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Validation of a Novel Predictive Algorithm for Kidney Failure in Patients Suffering from Chronic Kidney Disease: The Prognostic Reasoning System for Chronic Kidney Disease (PROGRES-CKD).

ABSTRACT: Current equation-based risk stratification algorithms for kidney failure (KF) may have limited applicability in real world settings, where missing information may impede their computation for a large share of patients, hampering one from taking full advantage of the wealth of information collected in electronic health records. To overcome such limitations, we trained and validated the Prognostic Reasoning System for Chronic Kidney Disease (PROGRES-CKD), a novel algorithm predicting end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). PROGRES-CKD is a naïve Bayes classifier predicting ESKD onset within 6 and 24 months in adult, stage 3-to-5 CKD patients. PROGRES-CKD trained on 17,775 CKD patients treated in the Fresenius Medical Care (FMC) NephroCare network. The algorithm was validated in a second independent FMC cohort (n = 6760) and in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study cohort (n = 4058). We contrasted PROGRES-CKD accuracy against the performance of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). Discrimination accuracy in the validation cohorts was excellent for both short-term (stage 4-5 CKD, FMC: AUC = 0.90, 95%CI 0.88-0.91; GCKD: AUC = 0.91, 95% CI 0.86-0.97) and long-term (stage 3-5 CKD, FMC: AUC = 0.85, 95%CI 0.83-0.88; GCKD: AUC = 0.85, 95%CI 0.83-0.88) forecasting horizons. The performance of PROGRES-CKD was non-inferior to KFRE for the 24-month horizon and proved more accurate for the 6-month horizon forecast in both validation cohorts. In the real world setting captured in the FMC validation cohort, PROGRES-CKD was computable for all patients, whereas KFRE could be computed for complete cases only (i.e., 30% and 16% of the cohort in 6- and 24-month horizons). PROGRES-CKD accurately predicts KF onset among CKD patients. Contrary to equation-based scores, PROGRES-CKD extends to patients with incomplete data and allows explicit assessment of prediction robustness in case of missing values. PROGRES-CKD may efficiently assist physicians' prognostic reasoning in real-life applications.

SUBMITTER: Bellocchio F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8656741 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundChronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a complex condition leading to loss of kidney function. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice questionnaire on CKD (CKD-KAP) among practicing physicians in Pakistan since no validated tool was available for the said purpose.MethodsThe study consisted of four phases with phase-I focusing on literature review, phase II was the actual questionnaire development phase, face and content validity was determined in phase III, and finally pilot testing was performed in phase IV to determine validity and reliability. The development phase encompassed a thorough review of literature, focus-group discussion, expert review, and evaluation. The validation phase consisted of content validity, face validity, construct validity, convergent validity, and reliability. The pilot testing was performed by studying the KAP of 100 practicing physicians in tertiary care hospitals in Pakistan. The knowledge section of the validation phase utilized Item Response Theory (IRT) analysis. The attitude and practices sections utilized Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) theory. The reliability analysis utilized Cronbach's alpha and correlations.ResultsThe CKD-KAP questionnaire had three main sections: knowledge, attitude, and practice. During the validation, IRT analysis was performed on knowledge, which focused on the measure of the coefficient of discrimination and difficulty of the items; 40 out of 41 knowledge items have both discrimination and difficulty coefficients within an acceptable range. The EFA model was also fitted in the attitude and practices section, and scree plot and Eigenvalues suggested three and four dimensions within the attitude and practices section. The factor loading of all items was found to be acceptable except for one item in attitude which was deleted. The convergent validity demonstrated a significant association between all three sections except knowledge and practices. The reliability (internal consistency) analysis demonstrated Cronbach's alpha values above 0.7 and significant inter-item correlation. The final model of CKD-KAP had 40 knowledge, 13 attitude, and 10 practice items with a combination of both positive as well as negative questions and statements.ConclusionsThe CKD-KAP was found to be psychometrically valid and reliable, hence can be used to determine the knowledge, attitude, and practices of physicians toward chronic kidney disease.

