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Optimizing Sequential Systemic Therapies for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Decision Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Background: An optimal sequential systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been discovered. We developed a decision model based on available clinical trials to identify an optimal risk/benefit strategy for sequences of novel systemic agents. Methods: A Markov model was built to simulate overall survival (OS) among patients with advanced HCC. Three first-line (single-agent Sorafenib or Lenvatinib, and combination of Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab) followed by five second-line treatments (Regorafenib, Cabozantinib, Ramucirumab, Nivolumab, Pembrolizumab) were compared in fifteen sequential strategies. The likelihood of transition between states (initial treatment, cancer progression, death) was derived from clinical trials. Life-year gained (LYG) was the main outcome. Rates of severe adverse events (SAEs) (?grade 3) were calculated. The innovative measure, called incremental safety-effectiveness ratio (ISER), of the two best sequential treatments was calculated as the difference in probability of SAEs divided by LYG. Results: Lenvatinib followed by Nivolumab (median OS, 27 months) was the most effective sequence, producing a LYG of 0.75, while Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab followed by Nivolumab was the safest sequence (SAEs 40%). Accordingly, the net health benefit assessed by ISER favored Lenvatinib followed by Nivolumab, compared to Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab, followed by Nivolumab in 52% of cases. Conclusion: Further sequential clinical trials or large-scale real-world studies may prove useful to evaluate the net health benefit of the best sequential treatment for advanced HCC.

SUBMITTER: Cabibbo G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7464739 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimizing Sequential Systemic Therapies for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Decision Analysis.

Cabibbo Giuseppe G Celsa Ciro C Enea Marco M Battaglia Salvatore S Rizzo Giacomo Emanuele Maria GEM Grimaudo Stefania S Matranga Domenica D Attanasio Massimo M Bruzzi Paolo P Craxì Antonio A Cammà Calogero C

Cancers 20200731 8

<i>Background:</i> An optimal sequential systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been discovered. We developed a decision model based on available clinical trials to identify an optimal risk/benefit strategy for sequences of novel systemic agents. <i>Methods:</i> A Markov model was built to simulate overall survival (OS) among patients with advanced HCC. Three first-line (single-agent Sorafenib or Lenvatinib, and combination of Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab) followed ...[more]

PMID: 32752060

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Project description:IntroductionAtezolizumab (ATEZO) plus bevacizumab (BEVA) represents the new standard of care for the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the choice of the second-line treatment after the failure of immunotherapy-based first-line remains elusive. Taking into account the weaknesses of the available evidence, we developed a simulation model based on available phase III randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to identify optimal risk/benefit sequential strategies.MethodsA Markov model was built to estimate the overall survival (OS) of sequential first- and second-line systemic treatments. Sequences starting with first-line ATEZO plus BEVA followed by 5 second-line treatments (sorafenib [SORA], lenvatinib [LENVA], regorafenib, cabozantinib, and ramucirumab) were compared. The probability of transition between states (initial treatment, cancer progression, and death) was derived from RCTs. Life-year gained (LYG) was the main outcome. Rates of severe adverse events (SAEs) (≥ grade 3) were calculated. The incremental safety-effectiveness ratio (ISER) was calculated as the difference in probability of SAEs divided by LYG between the 2 most effective sequences.ResultsATEZO plus BEVA followed by LENVA (median OS, 24 months) or SORA (median OS, 23 months) was the most effective sequence, producing a LYG of 0.50 and 0.42 year, respectively. ATEZO plus BEVA followed by SORA was the safest sequence (SAEs 63%). At a willingness-to-risk threshold of 10% of SAEs for LYG, ATEZO plus BEVA followed by second-line SORA was favored in 72% of cases, while at a threshold of 30% of SAEs for LYG, ATEZO plus BEVA followed by second-line LENVA was favored in 69% of cases.ConclusionOur simulation model provides a strong rationale to support ongoing trials evaluating second-line tyrosine-kinase inhibitors after first-line ATEZO plus BEVA. Future evidence from ongoing RCTs and prospective real-world studies are needed to prove the net health benefit of sequential treatment options for advanced HCC.

Project description:Background:Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have a poor prognosis. First-line sorafenib has been the standard of care for a decade, but the treatment landscape is expanding. This review provides a practical overview of current and future systemic treatment options for advanced HCC and their place in clinical practice. Summary:First-line sorafenib and lenvatinib have shown to improve the survival of patients with advanced HCC. In the second line, regorafenib provides benefit for patients who previously tolerated sorafenib. Anti-PD1 antibodies, nivolumab and pembrolizumab, recently became available for second-line use in the US. Ramucirumab (for patients with ?-fetoprotein [AFP] levels ?400) and cabozantinib present potential future second-line treatment options. Combinations of systemic and locoregional treatment, such as radiofrequency ablation or selective internal radiotherapy, require further research. Precision medicine has not yet been translated into clinical practice, as the most common driver mutations (TERT promoter, CTNNB1, TP53, and ARID1A mutations) have not yet been shown to be suitable therapeutic targets. However, our growing understanding of signaling pathways and efforts in drug development are expected to pave the way for precision medicine in HCC in the future. Evaluating the place for the current and novel systemic treatment options in clinical practice can be challenging due to the diverse toxicity profiles of the treatment options and characteristics of the patient population. Sorafenib data elucidate the effect patient characteristics (such as the performance score, Child-Pugh class, AFP, etiology of the underlying disease, and level of macrovascular invasion and extrahepatic spread) may have on outcomes in advanced stages. Key Messages:Lenvatinib is expected to join sorafenib as a preferred first-line treatment in advanced HCC. In the second line, the treatment of choice, regorafenib, is soon expected to be accompanied by cabozantinib and ramucirumab in patients with AFP ?400 ng/mL, whereas nivolumab and pembrolizumab present second-line alternatives in the US.

Project description:Background and aimsSystemic combinations have recently brought significant therapeutic benefits for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC). To design the most effective combination regimens, a systematic review (PROSPERO ID: CRD42022321949) was conducted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of systemic combinations on aHCC.MethodsWe retrieved all the studies from PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) using the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms until December 21, 2022. The effect indicators (hazard ratio [HR], relative risk [RR], and median) were pooled by a fixed- or random-effects model. A subgroup analysis was conducted according to types and specific therapies.ResultsIn total, 88 eligible studies were selected from 7249 potential records. Each kind of combination treatment (chemotherapy plus chemotherapy, targeted plus immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy, targeted plus chemotherapy, and targeted plus targeted therapy) had a better objective response rate (ORR) in patients with aHCC, compared to the monotherapy mostly with sorafenib (RR: 1.57 [1.44-1.71]; I 2 = 30%). Of those, targeted plus ICI therapy showed better therapeutic efficiency in overall survival (median: 15.02 [12.67-17.38]), progression-free survival (median: 7.08 [6.42-7.74]), and ORR (RR: 1.81 [1.55-2.13]), compared to the monotherapy. Specifically, Atezo plus Beva showed all those benefits. Our pooled result showed all the combinations had increased ≥3 Grade treatment-related adverse events (TrAEs), with an RR of 1.25 [95% CI: 1.15-1.36], compared to the monotherapy.ConclusionThe systemic combinations, especially targeted plus ICI therapy, including Atezo plus Beva, significantly improve clinical outcomes but increase side effects in patients with aHCC. Future trials should concentrate on improvement in therapeutic efficiency and reduction of toxicity of targeted plus ICI therapy.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero, identifier CRD42022321949.

Dataset Information

Optimizing Sequential Systemic Therapies for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Decision Analysis.

Publications

Optimizing Sequential Systemic Therapies for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Decision Analysis.

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