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Optimizing Sequential Systemic Therapies for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Decision Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Background: An optimal sequential systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been discovered. We developed a decision model based on available clinical trials to identify an optimal risk/benefit strategy for sequences of novel systemic agents. Methods: A Markov model was built to simulate overall survival (OS) among patients with advanced HCC. Three first-line (single-agent Sorafenib or Lenvatinib, and combination of Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab) followed by five second-line treatments (Regorafenib, Cabozantinib, Ramucirumab, Nivolumab, Pembrolizumab) were compared in fifteen sequential strategies. The likelihood of transition between states (initial treatment, cancer progression, death) was derived from clinical trials. Life-year gained (LYG) was the main outcome. Rates of severe adverse events (SAEs) (?grade 3) were calculated. The innovative measure, called incremental safety-effectiveness ratio (ISER), of the two best sequential treatments was calculated as the difference in probability of SAEs divided by LYG. Results: Lenvatinib followed by Nivolumab (median OS, 27 months) was the most effective sequence, producing a LYG of 0.75, while Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab followed by Nivolumab was the safest sequence (SAEs 40%). Accordingly, the net health benefit assessed by ISER favored Lenvatinib followed by Nivolumab, compared to Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab, followed by Nivolumab in 52% of cases. Conclusion: Further sequential clinical trials or large-scale real-world studies may prove useful to evaluate the net health benefit of the best sequential treatment for advanced HCC.

SUBMITTER: Cabibbo G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7464739 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimizing Sequential Systemic Therapies for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Decision Analysis.

Cabibbo Giuseppe G Celsa Ciro C Enea Marco M Battaglia Salvatore S Rizzo Giacomo Emanuele Maria GEM Grimaudo Stefania S Matranga Domenica D Attanasio Massimo M Bruzzi Paolo P Craxì Antonio A Cammà Calogero C

Cancers 20200731 8

<i>Background:</i> An optimal sequential systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been discovered. We developed a decision model based on available clinical trials to identify an optimal risk/benefit strategy for sequences of novel systemic agents. <i>Methods:</i> A Markov model was built to simulate overall survival (OS) among patients with advanced HCC. Three first-line (single-agent Sorafenib or Lenvatinib, and combination of Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab) followed ...[more]

PMID: 32752060

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Project description:Background:Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have a poor prognosis. First-line sorafenib has been the standard of care for a decade, but the treatment landscape is expanding. This review provides a practical overview of current and future systemic treatment options for advanced HCC and their place in clinical practice. Summary:First-line sorafenib and lenvatinib have shown to improve the survival of patients with advanced HCC. In the second line, regorafenib provides benefit for patients who previously tolerated sorafenib. Anti-PD1 antibodies, nivolumab and pembrolizumab, recently became available for second-line use in the US. Ramucirumab (for patients with ?-fetoprotein [AFP] levels ?400) and cabozantinib present potential future second-line treatment options. Combinations of systemic and locoregional treatment, such as radiofrequency ablation or selective internal radiotherapy, require further research. Precision medicine has not yet been translated into clinical practice, as the most common driver mutations (TERT promoter, CTNNB1, TP53, and ARID1A mutations) have not yet been shown to be suitable therapeutic targets. However, our growing understanding of signaling pathways and efforts in drug development are expected to pave the way for precision medicine in HCC in the future. Evaluating the place for the current and novel systemic treatment options in clinical practice can be challenging due to the diverse toxicity profiles of the treatment options and characteristics of the patient population. Sorafenib data elucidate the effect patient characteristics (such as the performance score, Child-Pugh class, AFP, etiology of the underlying disease, and level of macrovascular invasion and extrahepatic spread) may have on outcomes in advanced stages. Key Messages:Lenvatinib is expected to join sorafenib as a preferred first-line treatment in advanced HCC. In the second line, the treatment of choice, regorafenib, is soon expected to be accompanied by cabozantinib and ramucirumab in patients with AFP ?400 ng/mL, whereas nivolumab and pembrolizumab present second-line alternatives in the US.

Project description:BackgroundEvidence about the relationship between albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and sequential systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in real-world Japanese clinical practice is limited.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to investigate ALBI grades and sequential treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma in Japanese clinical practice.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study using a Japanese hospital-based administration database to assess treatment sequence in patients with confirmed advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and first prescription (index line) of lenvatinib (July 2014-June 2019; N = 1558) or sorafenib (July 2014-June 2016 [sorafenib-A; N = 1511] or June 2017-June 2019 [sorafenib-B; N = 1276]). Transition to subsequent line was assessed in patients who completed the index line without transarterial chemoembolization. The ALBI grade and sequential treatment relationships were analyzed in patients with baseline and/or end of index line ALBI scores.ResultsTransition to a subsequent line was low (sorafenib-A [n = 1320]: 12.6%; sorafenib-B [n = 1049]: 40.7%; lenvatinib [n = 786]: 27.2%). In patients with baseline ALBI data (combined cohorts; n = 385), overall treatment duration was shorter in those with baseline ALBI grade 2b or 3 vs grade 1 or 2a (median: 7.1, 6.7, 4.5, and 3.0 months for grades 1, 2a, 2b, and 3, respectively). In patients with baseline and end of index line ALBI data (combined cohorts; n = 222), ALBI grade worsened during index line regardless of baseline grade. Of these patients in the sorafenib-B or lenvatinib cohorts who completed the index line without transarterial chemoembolization (n = 120), transition to a subsequent line was higher with the end of index line grade 1/2a (66.7/68.4%) than with grade 2b/3 (34.0/11.1%).ConclusionsAdequate liver function, indicated by ALBI grade, at the start and end of first-line treatment is associated with successful sequential therapy in Japanese clinical practice.

Dataset Information

Optimizing Sequential Systemic Therapies for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Decision Analysis.

Publications

Optimizing Sequential Systemic Therapies for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Decision Analysis.

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