Project description:BackgroundThe kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) predicts the 2- and 5-year risk of needing kidney replacement therapy (KRT) using four risk factors - age, sex, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Although the KFRE has been recalibrated in a UK cohort, this did not consider minority ethnic groups. Further validation of the KFRE in different ethnicities is a research priority. The KFRE also does not consider the competing risk of death, which may lead to overestimation of KRT risk. This study externally validates the KFRE for patients of South Asian ethnicity and compares methods for accounting for ethnicity and the competing event of death.MethodsData were gathered from an established UK cohort containing 35,539 individuals diagnosed with chronic kidney disease. The KFRE was externally validated and updated in several ways taking into account ethnicity, using recognised methods for time-to-event data, including the competing risk of death. A clinical impact assessment compared the updated models through consideration of referrals made to secondary care.ResultsThe external validation showed the risk of KRT differed by ethnicity. Model validation performance improved when incorporating ethnicity and its interactions with ACR and eGFR as additional risk factors. Furthermore, accounting for the competing risk of death improved prediction. Using criteria of 5 years ≥ 5% predicted KRT risk, the competing risks model resulted in an extra 3 unnecessary referrals (0.59% increase) but identified an extra 1 KRT case (1.92% decrease) compared to the previous best model. Hybrid criteria of predicted risk using the competing risks model and ACR ≥ 70 mg/mmol should be used in referrals to secondary care.ConclusionsThe accuracy of KFRE prediction improves when updated to consider South Asian ethnicity and to account for the competing risk of death. This may reduce unnecessary referrals whilst identifying risks of KRT and could further individualise the KFRE and improve its clinical utility. Further research should consider other ethnicities.

Project description:Rationale & objectiveChronic kidney disease (CKD) in children is associated with cognitive dysfunction that affects school performance and quality of life. The relationship between CKD-mineral and bone disorder and cognitive function in children is unknown.Study designObservational study.Participants702 children enrolled in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) Study.PredictorsPlasma fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23), parathyroid hormone (PTH), calcium, phosphorus, 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D), and 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25[OH]2D).OutcomesNeurocognitive tests of intelligence, academic achievement, and executive functions.Analytical approachLinear regression models to analyze the cross-sectional associations between log2FGF-23, 25(OH)D, 1,25(OH)2D, PTH, calcium, and phosphorus z scores and the cognitive test scores of interest after adjustment for demographics, blood pressure, proteinuria, and kidney function.ResultsAt baseline, median age was 12 (95% CI, 8.3, 15.2) years and estimated glomerular filtration rate was 54 (40.5, 67.8) mL/min/1.73 m2. In fully adjusted analyses, 25(OH)D, 1,25(OH)2D, PTH, calcium, and phosphorus z scores did not associate with cognitive test scores. In fully adjusted analyses, log2FGF-23 was associated with abnormal test scores for attention regulation (P < 0.05); specifically, Conners' Continuous Performance Test II Errors of Omission (β = 2.3 [1.0, 3.6]), Variability (β=1.4 [0.4, -2.4]), and Hit Reaction Time (β = 1.3 [0.2, 2.4]). Children in the highest FGF-23 tertile group had 7% and 9% greater cognitive risk for Hit Reaction Time and Errors of Omission compared with those in the lowest tertile, respectively. In fully adjusted analyses, higher FGF-23 tertile was associated with increased cognitive risk (P < 0.05) for Errors of Omission (β = 0.4 [0.1, 0.7]) and Hit Reaction Time (β = 0.4 [0.1, 0.7]).LimitationsThe study does not assess the cumulative effects of FGF-23 excess on cognitive function over time. Within-population stratified analyses were not performed due to limited sample size.ConclusionsIn children with CKD, higher plasma FGF-23 level is associated with lower performance in targeted tests of executive function, specifically attention regulation, independent of glomerular filtration rate.

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Validation of a Novel Predictive Algorithm for Kidney Failure in Patients Suffering from Chronic Kidney Disease: The Prognostic Reasoning System for Chronic Kidney Disease (PROGRES-CKD).

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