Silvio S Serra Raffaele R Foti Daniela D De Sarro Giovambattista G Andreucci Michele M

International journal of molecular sciences 20200814 16

Chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined as the presence of albuminuria and/or reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup>, is considered a growing public health problem, with its prevalence and incidence having almost doubled in the past three decades. The implementation of novel biomarkers in clinical practice is crucial, since it could allow earlier diagnosis and lead to an improvement in CKD outcomes. Nevertheless, a clear guidance on how to develop b ...[more]

PMID: 32823966

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Project description:Current equation-based risk stratification algorithms for kidney failure (KF) may have limited applicability in real world settings, where missing information may impede their computation for a large share of patients, hampering one from taking full advantage of the wealth of information collected in electronic health records. To overcome such limitations, we trained and validated the Prognostic Reasoning System for Chronic Kidney Disease (PROGRES-CKD), a novel algorithm predicting end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). PROGRES-CKD is a naïve Bayes classifier predicting ESKD onset within 6 and 24 months in adult, stage 3-to-5 CKD patients. PROGRES-CKD trained on 17,775 CKD patients treated in the Fresenius Medical Care (FMC) NephroCare network. The algorithm was validated in a second independent FMC cohort (n = 6760) and in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study cohort (n = 4058). We contrasted PROGRES-CKD accuracy against the performance of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). Discrimination accuracy in the validation cohorts was excellent for both short-term (stage 4-5 CKD, FMC: AUC = 0.90, 95%CI 0.88-0.91; GCKD: AUC = 0.91, 95% CI 0.86-0.97) and long-term (stage 3-5 CKD, FMC: AUC = 0.85, 95%CI 0.83-0.88; GCKD: AUC = 0.85, 95%CI 0.83-0.88) forecasting horizons. The performance of PROGRES-CKD was non-inferior to KFRE for the 24-month horizon and proved more accurate for the 6-month horizon forecast in both validation cohorts. In the real world setting captured in the FMC validation cohort, PROGRES-CKD was computable for all patients, whereas KFRE could be computed for complete cases only (i.e., 30% and 16% of the cohort in 6- and 24-month horizons). PROGRES-CKD accurately predicts KF onset among CKD patients. Contrary to equation-based scores, PROGRES-CKD extends to patients with incomplete data and allows explicit assessment of prediction robustness in case of missing values. PROGRES-CKD may efficiently assist physicians' prognostic reasoning in real-life applications.

Dataset Information

Contribution of Predictive and Prognostic Biomarkers to Clinical Research on Chronic Kidney Disease.

Publications

Contribution of Predictive and Prognostic Biomarkers to Clinical Research on Chronic Kidney Disease.

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