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A clinical prediction nomogram to assess risk of colorectal cancer among patients with type 2 diabetes.

ABSTRACT: Colorectal cancer remains a major health burden worldwide and is closely related to type 2 diabetes. This study aimed to develop and validate a colorectal cancer risk prediction model to identify high-risk individuals with type 2 diabetes. Records of 930 patients with type 2 diabetes were reviewed and data were collected from 1 November 2013 to 31 December 2019. Clinical and demographic parameters were analyzed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The nomogram to assess the risk of colorectal cancer was constructed and validated by bootstrap resampling. Predictors in the prediction nomogram included age, sex, other blood-glucose-lowering drugs and thiazolidinediones. The nomogram demonstrated moderate discrimination in estimating the risk of colorectal cancer, with Hosmer-Lemeshow test P?=?0.837, an unadjusted C-index of 0.713 (95% CI 0.670-0.757) and a bootstrap-corrected C index of 0.708. In addition, the decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram would be clinically useful. We have developed a nomogram that can predict the risk of colorectal cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes. The nomogram showed favorable calibration and discrimination values, which may help clinicians in making recommendations about colorectal cancer screening for patients with type 2 diabetes.

SUBMITTER: Feng LH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7463255 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A clinical prediction nomogram to assess risk of colorectal cancer among patients with type 2 diabetes.

Feng Lu-Huai LH Su Tingting T Bu Kun-Peng KP Ren Shuang S Yang Zhenhua Z Deng Cheng-En CE Li Bi-Xun BX Wei Wei-Yuan WY

Scientific reports 20200901 1

Colorectal cancer remains a major health burden worldwide and is closely related to type 2 diabetes. This study aimed to develop and validate a colorectal cancer risk prediction model to identify high-risk individuals with type 2 diabetes. Records of 930 patients with type 2 diabetes were reviewed and data were collected from 1 November 2013 to 31 December 2019. Clinical and demographic parameters were analyzed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The nomogram to ass ...[more]

PMID: 32873885

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Project description:AimsTo develop a precise personalized type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prediction model by cost-effective and readily available parameters in a Central China population.MethodsA 3-year cohort study was performed on 5557 nondiabetic individuals who underwent annual physical examination as the training cohort, and a subsequent validation cohort of 1870 individuals was conducted using the same procedures. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed, and a simple nomogram was constructed via the stepwise method. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analyses were performed by 500 bootstrap resamplings to assess the determination and clinical value of the nomogram, respectively. We also estimated the optimal cutoff values of each risk factor for T2DM prediction.ResultsThe 3-year cumulative incidence of T2DM was 10.71%. We developed simple nomograms that predict the risk of T2DM for females and males by using the parameters of age, BMI, fasting blood glucose (FBG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLc), and triglycerides (TG). In the training cohort, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) showed statistical accuracy (AUC = 0.863 for female, AUC = 0.751 for male), and similar results were shown in the subsequent validation cohort (AUC = 0.847 for female, AUC = 0.755 for male). Decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical value of this nomogram. To optimally predict the risk of T2DM, the cutoff values of age, BMI, FBG, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDLc, HDLc, and TG were 47.5 and 46.5 years, 22.9 and 23.7 kg/m2, 5.1 and 5.4 mmol/L, 118 and 123 mmHg, 71 and 85 mmHg, 5.06 and 4.94 mmol/L, 2.63 and 2.54 mmol/L, 1.53 and 1.34 mmol/L, and 1.07 and 1.65 mmol/L for females and males, respectively.ConclusionOur nomogram can be used as a simple, plausible, affordable, and widely implementable tool to predict a personalized risk of T2DM for Central Chinese residents. The successful identification of at-risk individuals and intervention at an early stage can provide advanced strategies from a predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine perspective.

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A clinical prediction nomogram to assess risk of colorectal cancer among patients with type 2 diabetes.

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A clinical prediction nomogram to assess risk of colorectal cancer among patients with type 2 diabetes.

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